Stanislas Bailly

Une Coupe de Cheveux en Provence (with help from GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet) In days past, a classic consulting firm interview question involved quantitative estimation, such as asking how many gas stations there are in New York. I decided to test the quantitative reasoning skills of GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet with a similar question: “What is the size of a town in Provence that might support 2-3 barbers or hair salons?” GPT-4o reasoned that a barber shop or salon might handle 15 clients a day, 5 days a week, and that potential clients might get a haircut every two months, resulting in an estimate of 600 clients per shop, and 1,200 to 1,800 clients for 2-3 shops. GPT-4o: “For instance, a town like Crestet, which has a population of around 400 (as of recent estimates), would likely not support 2-3 salons on its own, but nearby larger towns might.” “Given Crestet's small size, you might look for nearby towns such as: Vaison-la-Romaine: A larger town approximately 15 minutes away, with a population of around 6,000 people, which likely supports multiple barbers and hair salons. Carpentras: About 30 minutes away, with a population of around 30,000, offering many more options. Final Recommendation: For a reliable haircut experience, consider driving to Vaison-la-Romaine or Carpentras, where you will find several barbers and hair salons catering to a larger population. This ensures you have multiple options to choose from.” Finally, it produced the image below. Claude 3.5 Sonnet asserted that “[a] typical hair salon can serve about 100-200 regular clients” and assumed that “people get haircuts every 6-8 weeks on average.” Using the midpoints of those ranges, it got to 3,375 people to support 2-3 shops. It then noted that in “more rural areas like Provence, people might travel further for services. We should add a buffer to account for this: let's say 20%. 3,375 * 1.2 = 4,050 people” Finally, it rounded up for a conservative estimate: “To ensure the town can comfortably support 2-3 salons, let's round up. A town of about 4,500-5,000 people should be able to support 2-3 barbers or hair salons in a rural French setting like Provence.” It did an excellent job of identifying 5 nearby towns as options, based on population and driving distance, and concluded: “Among these options, Vaison-la-Romaine is likely your best bet, given its proximity and adequate size to support multiple hair salons. Orange and Carpentras, while slightly farther, offer more options due to their larger populations. Nyons is a good middle-ground option, while Buis-les-Baronnies might be worth checking if you prefer a smaller town setting.” My assessment: GPT-4o did a better job on the estimation portion of the problem and on the image, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet came up with a nice set of towns. Based on these analyses, I am heading to Vaison-la-Romaine and will report back in the comments. #technology #ai #innovation #france

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TRUMP, MAGA, opportunités pour attirer en Europe et en France, des hommes de sciences Américains ne souhaitant plus travailler aux Etats-Unis : The New York Time = There’s something very 2024 America about the emerging MAGA public health agenda. With President-elect Donald Trump naming Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — a former Democrat known for his vaccine skepticism — as his potential pick to lead the nation’s health apparatus, we are firmly in new territory, even for Trump. Kennedy not only lacks medical credentials, he is a determined outsider when it comes to the nation’s public health system. That may be a feature rather than a bug for the new administration. As Tony Mills, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, explains in a guest essay, an outsider perspective is arguably a defining characteristic of many of Trump’s potential health appointees. There’s a shared distrust of scientific expertise and establishment norms. “The emergent MAGA science policy agenda, driven by skepticism and anti-elitism, blends familiar conservative and libertarian ideas with a suspicion of expert power once more associated with the left,” writes Mills. “The result is a uniquely American brand of populism that has the potential to fundamentally reshape national politics.” Mills traces the history that got us to this point. That Republicans would emerge from a historic pandemic more skeptical of achievements like vaccines — even those championed by Trump’s own Operation Warp Speed — was not inevitable, but it’s where we are now. This new wave of leadership could transform the country’s scientific landscape, but in what way remains unknown. “Were this animus channeled into constructive policies and reforms, it could offer a needed corrective,” Mills writes. “In its unvarnished form, however, it is more radical than conservative, more destructive than constructive and more corrosive than restorative.” Aux Européens de faire marcher les transferts dans l'autre sens, Jordan Bohannon, Guest Essay The Next Four Years Are an Experiment in MAGA Science If there’s a thread tying this coalition together, it’s suspicion of expertise and elitism., By M. Anthony Mills https://lnkd.in/daYnw2X7

