Abhishek Ahuja

Fiscal deficit for H1FY25 at Rs 4.75 lakh crore, 29.4 percent of the full-year target Experts indicate that the government may end up achieving a lower fiscal deficit ratio than the 4.9 percent target set in the Union Budget 2024-25, partially helped by a higher-than-expected RBI dividend of Rs 2.1 lakh crore. https://lnkd.in/dNrJQstN

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Gm, A landslide victory by the NDA in Maharashtra would be a good tonic that the market wants at the current level. This is a thumbs-up 👍 from the people of Maharashtra for progressive development. This will enable the government to accelerate the fast-track process for all infrastructure-related development across all major states. This, plus the revival in rural India, would help the economy bounce back 📈 in the second half. We have seen the market reacting adversely 📉 in the last two months due to weaker second-quarter earnings and also on account of heavy FII selling. To some extent, the correction in the market is also healthy as it removes froth 🧼 to some extent. Going forward, we believe the intensity of FII selling should reduce, and we should see an economic revival as well. Notwithstanding geopolitical tensions, the Indian economy would remain resilient. A bottom-up stock selection approach would be the mantra.

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I’ve been turning down all media requests for a post election analysis but talk of whether alliances will hold post elections reminded me of something I wrote 26 years ago - before a Lok Sabha Election result.   The basic premise: one who holds 30 seats may have the same power, or even more, as compared to someone who holds 245 seats.   A mathematical Power Index explains how   Quote Let’s get on with the “Power Indices” of the various political parties.   Think of it this way : suppose you require a 50% plus majority to form a government and there are 3 parties in the parliament with the following seat tally : 44%, 39% and 17%.   Now, any two of these can join together to form the government and therefore all three of them have exactly equal power, no matter that Party 3 has got less than half the number of seats that the first two have. This is a concept that is of use in any ‘majority wins’ decision rule from shareholder resolutions to jury decisions.   Suppose there are 4 parties in the fray this time around: A, B, C and D parties, having 35%, 34%, 17% and 14% of the seats resp. Again if a simple majority is needed to form a government, any two out of A, B & C can form a government whereas the Party D’s support is never really crucial to anyone.   If this party’s 14% is added onto the percentages of any of the first three parties, the sum does not exceed 50% and any larger coalition of parties doesn’t require its support anyway. Party D is therefore called a ‘dummy’ - an apt term for someone whose vote can never change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   The dummy has no power, while all the other three parties i.e. A, B and C have equal power.   This is inspite of the fact that Party C has far fewer seats than A and B and only a few more than the smallest one i.e. Party D   For those interested, there is a technical concept called the Banzhaf Power Index (BPI) of a group, party or person which is defined as the number of ways in which that group, party or person can change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   In the preceding example, the BPI of parties A, B and C are equal and that of Party D is zero.    In fact as an individual MP, you are better-off being a part of Party C than Party A or B because as part of the government you get a disproportionate share of the goodies. This is exactly what happened in U.P. where virtually every MLA of a marginal party who joined the BJP government was made a minister - something that was a remote dream for most BJP MLAs.   Unquote (First Global's weekly 'Markets, Majorities and Maths', January 1998)   Thus if a few smaller partners can hold whichever coalition government to ransom, it introduces uncertainty.   “The more things change, the more they stay the same” Hence, I can repeat a 1998 piece which has contemporary parallels   We may be in for some interesting times.   History also shows coalition governments have been pretty good for the economy and markets.

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Was nice to share some thoughts with Akshata Gorde and Financial Express (India) on SEBIs new proposed fixed price mechanism as an alternative to reverse book building for voluntary delisting schemes. Read on to know more: https://lnkd.in/g25YCj_D #SEBI #delisting #law

