Philippe Le Corre

Deepening military and economic cooperation between Russia and North Korea is helping sustain the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine and offering Pyongyang a technological boost, feeding unease in China and the West about the increasingly intimate relationship between the two authoritarian countries. In recent months, expansionist Russia and reclusive North Korea have exchanged everything from food and oil to weapons. As the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine drags on, Russian President Vladimir Putin has looked to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to help restock his depleted arsenal. In turn, Moscow plans to transfer military technology to nuclear-armed Pyongyang, a move that could further the rogue state’s weapons capabilities, unnerving Western powers. Putin’s visit to North Korea, which is set to begin this week and is only his second to the reclusive nation in more than two decades, serves a dual purpose for the two leaders. Each wants to extract more from the other while rattling the West, analysts who follow Russian and North Korean dynamics said. For Washington, military cooperation between its authoritarian adversaries increases the potential for prolonged regional conflicts and the overstretch of its military capabilities. With WSJ colleague Dasl Yoon

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My latest column: China has been using an increasingly aggressive hybrid-warfare strategy to increase its power and influence, especially in the strategically important South China Sea. Countering it will be one of the defining challenges for Trump’s incoming administration.

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Rising Tensions in the South China Sea: Philippines Seeks Allies to Counter China's Militarization   Readmore: https://lnkd.in/eQw7THUH The South China Sea, a vital maritime region rich in resources, has emerged as a major geopolitical flashpoint due to China's increasingly aggressive actions. Beijing's relentless pursuit of territorial dominance is evident in its rapid militarization of artificial islands within the disputed Spratly archipelago..................   #BreakingNews, #SouthChinaSea, #Philippines, #China, #MilitaryNews, #GlobalPolitics, #InternationalRelations, #Geopolitics, #SubiReef, #CurrentEvents, #WorldNews, #Trending, #AsiaNews, #Defense, #GlobalSecurity

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INFOGRAPHIC: BT explores how the US presidential election will shape Southeast Asia’s future.

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Just wrote a story summarizing all the not-so-subtle political message from China's official media during the third plenum. Xi is now hailed as a "thoroughbred reformer" and "Marxist statesman, thinker and strategist". In the party’s grand title ranking, Mao used to be the only grand strategist, while Deng was the only reformer. Xi now has clinched both. We should note that Xi's reform is different from the typical Western understanding of “reform” – which implies market liberalisation –. Xi’s vision is about improving the party’s governance and delivering China’s great rejuvenation. https://lnkd.in/gBaAZKFS

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23 Oct 2024: my article in China Daily today on how the onus of keeping expanding BRICS on right track lies on two largest economies of China and India as two national leases meet in Kazan today https://lnkd.in/g3qsprjC

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5/8/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3wxC1Bu 1. Ex-Pentagon official stresses need for war plan rethink, swift OPCON transfer, USFK overhaul 2. North Korea and Iran — a new anti-Western alliance? 3. Exclusive: Ukraine examines N.Korean missile debris amid fears of Moscow-Pyongyang axis 4. Chinese warplane fired flares, put Australian Navy helicopter in danger, Canberra says 5. N. Korean leader congratulates Putin on inauguration 6. N. Korea's ex-propaganda chief Kim Ki-nam dies at 94: KCNA 7. Ex-President Moon's memoir to be out later this month 8. Young N. Koreans question why the state demands absolute loyalty 9. After 7 infants die in North Korean orphanage, workers arrested for stealing food 10. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Recruitment for the world's longest military service (3)　Poor supplies, uniforms are late in coming, and thieves...Regime forces people to donate supplies to military 11. N. Korea is mysteriously delaying its constitutional amendment 12. Former North Korean diplomat named president of unification institute 13. What comes after UN Panel of Experts? 14. South Korea Plans $7 Billion Push to Pivot EV Battery Industry Away From China 15. South Korea holds live-fire drills to defend islands on North Korea’s doorstep 16. A Surprise South Korean Boom Is Going Unnoticed 17. Slaves to the Bomb: The Role and Fate of North Korea's Nuclear Scientists

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An excellent read by Mike Mochizuki on the #IndoPacific's dangerous dynamics. Key take homes: 1. "the #US and its allies and partners must invest much more in diplomacy with #China, in addition to bolstering military deterrence." 2. "the United States and key allies like #Japan should make a sustained effort to establish a durable crisis prevention and management dialogue with China involving each nation’s foreign policy and security agencies" Open societies like the US allow for this open dialogue about US China relations. China could help itself tremendously by allowing for the continuum of views that DO exist in China about the problems with the US and at home with their own government and #Xijinping instead of the constant flow of anti-US/ crisis propaganda https://lnkd.in/gPCh5mvC

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  Military spending is surging in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, a development officials link to regional conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, although experts doubt the buildup will increase stability. While Russia was the dominant arms supplier to these countries for more than three decades, other countries including Turkey, China and the United States have now entered the market, as Voice of America reports here from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. #kyrgyzstan #uzbekistan #turkmenistan #kazakhstan #russia #tajikistan #iran #cso #voa #centralasia #arms Central Asian military spending surges amid border tension, regional conflict fears (voanews.com)

