Jigish Sonagara

I’ve been turning down all media requests for a post election analysis but talk of whether alliances will hold post elections reminded me of something I wrote 26 years ago - before a Lok Sabha Election result.   The basic premise: one who holds 30 seats may have the same power, or even more, as compared to someone who holds 245 seats.   A mathematical Power Index explains how   Quote Let’s get on with the “Power Indices” of the various political parties.   Think of it this way : suppose you require a 50% plus majority to form a government and there are 3 parties in the parliament with the following seat tally : 44%, 39% and 17%.   Now, any two of these can join together to form the government and therefore all three of them have exactly equal power, no matter that Party 3 has got less than half the number of seats that the first two have. This is a concept that is of use in any ‘majority wins’ decision rule from shareholder resolutions to jury decisions.   Suppose there are 4 parties in the fray this time around: A, B, C and D parties, having 35%, 34%, 17% and 14% of the seats resp. Again if a simple majority is needed to form a government, any two out of A, B & C can form a government whereas the Party D’s support is never really crucial to anyone.   If this party’s 14% is added onto the percentages of any of the first three parties, the sum does not exceed 50% and any larger coalition of parties doesn’t require its support anyway. Party D is therefore called a ‘dummy’ - an apt term for someone whose vote can never change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   The dummy has no power, while all the other three parties i.e. A, B and C have equal power.   This is inspite of the fact that Party C has far fewer seats than A and B and only a few more than the smallest one i.e. Party D   For those interested, there is a technical concept called the Banzhaf Power Index (BPI) of a group, party or person which is defined as the number of ways in which that group, party or person can change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   In the preceding example, the BPI of parties A, B and C are equal and that of Party D is zero.    In fact as an individual MP, you are better-off being a part of Party C than Party A or B because as part of the government you get a disproportionate share of the goodies. This is exactly what happened in U.P. where virtually every MLA of a marginal party who joined the BJP government was made a minister - something that was a remote dream for most BJP MLAs.   Unquote (First Global's weekly 'Markets, Majorities and Maths', January 1998)   Thus if a few smaller partners can hold whichever coalition government to ransom, it introduces uncertainty.   “The more things change, the more they stay the same” Hence, I can repeat a 1998 piece which has contemporary parallels   We may be in for some interesting times.   History also shows coalition governments have been pretty good for the economy and markets.

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Had a wonderful discussion with Julian Gordon VP LF Decentralized Trust about LFDT india community, blockchain adoption in India and global, enterprise to government use cases. Tokenization is going to transform asset management and future of banking. Let us know how we can make stronger and impactful ecosystem in India , share input, feedback to improve LFDT India community in the next year. #blockchain #hyperledger #india #LFDT #web3 LF Decentralized Trust India Chapter FSV Capital FSV Labs India Blockchain Forum Prasanna Lohar Daniela Barbosa

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This is an important quote from #Derek #Sivers on what we should strive for. DoorDarshi India Fund DoorDarshi Advisors

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From its roots under a banyan tree to becoming Asia's pioneer stock exchange, Yesterday, we honored the remarkable journey of the Bombay Stock Exchange on its foundation day. Backstory: In the early 19th century, Bombay transformed into a bustling capitalist hub, attracting global traders with its strategic harbor and evolving infrastructure. Amid this economic surge, the Indian stock market took shape, with tradable securities and promise-to-pay notes. Cotton played a pivotal role in Bombay’s rise. By the 1840s, Colaba became the center of this thriving trade, and six Indian brokers laid the groundwork for an organized stock market. One key figure was Seth Premchand Roychand, who began trading cotton under a banyan tree at Elphinstone Circle in 1849. This banyan tree, symbolizing wisdom and unity, became a meeting place for traders. In 1875, twenty-two brokers, including Premchand, formed the Native Share and Stockbrokers Association, evolving into the BSE, Asia's first stock exchange. By 1899, the association moved to Dalal Street, thanks to financial support from Sir Dinshaw Maneckji Petit. The Swadeshi movement and the Tata Iron & Steel Co. IPO in 1907 marked significant milestones, propelling the BSE from its humble beginnings to the iconic PJ Tower. Post source: bizdom #BombayStockExchange #BSE #foundationday #financialmarkets #history #India #stockmarket