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Today's Headlines from : *Economic Times* 📝 3,638 FDI proposals cleared in sensitive sectors since 2019 📝 NARCL ups offer for Jaiprakash Associates debt to Rs 12,000 crore 📝 Festivals take e-toll collections to a record ₹6,000 crore in October 📝 Railways switches to fast track for Kavach rollout 📝 India tops global diabetes list with 212 million cases in 2022: Lancet Study 📝 Nokia to roll out 3,300 new 4G sites by March for Vi expansion 📝 Morgan Stanley, 2 others pick 6.8 pc stake in PNB Housing Fin for Rs 1,664 crore 📝 Nalco Q2 Results: Profit rises multi-fold to Rs 1,046 crore; Rs 4 per share dividend announced 📝 NBCC Q2 Results: Profit jumps 53% to Rs 125.13 crore 📝 Kalpataru Projects International bags orders worth Rs 2,273 crore 📝 Ecommerce AI startup BiteSpeed raised USD 3.5 million 📝 SaaS startup Zeplyn raises $3 million from Leo Capital, others 📝 Space startup Firefly valued at over $2 billion in latest funding round *Business Standard* 📝 Brigade Enterprises Q2FY25 results: Reports 46% increase in sales value 📝 Marriott International, Samhi Hotels ink pact to open 3 properties in India 📝 India's Adani Group to invest $10 billion in US energy following Trump win 📝 Dilip Buildcon Q2 results: Net profit rises threefold to Rs 235 crore 📝 ONGC to soon open 5 wells in KG basin to boost gas, crude output in H2FY25 📝 NCLAT directs IL&FS to complete resolution of remaining firms by March 31 📝 ICAI to knock on MCA door against proposed audit standard revision 📝 India's outward FDI rises to $3.7 billion in October 2024: RBI data 📝 Mkt regulator Sebi mulls action for lapses in Artificial intelligence usage 📝 Festive season stabilises PV sales, 2Ws jump 14%; over 393K vehicles sold *Financial Express* 📝 Economists revise FY25 CPI inflation estimates to 4.7-5 per cent 📝 IN-SPACe taps DoT to cut spectrum price for Spacetech startups 📝 Eicher Motors Q2 profit rises 8 per cent to Rs 1,100 crore 📝 Power ministry readies interest subvention scheme for MSMEs 📝 Karnataka to organise venture capital connect with $17 billion investment potential 📝 IPO-bound NTPC Green plans to invest Rs 1 lakh crore by FY27 📝 Indebtedness of states expected to remain rangebound at 31-32% this fiscal, says CRISIL *Mint* 📝 US October inflation rises 2.6% YoY in first annual acceleration since March 📝 UN to come up with solutions to support countries cope with extreme heat 📝 BII, Norfund, IndiGrid form $300 million business for battery storage 📝 AstraZeneca Q2 net profit declines 10%, revenue up 31% 📝 Torrent Power Q2 Results: Net profit falls 8.6% YoY to ₹496 crore 📝 RBI retains SBI, HDFC, ICICI as India's too-big-to-fail banks 📝 Prosus offers to invest $100 million in Mintifi Finserve at unicorn valuation

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Case Study: Portfolio (mis)management by a reputed wealth management firm We onboarded a client with a portfolio of around INR 50 Crores, earlier managed by a big & reputed wealth management company. The portfolio was constructed for retirement purposes with 12 years of investment horizon. The risk profile of the client is moderate. When we did the portfolio health check-up, we found that there were close to 50 products in the portfolio. 40% allocation in AIFs and 20% average in debt. The annualized returns were around 10% over the last 5 years. All investments were in commission-based regular plans generating a commission of at least INR 50 LAKHS ANNUALLY for the wealth management company & client had NO idea of the hefty commissions going out every year. What's wrong with this portfolio? - Over-diversification: An ideal portfolio shouldn't have more than 15 products (max. 20 depending upon certain cases). When you invest in mutual funds, PMSs, or AIFs, the fund managers will spread the investments across multiple securities. A concentrated portfolio with high-conviction products brings better results. This is a simple understanding then why so many products? Usually, a new product offers a higher commission to distributors. This becomes a strong incentive to keep introducing new products to the portfolio. - Low returns: The underperformance was due to poor-performing equity investments across portfolio. Why these schemes were not changed could be due to the lack of focus of the relationship manager on the portfolio or higher trail commission. - Low liquidity: Excessive exposure to AIFs and some locked-in debt products offered no liquidity to swiftly change allocation in the portfolio if any opportunity arises. - Unsuitable portfolio construction: Despite a moderate risk profile, the portfolio consisted of high-risk AIFs and only around 20% in debt. This is certainly not aligned with the client’s interests. Again, reason could be that AIFs pay higher commissions than PMSs which pay higher commissions than MFs. Our solution: - Asset allocation alignment: Created a broader level asset allocation strategy across equity, debt, and gold to align with the risk profile and investment objective of the client. -Shift to zero-commission Direct Plans: Created a plan to shift all the investments gradually to direct plans of MFs, PMS, and AIFs. This will save the client upwards of INR 50 lakhs in commission payout and will be added to the portfolio gains. For our services, the client pays fees directly to us which is less than 25% of the commissions saved. - Minimize shifting costs: We removed all the underperforming funds by minimizing tax and exit load impact. - Focused portfolio: Reduced the number of products to 14 after thorough research.  The exercise took some time to complete but it was worth the effort to see a satisfied client who knows his retirement portfolio is in reliable hands. #casestudy #wealthmanagement #truemindcapital

