Armish Sonkar

Climate, Protocol and Exponential Thinking Every time I listen to the trio of Mr. Nandan, Pramod Varma and sujith nair, a few nodes get unlocked. I have had the enviable privilege of being at this fountainhead a few times. Every time, a few vistas open up that help us to see how we can solve problems of population scale and at near 0 friction rates. Below are notes from 1.5 days spent at BeckN Node Zero Climate Conference. The protocol revolution v2 in India is still in its early days. If you are a founder or a VC, keen to explore this, drop me a line Special thanks to Anjali Bansal and Sanjay Purohit who presented on climate and exponential thinking 💡 DPI 2.0 ** India has solved access to identity - Aadhar ** India has solved access to money transfer - UPI ** India has solved access to trust - Digi Locker The 2.0 of all this is now beginning to manifest itself - DigiYatra, Credit on UPI, DigiLocker ++. It is amazing when you start to think of the number of successful companies that have scaled on the combinatorial power of these stacks - Flipkart to Zomato to Zerodha 📌 Most exciting new DPI - UEI. Think of UEI as the internet of energy. A protocol layer of bits built on atoms of the energy grid. While atoms of energy flow through cables, the bits of transfer, recon and payment continue to be archaic. As energy generation gets more de-centralised (Solar Panels for example), the ledger of energy cannot be a 2-way line anymore. Reach out to Akhil Jp and schedule atleast 2 hours 😀 🏝 Climate ▶ India’s culture has been of sustainability - We use every part of a tree, most families in India have a pile of shopping bags and re-use it. Not to forget the haggling with kabbadiwala for newspapers. This behaviour may have been prompted by constraints but is now the right behaviour ▶ The climate lens cannot be without capitalism - We need to balance all the three 3Ps - People, Profit and Planet. I personally like this so much more than ESG! ESG has become too generic and there is too much focus on G ▶ India cannot decarbonize. We can have a lower carbon footprint growth. Our founders may also be better off trying to solve this problem than a de-carbonisation problem ⏫ Exponential Thinking ▶ The Domino Effect - Mini to Mega - How can you topple a 10 meter tall domino with a 5 Cm starting domino? All you need are 13 dominos which are 1.5x taller than the previous one! Power of compounding - 1.5^13 = ~200x. (10 M is 33 ft!) a. Don’t stop the compounding b. Focus on the alignment that will ensure the kinetic energy is not dissipated c. A 100x outcome is possible with exponential thinking - Not N^2 but 2^N d. Please watch this video - https://lnkd.in/gebDTYRf ▶ Exponential problems need exponential solutions ▶ DPIs can solve exponential problems as an orchestrator and not as a conductor! ▶ A garden needs a gardener, a forest needs only enabling Thanks to Sattva Consulting team for putting this together

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Nifty this Week: Where's the Trend? - 03 May'24   Entire Nifty & Sectoral Analysis - https://lnkd.in/gm3pkNfR The benchmark Nifty reacts very sharp on last Friday's session to bringback some doubt to the stability of the underlying trend. A down move of more than 200 points in Friday's sessions comes immediately after the index hits a new life high raises questions whether the recent rally will sustain or not. There is no doubt that the underlying volatility or intra-week choppiness will persist and so you need to be very good with your stock pickings to make the next week a profitable one.  Reach me on Whatsapp - https://wa.me/919836947400

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🚀 Building a RAG Application with LlamaIndex To help AI enthusiasts dive into this concept, Analytics Vidhya curated a foundational certification course that provides an in-depth overview of building a RAG application. This course covers everything from the core principles and hands-on experience with LlamaIndex (formerly GPT Index) Link - https://lnkd.in/gMZGUDik 🔗 Key learning’s from the course - ✔️ Retrieval-based Models: Retrieve relevant information from a knowledge base (documents, databases). ✔️ Generative Models: Generate natural language responses based on the retrieved context. ✔️ LlamaIndex: An innovative framework that bridges LLMs and custom data sources, offering streamlined document retrieval and query processing. 🛠️ Steps to Build a RAG Application: 1️⃣ Data Ingestion: Use Llama Index to load your data, whether it’s in the form of PDFs, web pages, or structured documents. 2️⃣ Indexing: Build an index over the data for efficient retrieval. 3️⃣ Querying: Leverage the power of Llama Index to query your index with natural language questions, combining retrieval with generative responses. 4️⃣ Integration with LLM: Integrate with a large language model (LLM) to generate more coherent and contextually aware answers, using the retrieved data as context. #AI #MachineLearning #RAG #LLMs #LlamaIndex #NLP #GenerativeAI