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https://lnkd.in/dX6WyXPA Nimesh Kampani Founding Partner 108 Capital takes you on a journey through India's economic landscape, sharing the investment thesis of Indian Growth focused VC FUND. 📈 Episode out soon with Jyoti Rai 🇮🇳 and Nimesh Kampani #Finance #IndianFinanceMarket #FinanceTalks #Finance #IndiasFinance #FinancialStystem #India #Business #Investors #BusinessPodcast #Trending

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Hear it directly from the experts who manage sizeable money. Get answers to your questions and hear their views on market, economy, how the research teams work, how they manage funds and many more questions that you as investors would be eager to hear. Stay Tuned! Subscribe to our YouTube Channel and press the bell icon to get notified when the video goes live. Click https://lnkd.in/grN6A9NP #investing #investments #SIP #mutualfund #mutualfunds #financialplanning

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🇮🇳Indias Footwear market is Rs 76000 Crs growing at 10-11% CAGR ,Indias per capita consumption is lowest at 1.9 pairs vis-a-vis global avg of 3 pairs indicating big headroom for huge growth...branded mkt is of Rs 27kCrs...

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A significant milestone on the Sarvagram journey and we are very excited to continue our support to the stellar team. When we invested in 2022, we saw a distinctive company which was serving an unaddressed segment in a very large market i.e middle class households in rural India. The narrative around rural financing has primarily focused on farmers and low-income populations. However, there's a huge gap in addressing the needs of the aspirational rural middle class—the 80-100 million households with annual incomes ranging from ₹3-5L, spread across multiple income sources. This demographic is eager to improve both their income levels and quality of life, yet their financial needs have often gone unmet. Banks and microfinance institutions have targeted agriculture or low-income women but the rural middle class is a large whitespace. Though they may have access to product financing like two-wheeler or car loans, a significant portion of their aspirations remains unaddressed. SarvaGram is stepping into this gap with a holistic, customer-centric platform that offers a diverse range of financial services—from lending products and farm mechanization solutions to insurance offerings — as opposed to a mono-line strategy, which we believe works better in denser urban markets. In addition to our thesis on rural lending, we have found working with the stellar team, led by Utpal Isser and Sameer Mishra, a collaborative and insightful partnership. Their exceptional execution and understanding of the rural market have enabled SarvaGram to create lasting impact and drive sustainable growth. It has been equally enjoyable to learn from their experiences and we truly appreciate the openness of team. We have also appreciated working with our co-passengers from #Elevar, #Elevation and #Temasek and look forward to the #Peak XV team. With this fundraise, SarvaGram is on track to continue its impressive growth trajectory and we are excited to be part of this journey of SarvaGram driving meaningful change for rural middle-class households. Utpal Isser SarvaGram Sreeraman V TVS Capital Funds #FundingSuccess #RuralIndia

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My recent interaction with moneycontrol.com on their 'Opening Bell Live' show to discuss the rate outlook in the upcoming year, its implications on the banking sector, and capital markets outlook for 2025. Key highlights: 1. We expect 50-100 bps rate cut in 2025 basis macro data 2. Margin expansion for banks to be immediate post CRR cut 3. Private sector better poised to deliver in a competitive environment and have valuations in their favour 4. 2025 will be stock pickers markets as economic tailwinds are behind us and earnings growth will be polarised. Investors should align their portfolio towards companies which are better placed to deliver earnings growth 5. Quick Commerce sector is increasingly becoming competitive and might get into a discounting race similar to ecommerce growth 10 years back Watch my interview here: https://lnkd.in/dWZ-iwZT (00:31:10-00:47:30) Ambit Private Limited #assetmanagement #wealthmanagement #familyoffice #equities

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Detailed discussion with NDTV Profit on Q2FY25 results and the outlook for various sectors.