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Bull market is in a full swing in India. After one day of election outcome related sharp correction, market has surprised everyone with one way up move. Sensex @ 80000 and with strong past returns, return expectations are also on the rise. Market has not left any theme/sector untouched as each sector has seen some upmove on some narrative or the other. India has a long way to go and I remain long term optimist but valuations are through the roof is a reality in near term. Conventional valuations parameters like PE ratio or marketcap to GDP are widely tracked but some of the other variables which help in tracking market froth are also flashing amber now. For eg Sensex Mcap to Indian's overall Mcap ratio is at all time low. Another indicator which I call implied return of the market which is the gap between sell side consensus target price and current market price of 500 major stocks tracked by Indian sell side is showing "0%" average 12 month implied return (SMID cap average implied return fell into negative category!). May be analysts and strategists will raise TPs after the run up in prices (nothing unusual in that) but the fact is that this bull market remain relentless. To demonstrate current market situation in the form of a song, I have adapted an old famous song from the movie "Dil hain ke maanta nahi" As usual just for fun purpose.. Here it's is... Bull hai ke manta nahin Bull hai ke manta nahin Mushkil badi hai rasme security analysis Yeh value concept jaanta hi nahin Oh, bull hai ke manta nahin Bull hai ke manta nahin Traders ko beqaraari kyoon ho rahi hai Yeh jaanta hi nahin Ho bull hai ke manta nahin Fair value concept yeh manta nahin Bull to yeh chaahe har pal market mein hum Bas new highs dekha kare Price aur value ek dusre se judaa ho Aao kuch aisa kare Fads mein sama jaa, aa paas aa jaa First time investor mere, hamnasheen Bull hai ke manta nahin Price value gap jaise cheez yeh manta nahin *Now, 20 year old market wizard (pun intended)* Hum to trading karte hai jamke Humko hai sab breakouts ki khabar Tanha hamara mushkil hota jeena Tum jo na milte weekends par Betaab saanse.. bechain aankhe Kahne lagi nine fifteen (9.15 am) Bull hain ke manta nahi Market can be cyclical yeh pehchanta nahi *Market to new age investors* Teri vafaaye teri mohabbat Bahut kuch hai mere liye Tune diya hai FD wala funds mujhko Returns to hai tere liye Par yeh baat sach hai market cyclical hain Tumko nahi yeh yakeen, kyunki Bull hai ke manta nahin Historical valuations yeh manta nahin Mushkil badi hai rasme investing Yeh jaanta hi nahin Ho bull hai ke manta nahin PEG ratio ke alawa kuch pehchanta nahi 🙏

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Interesting to see that 2 external members of MPC are gunning for a rate cut. RBI members are more cautious before embarking on rate easing prematurely. ECB has cut rates and increased inflationary outlook in a bid to reduce real rates and prop up growth impulses. In India growth is expected to go up, and hence there is no urgency to reduce nominal or real rates. It appears that RBI will wait for inflation to sustainably come close to 4% before easing monetary policy. Bond yields will trade in a range of 6.90% to 7.10% for some time to come. Investors could lock into the current corporate bond yields at 7.50%-8% band as they are offering spreads of 250-300 bps higher than expected inflation 4.5%, which is more than adequate from a historical perspective. We expect FPI flows to increase into Government bonds going forward

