Aston CM (Guernsey) Limited

Sterling-Euro hit a 30-month high midweek but fell over 1% by Friday as markets anticipated slower Bank of England rate cuts compared to the ECB. However, the ECB’s 0.25% rate cut and comments on inflation risks prompted a late-week Euro recovery. UK GDP shrank 0.1% in October, matching September's decline, with weak spending linked to the government’s budget. Poor Friday data across construction, manufacturing, and trade further pressured Sterling ahead of this week’s Bank of England decision. US inflation rose to 2.7% in November, while higher-than-expected producer prices signalled potential inflationary pressures in 2025. The Dollar strengthened as markets scaled back rate cut expectations, with the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement due on Wednesday. You can read more about recent market events in the latest ACM bulletin: https://lnkd.in/dn9SZjzX #Aston #FXnews #MarketUpdate

Last week’s US Non-Farm Payrolls showed a rebound with 227,000 jobs added, though unemployment ticked up to 4.2% and wage growth of 0.4% hinted at inflationary pressure. UK house prices rose 1.2% in November, the strongest gain since March 2022, supported by falling interest rate expectations. Mixed PMI data showed strength in Services and Construction, while Bank of England policymakers hinted at gradual rate cuts next year amid calls for more immediate easing. The Eurozone grappled with instability as French Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned after a short tenure, highlighting political challenges. Retail sales fell 0.5% in November and Spain continued to lead in economic performance. You can read more about recent market events in the latest ACM bulletin: https://lnkd.in/e2KFHukD.

Last week saw a quieter close to November, with the Dollar softening amidst Thanksgiving and lighter trading. Sterling broke a nine-week losing streak against the Dollar, clawing back some of the 7% it had lost since late September.    In the US, Q3 GDP grew by 2.8%, driven by a 3.5% increase in consumer spending. The Federal Reserve signaled the continuation of gradual rate cuts, with Core PCE inflation meeting expectations at 2.8%, and a strong jobs market ahead of Friday's anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls rebound.   In the Eurozone, inflation rose to 2.3% in November, propelled by higher energy costs in countries like Spain and Italy. ECB policymakers are debating the size of December rate cuts amid ongoing economic growth concerns. The Euro held steady against the Dollar but weakened slightly against the Pound.   You can read more about recent market events in the latest ACM bulletin: https://lnkd.in/dHQC7tSr #AstonCM #MarketUpdate #FXnews

UK inflation rose to 2.3% in October, reversing recent progress and likely halting any December rate cuts. Policymakers remain cautious, citing global risks and energy-driven price increases. In the US, safe-haven demand boosted the Dollar as Fed officials debated rate policy. While some see room for gradual cuts, others stress inflation progress remains insufficient. Markets currently estimate a 55% chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting. In Europe, inflation hit 2.0%, matching the ECB’s target, though weak PMI data signalled ongoing economic struggles. The ECB is expected to stick to cautious policymaking as it navigates growth challenges. Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve minutes for policy direction. You can read more about recent market events in the latest ACM bulletin: https://lnkd.in/dHQC7tSr #AstonCM #MarketUpdate #FXnews

Last week, the US Dollar gained on continued market momentum, while UK data showed rising unemployment and wage growth, stirring inflation concerns. Bank of England policymakers signalled high interest rates are likely to stay, which may give GBP some support against the USD in the longer term. In the US, CPI rose modestly, and robust retail sales bolstered the Dollar. Fed Chair Powell’s cautious approach to rate cuts further supported Dollar strength, highlighting the resilient US economy. Meanwhile, ECB minutes revealed a shift toward pre-emptive rate cuts, with flash GDP growth for Q3 at 0.4% but sentiment declining. The ECB is expected to act in December to support economic stability in the Eurozone. You can read more about recent market events in the latest ACM bulletin: https://lnkd.in/dQnHY8JV #Aston #MarketUpdate #FXnews