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What do you think of mutual funds with traders mindset: Sebi suspects front-running in Sandeep Tandon-owned Quant Mutual Fund; conducts search and seizure operations https://lnkd.in/gEQFPn2s

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Tech Sovereign Data Exchange: Empowering Digital Sovereignty and Data Monetization in India In the digital age, data is a critical asset. To ensure sustainable and equitable use of data, India must establish a Tech Data Exchange Platform. This platform will recognize digital identity, ensure data sovereignty, and empower individuals to monetize their contributions. Key Components: 1. Digital Identity & Blockchain: Secure digital identities to ensure transparency. 2. Smart Contracts:Automated, fair compensation for data usage. 3. Regulatory Oversight: Compliance with privacy laws like GDPR and India's PDP Bill. 4. Fair Revenue Models: Transition from ad-based to equitable systems like subscriptions. 5. Transparency & Accountability: Blockchain for traceable transactions. 6. Financial Inclusion: New income opportunities for underserved regions. By focusing on individual empowerment, privacy, and fair monetization, India can lead in creating a sustainable data economy, aligning with global trends like the EU Data Strategy and CCPA. This initiative is crucial for economic reforms and widening financial inclusion.

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India's near-term growth outlook is pegged as being upbeat basis three expectations : 1) Strong private consumption recovery, 2) rise of business capex, and 3) Averting an export recession. What are high frequency data telling about these hopes? Data underscore emerging pockets of weakness in urban consumption and ebbing consumer confidence; business capex revival is finally visible in high frequency data, imparting longevity and quality to India’s investment cycle; and, services exports continue to mitigate lacklustre goods exports performance. We maintain that FY24 growth will be weaker than the RBI's forecast, but strong nevertheless. Read in our latest Asia macro weekly: India's growth: hopes and facts https://lnkd.in/dYgZ5F6E #india #growth #rbi #outlook

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𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐬 𝐐𝐮𝐨? 𝐑𝐁𝐈’𝐬 𝐁𝐢𝐠 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐓𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲 RBI gears up for its monetary policy announcement on December 6, 2024. Will economic cues prompt an interest rate cut, or will caution prevail? Here’s what’s driving the debate. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐚 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐮𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 ➡𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐒𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧: GDP growth dipped to 5.4% (Q2 FY2024-25), far below the 6.5% forecast. Sectors like manufacturing and construction could gain from cheaper credit, driving jobs and growth. ➡𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: Retail inflation eased to 5.49% in September, with food prices stabilizing thanks to better supplies. ➡𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬: Cutting rates aligns India with global easing cycles, boosting competitiveness and spurring domestic demand. ➡𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐭: Lower borrowing costs could enhance profits in sectors like real estate, IT, and autos, lifting market sentiment. ➡𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞: With revenue receipts up 8.7% (April–October 2024), reduced borrowing costs could ease fiscal pressure. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐚 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐮𝐭? ➡𝐅𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐬: Capital expenditure fell 14.7%, highlighting sluggish fiscal momentum. Achieving budgeted targets without significant fiscal support remains tough ➡𝐑𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤: Lower rates may weaken the Rupee, deterring foreign investment and fueling import costs (latest FX rates https://lnkd.in/gcbXPBWM). ➡𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬: While moderating, inflation could surge again, especially in volatile commodities like crude oil. ➡𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐓𝐚𝐱 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐥𝐞𝐬: Tax revenue rose just 1.2%, hinting at weaker earnings. Fiscal prudence is key. 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐁𝐈'𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧: If rates are cut, stock markets could rally, credit conditions may improve, and 𝒔𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒔 𝒍𝒊𝒌𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑰𝑻 might benefit significantly. Positive. However, a weaker Rupee could increase import costs and drive inflation higher. Negative. If rates stay unchanged, Rupee stability could help control inflation. Positive. But high borrowing costs may stifle growth in 𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒖𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒓𝒂𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒖𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒆, 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆-𝒔𝒆𝒏𝒔𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒔𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒔 could face setbacks. Negative. RBI’s call will shape the economy and markets—what’s your prediction? 👇 Stay updated with 1 Finance for more insights affecting your personal finances.

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Much ado about FDI flows redux? In 2015, the Financial Times ran a story of India overtaking China’s FDI flows, and it was exemplified to affirm the success of the "Make in India" theme. Ironically, from such exuberance to the recent exasperation over contracting FDIs, the sentiment has shifted diametrically. This latest report in India Today echoes what we wrote nine years ago: “Much ado about foreign investment flows" (https://lnkd.in/dPF6wzpv). The India Today story draws from one of our recent research work.