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The Grand Est Region of France has signed a #concession agreement with the Nova 14 #consortium to reopen the 75-kilometer Nancy – Contrexéville line, which has been closed since 2016, for passenger service and to maintain the infrastructure during the 22-year concession period. The Nova 14 #consortium includes companies #NGEConcessions (50%), Transdev (20%), and Banque des Territoires (30%) (part of the Groupe Caisse des Dépôts). The signing of the concession agreement also led to the financial closure of €200 million for the 22-year concession period. The European Investment Bank (EIB) will provide a loan for 50% of the total amount, while CIC, La Banque Postale , Caisse d'Epargne Ile-de-France, and NORD/LB will provide the remaining amount in equal shares. #UII #Rebuilding #Ukraine #Reconstruction #Rebuild #investinukraine #donors #publicprivatepartnerships #infrastructure #projectfinance #infrastructureprojects #DueDiligence #infrastructurefinance #investment #investing #FinancialResearch #Projectfunding #CapitalInvestment #InfrastructureInvesting #ESG #PPP #PublicFinance #investproject #institutionalinvestors #investmentmanager

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The French market has seen growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in the first eight months of this year. However, while the demand for BEVs among private retail customers in France continues to grow, with a 12% increase year-to-date as of August 2024, it has not expanded at the pace originally hoped for by vehicle manufacturers. Learn more about how one OEM is navigating this scenario by optimising finance offers: https://hubs.li/Q02SWdm00 #BEVTrends #ElectricVehicles #FinanceStrategy

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Honda, the second-largest automaker in Japan, is embracing the electric vehicle (EV) race from its research and development center in Tochigi, northeast of Tokyo. This facility is a hub for innovation, where the future of Honda's electric transformation is actively being shaped. With a strategic vision led by CEO Toshihiro Mibe, Honda aims to invest 10 trillion yen (approximately 62 billion euros) by 2030 to solidify its position in the EV market. The company has acknowledged gaps in its current standing, admitting they do not yet lead the EV race. However, Mibe emphasizes that Honda is not lagging either. He believes it is a critical time to invest more resources as the global transition to electric vehicles accelerates from initial adoption to broader proliferation. Honda’s engineers are harnessing new methodologies such as megacasting, a technique popularized by Tesla for creating large steel components. They are also focused on developing a unified software infrastructure and exploring innovative services, much like emerging Chinese EV manufacturers. Katsushi Inoue, head of Honda's electric division, admits the competitive landscape presents challenges. However, the company maintains confidence, drawing from its history of excellence in thermal engine technology.

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Le Vent Nous Portera - The Wind Will Carry Us Youtube link for the song: https://lnkd.in/dkAwZkFR If we ignore the exceptionally low figure in March, the wind generation of 2024 has gone very well till today. We should, of course, consider the growth in the installed capacity; however, the generation figures show us that the wind generators literally have tailwinds behind them. The largest annual wind generation had been realized in 2022 with almost 35 TWh, while it is now above 36 TWh in the last twelve months. This means that around 11% of the power generation has been sourced from wind, and its share is expected to be sustained at double-digit figures, unless it unexpectedly blows less. Source for the graph: TEIAS (https://lnkd.in/dFvK-4BN and https://lnkd.in/dfVjxVca)

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Proud to have been part of this panel on a crucial topic : supply of critical raw materials for battery value chain

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OH! We know :) The amount of exposure to pragmatic leadership is worth each cent and each second invested in this program. Highly recommended for the practical leaders of this world. 👩‍🎓 💚 #doers #zerobullshit #gettingtherightthingsdonewell #efficientandeffective

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Dear friend, colleague,   It is my pleasure to invite you to an exclusive session dedicated to the future of mobility and the opportunities in the rapidly growing (Advanced Air) Mobility market. This sector is in full motion, offering tremendous potential for investors, driven by breakthroughs in regulations, technological innovations, and the rising demand for sustainable solutions. During this session, you will gain insight into the latest developments in the mobility market.   As a global leader in FlyDrive mobility solutions, PAL-V is at the forefront of this transformation. Their unique technology combines the advantages of both air and road mobility, setting them apart in a market with unparalleled growth potential. In this session, the team of PAL-V will share the progress it made and how they are preparing for large-scale international expansion. A PAL-V flying car will also be on display, and we look forward to telling you more about it.   https://www.pal-v.com/nl/   Why invest in the future of mobility? The (Advanced Air) Mobility market is on the verge of a breakthrough. Now is the time to invest in this exciting sector, where innovations are driving fundamental changes in how people and goods move. In this session, we will present exclusive investment opportunities in this market, where technology and regulation come together to create a new reality.   The 28th of November at 14.00 PAL-V will host a 2-hour session about the future of mobility at the Fairmont hotel in Monaco. I will be there as well.   During this session, the management of PAL-V will explain more about the flying car on display and do a deep dive into PAL-V’s vision about air mobility.   The Air League of Monaco at the Stelios foundation hosts this event together with PAL-V. I am a long term advisor to PAL-V.   If this is of interest to you, please let me know and I coordinate with Air League / PAL-V. I look forward to seeing you!   Warm regards, Michael #AdvancedAirMobilityMarket #FlyDrive #mobilitysolutions #flyingcar #pal-v #monaco #fairmonthotel #investments

