StoreHero

How do you forecast demand when your brand is just getting started? Here’s how we helped one client navigate uncertainty and win big. 👇 Last Black Friday, we worked with a client facing big questions. They wanted to stock up on inventory but didn’t have enough historical data to confidently predict demand. Using our built-out 3-statement financial model, we ran multiple scenarios: • What if sales hit 50% of the forecast? • 40%? • 30%?    The analysis revealed that even at half the forecasted sales, they could survive—with the right debt facility in place. We worked with them and a lender to secure financing for the inventory, ensuring they could weather a worst-case scenario. While sales fell short of their goal, the plan worked. They avoided a cash crunch and have spent the past year profitably liquidating inventory. This year, they went into Black Friday in a stronger position, ready to keep growing. Here’s how we help clients nail demand forecasting: 💡 Layered forecasting:It’s not as simple as ad spend x blended ROAS = revenue. We dig into CAC, LTV, repeat purchase rates, and cohort behavior to build a comprehensive demand model. 💡 Scenario planning:For early-stage brands with limited data, we run “what if” scenarios. Best case, worst case, and everything in between. This helps founders prepare for uncertainty. 💡 Risk-adjusted bets: Using a 3-statement financial model, we evaluate the impact of different scenarios on your P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow. Then, we set up strategies to mitigate risks. Demand forecasting isn’t about guessing—it’s about preparation. Need help planning your next big season? Let’s talk. -- Hi, I'm Jon Blair founder of the DTC Finance and Accounting firm Free to Grow CFO. Want more tips on growing a profit-focused DTC brand? Give me a follow. Want to learn more about how Free to Grow's Accountants and CFO's can help you increase profit and cash flow as you scale? Shoot me a DM. Until next time, scale on! 

It’s been two weeks since the BFCM madness, and we still can’t get over it! We dedicated an entire episode of our StoreHero Podcast to break down the results Shopify shared, and there’s a looooooot 🔸 Shopify hit $11.5 billion in global sales, a 24% jump from 2023. 🔸 Expectations weren’t sky-high going in, but Shopify once again overdelivered and continues to solidify its spot as a key player in e-commerce. 🔸 Top categories? The usual suspects—clothing, cosmetics, fitness, and activewear. 🔸 Average order values (AOV) didn’t skyrocket because of more spending but likely due to inflation and adjustments like free shipping thresholds. If you haven’t tuned in yet, you can check it out here: 📺 YouTube https://lnkd.in/eD9bDfDu 🎧 Spotify https://lnkd.in/ek7xa3j8 ♻️ Repost if you found this helpful!

The year is almost over, and the holidays are calling. 🎄 But before you fully switch off, here’s something to make starting 2025 a whole lot easier: The FREE StoreHero Forecasting Template. This template is built for Shopify store owners to plan ahead without the hassle. Use it to: ✅ Map out your 2025 strategies with a profit-first mindset ✅ Forecast sales and profitability for the next 12 months ✅ Keep things clear and stress-free as you step into the new year 👉 Download it here https://lnkd.in/enJfYP7X

Great news for a Friday! 🎉

Irish eComm Brands! ☘️ What better way to wrap up the year than with a few drinks after the madness! Join us on Dec 19th for an exclusive eCommerce Christmas Drinks night in Dublin – a chance to celebrate and connect with fellow DTC brands. Organised by Leading Social and StoreHero . 🍸 Great venue + open bar + limited spots! Want in? Drop me a DM! 📩

The wait is over – TikTok shop is finally in Ireland! 🇮🇪

We have a new release at StoreHero just in time to analyze your BFCM data!!! Now you can gain clearer view of Gross Profit and Contribution Margin in every market you sell! 🌍📊 For DTC brands scaling globally, this is a game-changer. Each country has its own story, and without the right data, it’s tough to make profit-first decisions. With this new feature, you’ll see exactly which markets are thriving, where to optimize, and how to allocate resources for maximum impact. Let’s make sure your 2025 plan is built on clear, actionable insights. Try it here https://storehero.ai/demo/

🚨 Black Friday & Cyber Monday 2024 Results: What DTC Brands can learn for 2025 🚨 Hey folks, just dropped a new StoreHero episode where I take a deep dive into the results of Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2024 and what it means for DTC brands looking to scale in 2025. Here’s what is covered in this episode: ✔️ The record-breaking Shopify sales and key trends that shaped this year’s BFCM. Spoiler: $11.5 billion in global sales! ✔️ Consumer behavior changes and how you can use them to your advantage. ✔️ Why focusing on profitability—not just discounts—is the name of the game going into 2025. ✔️ How to segment your customers for more effective marketing campaigns. ✔️ Actionable strategies to set your business up for success in the new year. You can watch the full episode here: 🎧 YouTube https://lnkd.in/epfvz6ND 📺 Spotify https://lnkd.in/eBYigBE7 🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe and follow our podcast for more insights and strategies to grow your DTC business!

BFCM is over. Now what? The post-BFCM season can feel like a bit of a hangover—sales slow down, ad fatigue kicks in, and the festive buzz fizzles out. But before you charge into the new year, take a moment. There’s a goldmine of insights waiting in your data. Some tips from Eddie Cheng Co-Owner from VIBAe on our last BFCM webinar: 1️⃣ Segment your customers 2️⃣ Spot the patterns 3️⃣ Reapply what worked 4️⃣ Think long-term The brands that win post-BFCM don’t just move on—they analyze, strategize, and optimize. How are you using your BFCM data to set up for success in 2024?