Alejandro Reyes (芮安卓)

More continuity than change? Taiwan’s President-elect Lai Ching-te will reshuffle but retain cabinet heavyweights in key defence, trade, foreign affairs and security positions. Wellington Koo, Joseph Wu, John Deng, Tsai Ming-yen etc will remain in cabinet. Referring to incumbent national security council chief Wellington Koo and foreign minister Joseph Wu, Ivan Kanapathy told Nikkei Asia: “These two top ministers have anchored a strong yet unprovocative defense of Taiwanese sovereignty under President Tsai.” “In terms of foreign affairs, Lai’s top priority will be to prepare for the outcome of the U.S. presidential race and uncertainty arising from a Donald Trump victory, which may also intensify the already-tense U.S.-China relations,” Bo-jiun Jing commented. https://lnkd.in/dEJm-ttb

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SE Asia Prepares Differently for Trump and Harris Governments and businesses across SE Asia prepare very differently for the alternate outcomes of the US presidential election. While a Harris Administration will maintain a more regional approach to the countries of ASEAN, such as through IPEF, a Trump 2.0 return an America First, bilateral approach to the region. Trump views the size of the bilateral trade deficit on how to approach trade, as Deborah Elms points out in her latest analysis. Countries with large merchandise trade deficits with the US were assumed to be using inappropriate trade practices. This will cause concern for markets such as Malaysia and Vietnam who will face a different set of challenges under Trump than they do under Biden. Great to be invited by the US-ASEAN Business Council Ted Osius, Ambassador (ret.) Brian McFeeters for a closed door session with the USABC team on the US election, what's happening and why, and what may come next. IBP Angga A. Nugraheni Widia Utami Tina Jamaluddin Florina Vistal Mario Masaya Celine Kusnadi Sarah L.

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🌟 Exploring the transformative leadership of Nguyen Phu Trong in reshaping Vietnam's political landscape through anti-corruption measures, regulatory reforms, strategic realignments, and personal-professional dynamics. A nuanced approach that blends centralized control with regional diversity. 🇻🇳 #NguyenPhuTrong #Vietnam #PoliticalTransformation #Leadership #AntiCorruption https://lnkd.in/ebNNgTzA

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“Impact of Next U.S. President on Vietnam,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 21, 2024. This Background Brief considers four questions: (1) will a Kamala Harris Administration continue President Biden’s foreign policies in general and Vietnam in particular (2) if Trump is re-elected president will his approach towards Southeast Asia be “either with us or against us” in relations with China? (3) which candidate will stress human right in relations with Vietnam? (4) would President Trump sell weapons to Vietnam if he is re-elected? https://lnkd.in/gc7nYYWk. #Vietnam, #United_States, #Kamala_Harris, #Donald_Trump, #Joe_Biden, #foreign_policy, #domestic_issues, #ceasefire_in_Gaza, #Indo_Pacific, #National_Security_Strategy, #National_Defense_Strategy, #Indo_Pacific_Strategy, #security_partner, #Southeast_Asia, #China, #tariffs, #US_alliances, #Japan, #South_Korea, #Australia, #Singapore, #ASEAN_centrality, #regional_security, #trade_surplus, #trade_balance, #transactional, #punitive_measures, #discriminatory_treatment, #first_Trump_Administration, #Nguyen_Xuan_Phuc, #non_market_economy, #human_rights, #Uighur_people, #political_tool, #arms_deal, #Coast_Guard_Hamilton_class_cutters, #sanctions, #arms_trade, #Russia, #annexation_of_Crimea