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RBI Dividend - A Bonanza RBI announced record dividend of INR 2.11lac crs vs Budgeted estimate of 1.02lac crs, a record high and 140% above previous year dividend. Additionally, it also increased contingency risk buffer from 5.5% to 6.5%. Possible reasons for higher pay out: Higher revaluation of gold and profit booking Gains from security sales Possible Outcomes: Govt may have aggressive capex plans There could be reduction in govt borrowings (possible fiscal impact 0.2-03%) *views are personal #rbi #dividend #economy #fixedincome #investing #bondmarkets

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https://lnkd.in/gbsWykcF Indian family offices told me that Reliance Retail IPO will be a "super huge success" creating exceptional value for shareholders ! ( they also told that many billionaires are expected to queue outside Antilia for appointment with Isha Ambani !  I completely support their views and add my prediction that "2027 " will be Platinum,  Diamond year for Reliance Retail It's valuation can DEFINITELY jump by 60% to 80% in 2027( January, June and July will be Best months in 2027)  PS: If for any reason IPO is not done in 2025, then ,2027 should be the "blockbuster year" to plan it !  Qatar Investment Authority Zulfiquar Ghadiyali #relianceindustries  #swfs #institutionalinvestors  #familyoffices  #investors  #IndiasGrowth  #pmoindia  #pmoffice  #pefunds  #stocks  #IPO  #stockstowatch  #billionaires 

It was fun chatting with Pankil Thakkar of Kalpfin Wealth last week in Ahmedabad. We touched upon various topical issues pertaining to the current state of the market. We also discussed in detail about the ongoing NFO of Union Active Momentum Fund. I explained the key features and benefits of this interesting offering. Hope you too enjoy this chat. #Markets #stocks #equities #mutualfunds #wealth #wealthmanagement #UnionMF https://lnkd.in/dbSUdBbG

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Today's Headlines from : *Economic Times* 📝 Jio, Airtel, Vi record customer loss post tariff hike, BSNL becomes only gainer in July 📝 Adani Total Gas secures USD 375 mn funding to expand city gas network 📝 HDFC Bank approves IPO of HDB Financial Services with fresh equity sale of Rs 2,500 crore 📝 India’s forex reserves hit a fresh high of $689.46 billion 📝 India proposes retaliatory duties worth $1.1 bn against EU’s steel curbs 📝 Retail inflation for farm workers eased to 5.96% in Aug; 6.08% for rural labourers 📝 NHAI awards 251-km Hyderabad-Nagpur corridor for Rs 6,661 cr under TOT model 📝 ISRO, IN-SPACe & NSIL sign five tech transfer pact with non-governmental entities 📝 Over Rs 3 lakh cr needed each year to achieve 440 GW RE capacity by 2030: Icra 📝 Copeland to invest Rs 500 crore to expand India manufacturing facility and R&D 📝 Air India domestic market share rises to 27%, International to 24% 📝 Fleet operator Everest Fleet raises $30 million from Uber India 📝 Hospitality startup Elivaas raises $5 million from 3one4 Capital, others 📝 PhysicsWallah closes $210 million funding round led by Hornbill Capital valuing it at $2.8 billion *Business Standard* 📝 CARE Ratings downgrades IIFL Finance's long-term instruments to "AA-" 📝 Internship Scheme: Govt to list out 500 companies based on CSR spend 📝 Moglix to invest $50 million in Credlix for expansion in USA, Mexico 📝 NBFC Aye Finance raises $30 million in series G round led by ABC Impact 📝 DPIIT refers complaint against quick e-commerce players to CCI: Report 📝 EQT to acquire 100% stake in Indostar Home Finance for Rs 1,750 crore 📝 Mankind Pharma to raise funds up to Rs 10k crore via debt instruments 📝 Adani Ports sign MoU with Rorix Holdings for trade, logistics purposes 📝 Capital A launches Rs 400 cr fund to target manufacturing, climate startups 📝 Reliance Infrastructure gets Rs 1,100 crore infusion from promoters 📝 FM reviews housing and urban affairs ministry capex with focus on PMAY 📝 Finance ministry notifies direct tax Vivad Se Vishwas Scheme, 2024 📝 NRI deposits witness $5.82 billion inflows in April-July 24, shows RBI data 📝 Rupee posts biggest weekly gain in 2024; appreciates 9 paise to 83.56 *Financial Express* 📝 TCS expands operations in Poland, opens new delivery centre in Warsaw 📝 RWE, AM Green Ammonia inks pact to supply 250,000 tonnes green ammonia annually 📝 Religare Enterprises becomes debt-free entity, clears Rs 163.75 crore loan 📝 Zomato receives another GST demand, penalty order of Rs 17.7 crore from West Bengal 📝 I-GST panel finalises plan to address “negative balance” issue 📝 Crude import bill up 15% on year in Apr-Aug *Mint* 📝 Manba Finance IPO: NBFC mobilises ₹45 crore from anchor investors 📝 SEBI permits mutual funds to buy, sell credit default swaps 📝 Govt pushes for indigenous technologies in animal husbandry, dairy sectors