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Case Study: Portfolio (mis)management by a reputed wealth management firm We onboarded a client with a portfolio of around INR 50 Crores, earlier managed by a big & reputed wealth management company. The portfolio was constructed for retirement purposes with 12 years of investment horizon. The risk profile of the client is moderate. When we did the portfolio health check-up, we found that there were close to 50 products in the portfolio. 40% allocation in AIFs and 20% average in debt. The annualized returns were around 10% over the last 5 years. All investments were in commission-based regular plans generating a commission of at least INR 50 LAKHS ANNUALLY for the wealth management company & client had NO idea of the hefty commissions going out every year. What's wrong with this portfolio? - Over-diversification: An ideal portfolio shouldn't have more than 15 products (max. 20 depending upon certain cases). When you invest in mutual funds, PMSs, or AIFs, the fund managers will spread the investments across multiple securities. A concentrated portfolio with high-conviction products brings better results. This is a simple understanding then why so many products? Usually, a new product offers a higher commission to distributors. This becomes a strong incentive to keep introducing new products to the portfolio. - Low returns: The underperformance was due to poor-performing equity investments across portfolio. Why these schemes were not changed could be due to the lack of focus of the relationship manager on the portfolio or higher trail commission. - Low liquidity: Excessive exposure to AIFs and some locked-in debt products offered no liquidity to swiftly change allocation in the portfolio if any opportunity arises. - Unsuitable portfolio construction: Despite a moderate risk profile, the portfolio consisted of high-risk AIFs and only around 20% in debt. This is certainly not aligned with the client’s interests. Again, reason could be that AIFs pay higher commissions than PMSs which pay higher commissions than MFs. Our solution: - Asset allocation alignment: Created a broader level asset allocation strategy across equity, debt, and gold to align with the risk profile and investment objective of the client. -Shift to zero-commission Direct Plans: Created a plan to shift all the investments gradually to direct plans of MFs, PMS, and AIFs. This will save the client upwards of INR 50 lakhs in commission payout and will be added to the portfolio gains. For our services, the client pays fees directly to us which is less than 25% of the commissions saved. - Minimize shifting costs: We removed all the underperforming funds by minimizing tax and exit load impact. - Focused portfolio: Reduced the number of products to 14 after thorough research.  The exercise took some time to complete but it was worth the effort to see a satisfied client who knows his retirement portfolio is in reliable hands. #casestudy #wealthmanagement #truemindcapital

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WealthMax by Bajaj Capital Ltd La Premier: A true story of how vision of Sanjiv Bajaj coupled with the dynamism of Uttam Agarwal, at gave my team and me Aabhinna Suresh Khare the opportunity to build a fabulous product thats creating waves in Wealth Industry 🇮🇳 🇮🇳 🇮🇳 𝐄𝐋𝐄𝐕𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐋𝐄𝐆𝐀𝐂𝐘: 𝐂𝐑𝐀𝐅𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐈𝐍𝐃𝐈𝐀’𝐒 𝐔𝐋𝐓𝐑𝐀-𝐖𝐄𝐀𝐋𝐓𝐇𝐘-𝐔𝐋𝐓𝐑𝐀 𝐑𝐈𝐂𝐇 🇮🇳 🇮🇳 🇮🇳 FACT 𝑰𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒂 𝒉𝒂𝒔 797,714 𝑯𝑵𝑰𝒔 (𝒂𝒔𝒔𝒆𝒕𝒔 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒉 $1𝑴+) 8.35 Crore Rs. 𝒂𝒏𝒅 13,263 𝑼𝑯𝑵𝑾𝑰𝒔 (𝒏𝒆𝒕 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒉 $30𝑴+) i.e 250 Cr Rs 𝒂𝒔 𝒐𝒇 2022-23 𝐓𝐡𝐞 6 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 of an HNI UHNI are 6️⃣ Portfolio Overlap: Investors unknowingly duplicate investments across multiple mutual funds, as they don't know if AMCs are investing in the same stocks. 5️⃣ Fund Selection: With 1,386 mutual fund schemes in India, selecting the right funds becomes overwhelming - like finding a needle in a haystack. 4️⃣ True Diversification: While everyone talks about diversification, understanding the correlation between investments is difficult due to lack of proper analysis tools. 3️⃣ Market Monitoring: Keeping up with fast-moving markets during volatile times (Ukraine-Russia War, Israeli conflict, US Elections) is nearly impossible to track effectively. 2️⃣ Sector Selection: Different sectors perform differently each year, and conflicting advice from various fund managers makes it difficult to know where to invest. 1️⃣ Personalization: Generic investment advice rarely fits specific individual situations and goals, and general tips don't work for personalized portfolios. We have solved all these challenges with the Wealthmax Tool. To read more about it visit here https://lnkd.in/ga2aW6gs