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Chester Cabalza, founder and president of the International Development and Security Cooperation (IDSC) think tank in Manila, told This Week in Asia that the Philippines’s idea for wider maritime participation was “astute”. Such partnerships would reinforce “Manila’s credible leadership and moral ascendancy on maritime rules-based norms by not stooping to China’s mischievous grey zone tactics”, Cabalza said. “Manila’s ahead of the curve, drawing a flock of maritime powers to sail with its coastguard and navy. It would mean the Philippines has growing followers of its advocacy to assert its sovereignty.” The proposal comes as public support grows stronger in the Philippines for the government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr to respond more robustly against Beijing over the South China Sea dispute, including forming partnerships with Manila’s allies. About 71 per cent of Filipinos want such an alliance to defend the country’s territorial and economic rights in the West Philippine Sea – Manila’s name for the part of the South China Sea that includes its exclusive economic zone – according to a survey by Social Weather Stations released on Friday. https://lnkd.in/gHpdeKAr

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5/20/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3ypfkAa 1. N. Korea slams U.S. subcritical nuclear test, vows measures to bolster nuclear deterrence 2. Should South Korea ‘scare Kim’ with US nuclear bombs? ‘China and Russia would raise hell’ 3. Unification minister criticizes ex-liberal President Moon's memoir 4. FM Cho: S. Korea, Japan should manage relations so as 'not to disrupt' mood in improving ties 5. N. Korea changes name of key party organ in charge of inter-Korean affairs 6. S. Korea to set up monuments in hopes of repatriation of 5 abductees 7. S. Korea to designate July 14 as day for N. Korean defectors 8. N. Korea showcases fireworks modeled after Hwaseong-17 ICBM 9. N. Korean leader mourns military official known for close ties with him on 2nd annv. of death 10. Editorial: Former President Moon Jae-in trusts Kim Jong-un over objective evidence 11. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Blindsided by information blockade...Unprecedented surveillance as defectors' families considered chief drivers of flow of outside information 12. Moon memoir stirs the pot with accounts of North's Kim, Trump, Abe 13. A glimpse into the future of surveillance technology in North Korea 14. Xi-Putin summit and NK

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"Taiwan Political Update - November 14, 2024 Regarding the opposition party's proposal on the Fiscal Distribution Act, President William Lai has issued a response that, while firm in tone, deliberately maintains clear room for negotiation. President Lai outlined several key points: 1. The central government's actual disposable budget amounts to approximately NT$770 billion. A further deduction of NT$660 billion would potentially leave insufficient resources for critical functions such as national defense, diplomatic affairs, major infrastructure projects, and emergency disaster response. 2. He emphasized that historically, the central government has managed expenditures for certain institutions, including senior high schools and regional hospitals. With any fiscal redistribution, local governments must assume the corresponding financial responsibilities for these operations. 3. Lai highlighted that central government subsidies to local governments have shown consistent growth over the past eight years, with allocations reaching an unprecedented NT$1.0151 trillion for the coming year. He noted that local governments have experienced substantial improvements in their financial positions. Analysis suggests that the ruling party appears prepared to accept the bill's passage, while implementing adjustments in the following critical areas: 1. The maintenance of existing central government operations will necessitate a reduction in current subsidy levels. 2. Local governments will be required to assume financial responsibility for specific operations, particularly in the healthcare and education sectors, including hospitals and certain senior high schools. In conclusion, regardless of the bill's final provisions, the fundamental political science principle of unified authority and responsibility remains paramount - the delegation of power must be accompanied by corresponding responsibilities. While the ruling party appears to have made necessary preparations, the opposition party should proceed with careful consideration in negotiating the future fiscal framework."

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Hong Kong gets a special place in the Third Plenum, it seems? China published its Third Plenum reform blueprint today, titled "Resolution on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization". (中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革　推进中国式现代化的决定) It contains a curious passage: "Establish a unified national population management system". (探索建立全国统一的人口管理制度) Is Beijing planning to extend its population management system to cover Hong Kong & Macau? - i.e. more One Country, less Two Systems? That passage looks more anodyne In the Resolution itself. Because it falls under the heading "(52) Improving the social governance system", and it's flanked by innocuous-sounding phrases such as "improve social governance institutions of shared building, governing, and sharing". (完善共建共治共享的社会治理制度) But that's not the only place where the phrase made a appearance. That phrase is also found in another concurrent Xinhua story published just 4 minutes after the Resolution. In that explainer titled "Xi Jinping's explanation re the DECISION", that line about "establish a unified national population management system" falls in the "better coordinate between development & security" section (注重统筹发展和安全). That line is also flanked by much more public security portfolio heavy calls to "create AI security surveillance system" and "better overall prevention and control system for social order". So seems like that phrase "establish a unified national population management system" is not (just?) about demography. It's about security.