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Central bank digital currencies (CBDC) come with significant benefits like reduced settlement risks and increased financial inclusion. However, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra warns that CBDCs could potentially become "safe havens" during crises. This could lead to higher risks for bank deposits, especially uninsured ones, making them more susceptible to withdrawals and even potential bank runs. (https://lnkd.in/dN6gjVvX) #CBDC #RBI #FinancialInclusion

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Master Risk Management with Financial Derivatives This informative Video, led by industry expert Shri Subhash Chander Kalia (former ED Union Bank of India), dives deep into the world of financial derivatives and their crucial role in risk management. Valuable Downloads:  1. PPT on Financial Derivatives and Risk Hedging Strategies 2. Summary of the Webinar 3. Dos and Don’ts for Bankers 4. Glossary of Terms 👩‍🎓🧑‍🎓 Enroll today and let’s grow together

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Good read on #ULI Thanks Raghu Mohan Business Standard for citing our work Indicus Centre for Financial Inclusion (ICFI) on the need for more data from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on #FinancialInclusion This from Rajesh Bansal CEO Reserve Bank Innovation Hub (RBIH) is the crux on #ULI: “Data is just the starting point. The bigger issue is REs must rewire what’s under their bonnets.” And lets you on what’s below the radar (and which also amounts to part-censure in a way): “Businesses (of banks) are silo-ed and have to be integrated. Otherwise, it will not work to its potential. We have demonstrated to banks how this can be done. Now, it’s up to them to do the needful.” It can take the bank-fintech partnership to a higher orbit. Article also has views from Rajiv Anand Amit Arora Ritesh Jain and Gurumurthy R

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Dear All, In our recent interaction with moneycontrol.com, we have decoded how the key Indices - Nifty & Bank Nifty would be behaving in the coming week, keeping in mind the derivative data positioning. Geopolitical tensions between Iran-Israel have led to weakness in the global markets and simultaneously caused a rebound in Brent Crude Oil prices - both of which have been negative for the markets. Additionally the much discussed steps to curb the sporadic rise of the Derivative Segment has finally been announced by SEBI which has added to the pressure on the overall markets causing Nifty to finally end the week closer to 25000 levels - a 4.5% cut from higher levels. Sectorally, we feel healthcare, IT, and Pharma could continue its positive momentum in the coming week. Chart patterns suggest that going ahead, 24700-24800 will serve as crucial support & 20 Day EMA around 25500 would act as a crucial resistance, and one can expect Indices to continue being volatile in this range untill the uncertainty from the Global Front subsides. https://lnkd.in/dbU87fY2 In our recent interaction with Moneycontrol, we have decoded 1) How the key Indices - Nifty, Bank Nifty would be behaving in the coming week ? 2) View on Nifty IT & PSU Banking space. 3) View on Godrej Properties and M&M Fin 4) Top picks for the week Regards, SBI Securities Research Desk Deepak Lalla Suresh Shukla Sunny Agrawal Amit Shah Sourabh Surendranath Manoj Mahadeshwar Kapil Tandon Nikesh Aggarwal AMIT BURMAN Rahul J. BALAJI B Saneeca Fernandes KulBhaskar Singh Prajapati Kale #sectorrotation #topstocks #niftyview #Globalview #optiondata #Indiavix #banknifty #IT #sectorinfocus #mmfin #Godrejproperties

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"Thrilled to have joined ET Now Swadesh on their show 'Khara Sauda' alongside DIMPY KALRA l, Abhishek Satya Vratam and Srishti Sharma . We delved deep into the fascinating world of FII data and explored how short covering could potentially drive significant surges in stock prices. A dynamic discussion that sheds light on the intricacies of the market! #Finance #StockMarket #ETNowSwadesh #KharaSauda"

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ULI: The Next Big Thing in Lending and Its Comparison to UPI and JAM The RBI's Unified Lending Interface (ULI) could transform the lending landscape, similar to how UPI revolutionized payments in India. However, drawing parallels between ULI and UPI or the JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhar, and Mobile) trinity requires a closer examination, especially when considering the complexities of secured lending. JAM & UPI vs. ULI: A Complex Comparison Aadhar succeeded due to a government mandate, making its integration easy. UPI, while voluntary, quickly gained traction thanks to demonetization and platforms like Paytm. In both cases, the RBI and government’s control over key players made data sharing simpler, ensuring success despite technological challenges. However, the lending industry—especially in the realm of secured lending—is an entirely different game. Unlike UPI, which deals primarily with digital transactions, secured lending involves a labyrinth of documentation and these documents are often spread across different jurisdictions and institutions. The legal and technical evaluations of these documents still require physical verification, and the human element remains crucial for assessing risk and providing comfort to bankers. To achieve the same success as Aadhar or UPI, ULI must bring together three major stakeholders and employ both carrots and sticks: 1. State Governments: The first hurdle is gaining the cooperation of state governments. Land records and other critical data are held in silos across different states. Whether through an act of parliament or a concerted effort to build consensus among states, the government must play a pivotal role in making these records accessible. 2. Lenders: While the senior management of lenders may be pushing for digital transformation, there is still significant resistance within these institutions. The diversity of technology partners and the complexity of integrating new systems further complicate the situation. 3. RBI - The RBI itself will need to push lenders to move beyond traditional underwriting methods. A shift in approach, encouraging the adoption of alternative underwriting practices, similar to those used by many fintech companies today, is necessary to make ULI a reality. ULI has the potential to revolutionize the lending process, but its success will hinge on collaboration among these stakeholders and overcoming the inherent complexities of secured lending. However, parallels can be drawn with OCEN and I am concerned that if relevant stakeholders are not brought on the same page, ULI may face a similar fate and lose steam in the long run. #UnifiedLendingInterface #DigitalTransformation #FintechInnovation #SecuredLending #UPIAndJAM