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MSCI crossed the 20 years in India milestone and Baer Pettit our President and COO, joined us for the celebrations across our offices in India. Baer Pettit spoke with ram sahgal, Sr Asst Editor at Livemint Some of key insights from his interview 🌏 India is ranked as the sixth largest by weight in the MSCI ACWI IMI (all-country world investable market index) and the second largest in the MSCI EM IMI (emerging market investable market index), rising from the 13th and 4th positions each in 2020. 🌏 The #MSCI India IMI Index, which covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the Indian equity universe, is a component of these broader indexes and represents the Indian equity opportunity set. 🌏 MSCI private-capital data indicates that Indian private markets have also seen substantial growth over the past decade, paralleling the expansion observed in its public markets 🌏 Private investment in #energy #transition projects, particularly in India, remains relatively modest which may have opportunities in the upcoming years 🌏 Broader trend suggests that India is poised to become an increasingly important part of foreign investors' portfolios. 🌏 #Privateassets are becoming a larger share of #institutional portfolios which leads to the need for greater transparency and tools to help investors track their investments, support their strategic decisions, but also for more specialized tools in areas like pricing, liquidity, attribution, and risk. #MSCI #Index #Analystics #PrivateCapital #ESG #Investment #passiveinvesting #ETFs #India

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Always a privilege to meet the CEO Sandeep Tandon of quant Mutual Fund (03.08.2024) He always says Timing is everything.... When we met him he discussed and shared following things with us 👇 ✅ Many people think we adopt momentum strategies, but we are predominantly a behavioural fund house. ✅ With the help of our analytics, we try to capture all the sectors and stocks trading in admired and neglected territories. ✅ If the stocks move into the most admired zone, we exit them, and if they are in the most hated zone, we turn aggressive buyers for them. ✅ Timing, in this context, becomes a symphony of intuition and critical analysis, as it helps one harmonize with the markets and seize the opportunities they present. ✅ Investing success depends on the ability to hear every footstep of the markets and act in concert with their movements. ✅ There is considerable academic research with empirical evidence that the biased focus on conventional fundamental analysis helps managers generate alpha by buying at the right time, but their selling decisions underperform substantially, even relative to random selling. Put bluntly, a random set of sell decisions would do better than the average money manager. ✅ We believe this is a significantly overlooked factor in investing, and one, that we want to move beyond, by giving primary importance to the timing of our decisions. ✅ It is the essence of adaptive asset allocation - adapt and generate alpha, or underperform. ✅ Though it's conventionally considered a risky strategy, we have a different perspective - timing and investing are inseparable activities. ✅ The entire global financial system is based on the same principle which we explicitly state as a core part of our money management - 'timing is everything'. ✅ Long-term investing is about staying invested in markets while dynamically timing the asset allocation and sector rotation. ✅ This approach may have worked during a unidirectional multi-decade trend, however, in the period of radical change that we are in now, dynamic money management has become necessary. ✅ The science of timing needs to be given focus at par with other dimensions of investing. ✅ Effective money management is about investing based on how these ripples in time manifest through the dimensions of risk, liquidity and valuations.

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Happy Diwali and Shubh Samvat 2081 . We are going into Samvat 2081 with a consensus that markets will be challenged and will mean revert, leading to an underpowered year coming up. Predictions are at best intelligent guesstimates so we will refrain from that. What is clear is that, some counter cyclical measures are needed from India, both on the fiscal and monetary front, to tackle the issue of "not as sharp growth in aggregate demand." The festival season is key to the annual consumption numbers and the combination of 35 lakh marriages and around Rs 4.5 lakh crores of private consumption expenditure is expected to provide some relief from a slowing growth trajectory . China is ready with the next stimulus bazooka, post the US elections results next week. US fiscal profligacy has reached a level where 23% of the Federal revenues are going into servicing the US National Debt interest payouts. Fiscal deficit , running at $ 1.83 trillion , contains a $ 1 trillion interest payout , which exceeds both the defense and the health expenditure in the US Budget. Whoever wins next week, the US fiscal deficit will touch $ 2 trillion by September 2025. Trump and Harris policies will add another $7.5 and $ 4 trillion respectively to US fiscal deficits over the next decade till 2035 as per non partisan calculations . US debt is now increasing at $ 1 trillion every 100 days. Something has to give. Anything done to tackle this could tip the global flows balance . Central banks meantime are gorging on Gold at all time high prices, with Gold proportion of central bank FX reserves rising to 11% . These debt levels have no easy solutions and any government trying to tackle fiscal deficits will face a severe voter backlash. China's ruling party faces a huge debt level but has the military might to stay in power . Enough of these sombre thoughts. Enjoy the long Diwali weekend and remember, most of our fears never come true. Focus back on your own financial goals and create a financial plan to meet those . The rest is just so much guesstimates . Happy Diwali, Happy New Samvat, Many Fetes !

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