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For anyone waiting for #Mario to say something 😐 : "FIRST, – Europe must profoundly refocus its collective efforts on closing the innovation gap with the US and China, especially in #advanced #technologies [...]. #Quantum #computing is poised to be the next major innovation, but five of the top ten tech companies globally in terms of quantum investment are based in the US and four in China. None are based in the EU [...]. The EU’s key instrument to support radically new technologies at low readiness levels – the European Innovation Council’s (EIC) Pathfinder instrument – has a budget of EUR 256 million for 2024, compared with USD 4.1 billion for US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and USD 2 billion for the other “ARPA” agencies. It is also mostly led by EU officials rather than top scientists and innovation experts [...] If Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage. We will not be able to finance our social model. We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions. This is an existential #challenge." #Draghi #innovation

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I'm excited to share news about an upcoming book that promises to be a game-changer in the world of business innovation! 📚🚀 "Innovative Business Development: Implementing Transformation from Within" by Yaron Flint is set to be released in September 2024. As someone who had the privilege of working alongside Yaron at Continental, I can attest to his exceptional expertise in the realms of startups, innovation execution, and scaling groundbreaking ideas. If you're looking to stay ahead in today's rapidly evolving business landscape, this book should definitely be on your radar. #InnovativeBusiness #StartupStrategy #BusinessTransformation #YaronFlint

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Although the article is principally US centric it touches on similar issues in Europe. Having said that even if confined to the US market,which its not ,the knock on effect within global operators sends ripples throughout. The common thread is over capacity and too much inventory which in turn has the inevitable effect on margins. If that wasn’t enough, the failure of the legacy manufacturers to streamline production and reign in costs has compounded their predicament. To add further pain, years of low profitability and the focus on current shareholder returns has stifled investment leading to stale product offerings and inefficiency. Enter the new pestilence, the Chinese. Forget the handwringing just for one moment. They have the advantage of fresh new facilities, they have read the runes as to where the industry is heading and have invested accordingly and have better control of costs with their vertical supply chains. The global slowdown during COVID was an ideal time for the legacy manufacturers to restructure and reorient their businesses. This they failed to do as they simply put up prices and waited for business as usual. Turbulent times ahead, and it won’t be pretty.

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Industrial Startup Studio OSS Ventures Raises €8.5M #OSSVentures, a Paris-based industrial #startup studio, has successfully raised €8.5 million in its latest funding round. This funding was led by Tikehau Capital, France 2030’s French Tech Accélération 2 fund (Bpifrance), Etablissements Peugeot Frères, and business angels including Max Pog. With this new capital, OSS Ventures has now amassed a total of €11 million. Founded by Renan Devillieres, OSS Ventures partners with industrial companies to enhance productivity, improve product quality, and address the climate crisis. The studio works closely with industries, visiting sites weekly to identify challenges and develop co-created solutions. They recruit founders and co-build startups, investing €300K to €500K for a 25-30% equity stake, and provide comprehensive support through all growth stages. Since its inception in late 2019, OSS Ventures has launched 15 startups and invested in four additional projects. Their innovative solutions are currently used by over 40,000 operators monthly across nearly 2,000 industrial sites worldwide, with a significant presence in France, Europe, and the US. The 19 startups under OSS Ventures' umbrella generate a collective annual recurring revenue (ARR) of €25 million. With the new funding, OSS Ventures aims to establish five startups annually, focusing on expansion in Europe and the US, and targeting significant international clientele by 2027. This strategic move not only positions OSS Ventures as a key player in industrial innovation but also underscores the growing importance of tech-driven solutions in enhancing industrial operations and addressing global challenges. Want to stay up to date with the market? Here my newsletter: - Linkedin: https://lnkd.in/d4h8zqKA  - Substack: https://lnkd.in/dzfGJzmW

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Dollar or Yuan? Investment Insight 13. Would the BRICS countries dethrone the Western economies? Not soon...The rumour about the falling US Dollar ignores 2 key factors. The first is GDP Per Capita (the US is still ranked 7th while China is 75th!). The second factor is Research/Innovation, (just name a few BRICS innovations that you have adopted, except TikTok!). Investment using the US Dollar is still the best strategy! And there are many interesting products. Act now!!

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