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Today's Headlines from : *Economic Times* 📝 India red-flags non-tariff barriers, wants EU focus on market access 📝 Finance Ministry suggests PSU banks to update transfer policy 📝 CREDAI urges government for change in definition of affordable housing 📝 FIIs reverse selling trend with purchase of domestic equities worth Rs 11,100 crore in two sessions 📝 Enviro Infra IPO subscribed 89.90 times on final day of bidding 📝 Vedanta Resources raises USD 800 mn from global investors via new bond issue 📝 RBI injects ₹6,956 crore as liquidity turns to deficit 📝 IOC keeps Iraq oil import agreement steady, eyes more Russian crude 📝 Zydus eyes M&A, licensing to build its US specialty business 📝 India's luxury housing market soars, H1 FY25 total sales Rs 279,309 cr, up 18% 📝 APM Terminals Pipavav signs 25-yr pact with CleanMax to source power 📝 Spacetech startup TakeMe2Space to launch AI lab in space in December 📝 Healthkart swings to profit in FY24, revenue tops Rs 1,000 crore *Business Standard* 📝 IT major TCS turns to home turf as it looks to redraw revenue map 📝 NCLAT dismisses petition seeking insolvency against Amazon Wholesale 📝 Govt working on integrated platform to speed up resolution processes 📝 Ola Electric rides into gig segment; set to launch sub-Rs 40K e-scooter 📝 Moody's and Fitch take rating action against Adani group companies 📝 Siemens Sep quarter net profit jumps 45% to Rs 831 crore on higher income 📝 Cars24's revenue from operations rises 25% to Rs 6,917 crore in FY24 📝 Nippon Life India acquires commercial spaces worth Rs 486 crore in Mumbai 📝 India shipped record 4.5 million personal computers in Q3CY24: IDC 📝 Protectionism, tariffs among major challenges: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das 📝 Banks eye Rs 1 trillion through infrastructure bond issuances in FY25 📝 Indian banks write off Rs 1.7 trillion in loans in FY24, shows govt data 📝 Govt plans insurance law changes for unified licence, hiking FDI limit 📝 TakeMe2Space set to launch India's first AI laboratory in space 📝 India's 5G users to touch 970 mn by 2030: Ericsson Mobility report *Financial Express* 📝 Panel set up by SC moots direct income support to farmers 📝 ShareChat’s revenue grows 33 per cent in FY24 to Rs 718 crore 📝 Competition commission approves Alphabet’s stake acquisition in Walmart-owned Flipkart 📝 Mediation for operational creditors to cut NCLT burden: MCA 📝 Rupee slips 3 paise as dollar firms up on Trump’s tariff plans *Mint* 📝 Sri Lanka Streamlines Monetary Policy to Single Benchmark Rate 📝 Vedanta eyes $2 billion copper project investments in Saudi Arabia 📝 Govt approves ₹1,116 crore for disaster mitigation, capacity building projects 📝 CCI approves Kotak Bank’s proposal to buy Standard Chartered's ₹4.1k loan book 📝 States borrow ₹30,790 crore in the Nov auction; FY25 borrowings stand at 2.1 tn 📝 U.S. airlines collected more than $12 billion from seat fees