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G7 leaders on Hong Kong: We are also worried by China’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s autonomy, independent institutions, and civil society and continued erosion of rights and freedom, including through the recent enactment of legislation under Article 23 of the Basic Law that has broad and vaguely defined provisions regarding “sedition”, “state secrets,” and interactions with foreign entities. We express concerns about the use of such laws to silence dissent in Hong Kong and overseas, including politically motivated prosecutions. These developments will make it harder to live, work and do business in Hong Kong. G7 Apulia Leaders’ Communiqué: https://lnkd.in/gfpMdzS5

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"Taiwan Political Update - November 12, 2024 The most significant legislative proposal impacting Taiwan's political structure recently is the Fiscal Distribution Act. If passed, this legislation would substantially increase local governments' fiscal autonomy, diluting the central government's traditional policy leverage through subsidy allocations by delegating more financial authority to local governments. The bill has naturally sparked intense debate in parliament. The ruling party is currently attempting to delay the committee review process through procedural tactics involving the confirmation of meeting minutes. This strategy is being implemented by the ruling party's committee chairperson. However, next week, the opposition party's chairperson will take charge of committee proceedings. It is projected that the bill will clear the committee stage after November 22, 2024. For foreign investors in Taiwan, this development means engaging with a more complex stakeholder landscape. While local governments will have greater flexibility in tax collection and policy implementation, this change may not necessarily be disadvantageous for foreign businesses - it could potentially create more opportunities for strategic engagement."

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What is needed to make #japan an “asset management nation”: English: https://lnkd.in/gJzT7MfQ Japanese: https://lnkd.in/gub3qU22

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Significant human rights issues included credible reports of: arbitrary arrest and detention; serious problems regarding the independence of the judiciary; political prisoners or detainees; transnational repression against individuals outside of Hong Kong; arbitrary interference with privacy; serious restrictions on freedom of expression and media freedom, including unjustified arrests or prosecutions of journalists and censorship; substantial interference with the freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of association, including overly restrictive laws on the organization, funding, or operation of nongovernmental organizations and civil society organizations; restrictions on freedom of movement and on the right to leave the territory; inability of citizens to change their government peacefully through free and fair elections; serious and unreasonable restrictions on political participation; serious government restrictions on domestic and international human rights organizations; and significant restrictions on workers’ freedom of association, including coercive actions against independent trade unions and arrests of labor activists.

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In the latest article, I and PhD Tam-Sang Huynh examined how Taiwan strived to maintain its 12 diplomatic allies amid China's growing economic influence and complex regional dynamics. From technological incentives to diplomatic engagement, we also explored Taiwan's strategies and the hurdles it faces in preserving these remain relationships.

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Two strong pieces on Japanese politics published in Nikkei Asia today. First up, this long read from our editor-in-chief Shin Nakayama. His main argument is: "Japan is also unique in its electoral system, where both houses are elected through a combination of district and proportional representation. While this system helps capture the broad popular will in both houses, it also transforms elections into a confidence vote for the prime minister. As a result, discussions within the ruling party -- typically the LDP -- often focus more on the prime minister's popularity and electability than on his ability to implement the policy agenda." Also a great main image https://lnkd.in/g83_eC9Y We also have Reuters veteran linda sieg arguing in an op-ed that Japan's centre ground is holding for now, but a low turnout and seat gains by parties on the far left and right mean there is a risk of populism rearing its ugly head at some point in the future. https://lnkd.in/gECthDn7

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