Confirmation of Donald Trump’s return to the White House last week briefly boosted the Dollar, with GBP/USD reaching 1.2840. Republicans now hold the Senate, though control of Congress remains undecided, which may limit Trump’s policy ambitions. Both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England cut interest rates by 0.25% last week. Fed Chair Powell expressed cautious optimism, even with October’s weak jobs growth. Across the UK, BoE Governor Bailey emphasised a slow approach to keep inflation close to the 2% mandate. This week, markets will focus on US inflation (Wednesday) and UK GDP (Friday). The UK could face pressure if Trump enacts a 20% tariff, potentially shrinking UK exports by 2.6% and GDP by £22bn. Meanwhile, the Euro weakened as the EU braces for possible trade impacts, with President Lagarde set to comment on these risks. You can read more about recent market events in the latest ACM bulletin: https://lnkd.in/dFvPM7Az #AstonCM #MarketUpdate #FXnews

Aston’s Head of Institutional Coverage, Jon Bulloch, will represent Aston CM (Guernsey) Limited at Guernsey Finance’s upcoming business development trip to the Middle East from 10–14 November. This strategic delegation aims to underscore Guernsey’s financial expertise, engaging with high-net-worth advisors, legal and trust professionals, and leading Riyadh-based experts through a series of focused meetings and events. Key events on the agenda include: STEP Arabia Welcome Drinks | 10 November, Dubai STEP Arabia Conference | 11 November, Habtoor Palace, Dubai HNW Advisor Networking Dinner | 12 November, Hyatt Regency Olaya, Riyadh Guernsey Finance Client Roadshow | 12–14 November, Riyadh Jon will be joined by a number of industry peers for what promises to be a great week. Rhona Humphreys Aaron Russell-Davison James Crawford

We’re excited to announce that our Chief Commercial Officer, Jay Goss, will be speaking at the IoD Guernsey Branch Future Leaders Summit next month. Jay’s talk will explore how finding purpose in work has been a constant in his varied career, from selling educational books and serving in the Royal Marines to his role over the last 14 years in building Aston. Whether it was retraining as a plumber and gas fitter to employ ex-military personnel or facilitating at-home chemotherapy services for people through a partnership with the NHS, Jay’s story is about using business to make a meaningful difference. We're excited to hear from Jay and other business leaders as they share their journeys with Guernsey's future talent. #FutureLeaders #CareerOpportunities #Aston

This week is full of anticipation for the upcoming UK Budget and US Election, with interest rate decisions from both looming. UK borrowing rose to £16.6 billion in September, highlighting debt concerns ahead of the 30th October Budget. Mixed PMI data showed sector expansion, while the IMF upgraded its UK growth forecast to 1.1%. Markets see an 88% chance of a rate cut from the Bank of England on 7th November. In the US, Dollar movements were driven by election jitters, as markets adjusted to a potential Trump victory. The Fed’s Beige Book signalled slow growth, backing expectations for a 0.25% rate cut. Meanwhile, Eurozone data took a backseat, with the ECB voicing concerns over low inflation and economic slowdown across the bloc. Read the latest Aston market update here: https://lnkd.in/dqN_C8su #AstonCM #FXnews #MarketUpdate

Last week, UK inflation dropped to 1.7%, its lowest in over three years, pushing markets to expect a November rate cut from the Bank of England, with a potential follow-up in December. Despite this, GBP-EUR hit a two-year high. The UK also saw a drop in unemployment to 4.0%, while wage growth cooled to 3.8%. In Europe, the ECB cut rates by 0.25% to 3.4% amid stagnant growth concerns, while inflation risks remain. The ZEW sentiment figures bounced back, showing improved optimism, though core inflation held steady at 2.7%. In the US, Retail Sales grew by 0.4%, relieving some pressure on the Fed. Policymakers hinted at a cautious approach to future cuts, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen raised concerns over Trump's proposed tariffs and their inflationary impact ahead of the election. You can read more about recent market events in the latest ACM bulletin: https://shorturl.at/BbcfK #Aston #MarketUpdate #FXnews