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BSE listed companies' market cap hits $5 trillion for first time On a year-to-date basis, Sensex has given returns of only 2.33 per cent, but BSE midcap and BSE smallcap indices have given returns of 16.62 and 11 per cent, respectively. Read full story here https://bit.ly/4bNm4pT

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A significant milestone on the Sarvagram journey and we are very excited to continue our support to the stellar team. When we invested in 2022, we saw a distinctive company which was serving an unaddressed segment in a very large market i.e middle class households in rural India. The narrative around rural financing has primarily focused on farmers and low-income populations. However, there's a huge gap in addressing the needs of the aspirational rural middle class—the 80-100 million households with annual incomes ranging from ₹3-5L, spread across multiple income sources. This demographic is eager to improve both their income levels and quality of life, yet their financial needs have often gone unmet. Banks and microfinance institutions have targeted agriculture or low-income women but the rural middle class is a large whitespace. Though they may have access to product financing like two-wheeler or car loans, a significant portion of their aspirations remains unaddressed. SarvaGram is stepping into this gap with a holistic, customer-centric platform that offers a diverse range of financial services—from lending products and farm mechanization solutions to insurance offerings — as opposed to a mono-line strategy, which we believe works better in denser urban markets. In addition to our thesis on rural lending, we have found working with the stellar team, led by Utpal Isser and Sameer Mishra, a collaborative and insightful partnership. Their exceptional execution and understanding of the rural market have enabled SarvaGram to create lasting impact and drive sustainable growth. It has been equally enjoyable to learn from their experiences and we truly appreciate the openness of team. We have also appreciated working with our co-passengers from #Elevar, #Elevation and #Temasek and look forward to the #Peak XV team. With this fundraise, SarvaGram is on track to continue its impressive growth trajectory and we are excited to be part of this journey of SarvaGram driving meaningful change for rural middle-class households. Utpal Isser SarvaGram Sreeraman V TVS Capital Funds #FundingSuccess #RuralIndia

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#Hotel #ARR on #OTA indicate Octover-December ARR for both business and leisure location are on strong footing but Mumbai (business) and Goa (leisure) are exceptions*                                                                                                   #IHCL- #Taj portfolio growth is being driven by 14% increase in ARR in #business locations, while #leisure locations are seeing an increase of only 6%. #Ginger portfolio is seeing oscillating trends in both leisure and business locations.   #Chalet Hotels- On YoY basis, average December rates as well as average QTD rates of Chalet Hotels in business segment continue to rise. #Bengaluru Marriott Hotel in Whitefield has seen ~50% rise in rates.   #Lemon Tree Hotels- Average December rates for #LemonTreeHotels are seeing an upsurge, while average QTD rates are showing mixed trends. The #LemonTree Premier portfolio is clocking ~100% average ARR growth in Hyderabad and Mumbai in the month of December.   #Marriott - On YoY basis, average December rates as well as average QTD rates of Marriott hotels are in a mixed trajectory. #JWMarriott portfolio is seeing an average decline in rates with the exception of #JWMarriottSahar which is seeing 24% growth in rates. #CourtyardbyMarriott is seeing an average 15-30% rise in rates while #Marriott hotels are seeing 30%+ growth in rates. #Business- On YoY basis, average December rates as well as average QTD rates in #Pune, #Hyderabad and #Bengaluru continue to rise while #Mumbai is seeing a mixed trajectory. In #Delhi, #luxury hotels are commanding good ARR growth, while #midscale-upscale hotels are struggling. #Leisure - On YoY basis, average December rates as well as average QTD rates in major leisure locations are seeing an uptick with an exception of rates in #Goa seeing a mixed trajectory. DISCLAIMER: COMMENTS ON RATES ARE BASED ON ARR THAT WE TRACK ON OTAs. #HotelierIndia

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