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🤑Quant Mutual Fund, led by founder Sandeep Tandon, has gained attention for its impressive returns. 🔐The key to their success? The innovative VLRT Framework. 😼Tandon, with his extensive background in quantitative research, developed this data-driven approach to revolutionize investment strategies in India's mutual fund industry. __ 👇🏻Unveiling the VLRT Framework The secret behind Quant Mutual Fund's stellar performance lies in its proprietary VLRT Framework. This multifaceted approach to investment decision-making stands for: 1️⃣Valuation (V) 👉🏻Core Principle: Getting the right price for a stock is paramount. Implementation: Quant employs sophisticated data-driven models to assess a company's intrinsic value. __ 2️⃣Liquidity (L) 👉🏻Core Principle: The ease of buying or selling a stock is crucial for portfolio management. Implementation: The fund prioritizes companies with good trading volume and market depth. __ 3️⃣Risk Appetite (R) 👉🏻Core Principle: Understanding and aligning with an investor's risk tolerance is essential. Implementation: Quant tailors its investment strategies based on comprehensive risk profiling of individual investors and market conditions. __ 4️⃣Time (T) 👉🏻Core Principle: Investment decisions are made with a long-term perspective. Implementation: The framework incorporates predictive models that consider how various factors might evolve. __ 📈VLRT in Action: A Multi-Dimensional Research Approach Quant Mutual Fund doesn't just stop at the VLRT framework. They implement it through a comprehensive research methodology: [1] Multi-Asset Analysis Evaluates various asset classes including stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Enables the creation of truly diversified portfolios that can weather different market conditions. __ [2] Multi-Manager Approach Leverages a team of specialized analysts and fund managers. Ensures a well-rounded perspective, combining diverse expertise and viewpoints. __ [3] Multivariate Models Utilizes complex statistical and machine learning models. Analyzes numerous data points to predict future performance and identify investment opportunities. __ 💰And the Proof is in the Performance! 👉🏻While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, Quant Mutual Fund's track record speaks volumes about the efficacy of the VLRT framework! Several of their equity funds have consistently outperformed their benchmarks. 👉🏻The fund house has seen significant growth in Assets Under Management (AUM), indicating increasing investor confidence. (Note: Investors should always do their research and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions.) Follow Dhruv Bhatia & hit the bell icon! #business #investing #mutualfunds

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Most of the Sunday went in the analysis and the followup video, but going to sleep with a contended feeling - This one is my anaysis of HDFC Bank results - 1 level below the surface the results seem to be really bad. Watch the Video for details. Warning: If you don't want to sell the stock then either don't watch or stop watching when the conclusion commences. 😎 Part 1 of the Video has gone viral by standards of a startup channel with 6000 views in less then 2 days! You can watch it here for my pre-result analsis with 6 threats and 6 opportunities [most of them played out in the results] Heartfelt gratitude for the appreciations, and the near 5 min AVD which is smashing for any video: https://lnkd.in/gztViBmc This Video: https://lnkd.in/g-8JjdJ7 #hdfc #HDFCBank #IndianEquityMarket #Investing #Finance #MarketAnalysis #DigitalTransformation #esginvesting #FinancialInclusion #TechnologyInnovation #MarketVolatility #EconomicTrends #Inesting #Trading #india

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This article has some good data on the #wealthtech opportunity in #India. One stat in particular jumped out: " India’s ratio of mutual fund AUM-to-GDP is at 15% versus a global average of 75%, according to Macquarie" There will be lots of #AUM growth in this decade. Startups like Dezerv, Scripbox, Centricity etc have made the intial plays - the newer ones will have to come up with some distinct angle or #insight. Drop me a line if you are #building in this space. https://lnkd.in/gxJupaCb

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