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10/11/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/4eBj4Pa 1. Present Situation of U.S.-ROK Alliance on Defence Cost Sharing Negotiations (Critique from north Korea's Propaganda and Agitation Department) 2. New report documents huge surge in North Korean crackdowns on outside info 3. North Korea wades into Ukraine 4. Reports of N.K. soldiers in Ukraine may show Russia's 'profound' desperation: U.S. official 5. N. Korea claims U.S. exploits S. Korea's security uneasiness for new defense cost deal 6. S. Korean expert calls for stronger defense industrial cooperation with U.S., voices concern over export controls 7. S. Korea, Japan agree to bolster security cooperation against N.K. threats 8. N. Korean leader calls for fighting against corruption in message marking party founding anniv. 9. U.S. takes Korean Peninsula security 'very seriously': Pentagon spokesperson 10. N. Korea sends more trash balloons toward S. Korea: JCS 11. Large majority of Americans believe S. Korea-U.S. alliance is in U.S. security interests 12. Explosions ring out from DMZ as North Korea clears land with dynamite 13. Jihyun Park: A woman’s journey from North Korea to British politics 14. [Room 39, Lee Jeong-ho's Eyes] "Kim Jong-un is obsessed with the role of 'construction company president' and the whole country is a construction site" 15. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “North Korea’s Land Route Cutoff Aims to Block Personnel Outflow” 16. North Korea ramps up weapons production to meet Russia's demands 17. Unauthorized communication: North Korea targets USIM-enabled smartwatches 18. FBI: “North Korea Uses AI to Launch Sophisticated Cyber Attacks” 19. “Delay in Constitutional Amendment of ‘Hostile Against Korea’, Indicates Internal Conflict in North Korea” 20. China and North Korea Partner to Persecute Christians, Experts Say 21. North Korea and Iran: The Evil Axis of Missiles 22. A Woman Won South Korea’s First Literature Nobel. That Says a Lot. 23. N. Korean man crosses into S. Korea in 3rd defection in 2 months 24. Yoon deepens ties with ASEAN, seeks support on N. Korean issues 25. U.S. envoy highlights increased repression in N. Korea in recent years

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7/16/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3W6z047 1. Yoon says S. Korea-U.S. alliance elevated to 'nuclear-based' one 2. U.N. report condemns N. Korea's 'extensive, multilayered' system of forced labor 3. The Emerging Nuclear Scenario 4. Geography Is a Dealbreaker for Coalition Building in Asia 5. N. Korean leader's sister warns of 'gruesome' consequences over anti-Pyongyang leaflets 6. FM Cho expresses hope for cooperation between S. Korea's new space agency, NASA 7. North Korean diplomat commended by Kim Jong Un defects to South Korea 8. Washington and Korean Reunification: What Can America Do? 9. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Decreasing number of train riders leads to fall in train services…government focuses on using trains for freight transportation 10. Setting the right level of ambition for Korea- China relations 11. Exclusive: "North Korea has no hope under Kim Jong-un's regime"

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What can we learn from the outcomes of the CCP’s last Third Plenum? What are its implications for China’s economy, the global economy and the European Union? The policy brief makes an account of 10 years of “xi-nomics”. Is Xi’s approach going to restore economic growth in China? #policybrief #thirdplenum #CCP #China #economicsecurity #globaleconomy #xinomics

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Several media reports have attributed China's stockpiling efforts to its preparations for war, specifically over Taiwan. Is it true or is it more alarmist and clickbaity journalism? Bong Xin Ying, in her first piece at the CNA Digital International Desk in preparation for her China posting, examines the facts and seeks out experts' views on whether there's truth beneath these headlines. Hopefully her piece offers you a more balanced, accurate and clear picture of what China is doing.

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🇨🇳🐺 VOA [excerpt]: #China’s new ambassador to #Cambodia, Wang Wenbin, arrived in early July with a reputation as a highly experienced and combative #diplomat in what is seen as the first move in a coming battle for influence between superpowers in the Southeast Asian nation. The #UnitedStates and #Australia are expected to follow soon with their own new envoys who are seasoned in China relations. The personnel moves come less than a year into the first term of Prime Minister Hun Manet, a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and Cambodia’s first new prime minister in decades. Hun Manet is the son of Cambodia’s longtime leader Hun Sen and part of a new generation of politicians from the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, which has been in power for more than 40 years. #Diplomats are waiting to see whether he will adjust his country’s “ironclad friendship” established with China by his father. At present, China is Cambodia's largest trading partner and a significant source of foreign investment and development assistance. China wants to deepen those ties through its #BeltandRoad Initiative and other cooperative frameworks. Potentially standing in the way of that goal are concerns in Cambodia about an over-reliance on China, an effort by Phnom Penh to balance relations with the West, and public concerns about #corruption and Chinese investments primarily benefiting the elite. Wang is a former Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson and former ambassador to Tunisia, with more than 30 years of diplomatic experience, according to China Daily. He is one of what China describes as a new breed of combative “wolf warrior” diplomats. With his extensive experience, analysts believe Wang will be able to sustain the close ties between China and Cambodia or even increase Beijing’s #influence with the Phnom Penh government and the region. ... The U.S, meanwhile, is awaiting the final confirmation by the U.S. Senate of its next ambassador to Cambodia, according to a U.S. Embassy spokesperson in Phnom Penh. He is Robert Forden, a career diplomat who has held the second-ranking position at the U.S. missions in both Beijing and Taipei and was charge d’affaires at the Beijing embassy from 2020 to 2021. Australia, for its part, this month named its next ambassador to Phnom Penh as Derek Yip, who has held two postings to Beijing and served most recently as assistant secretary of the Foreign Ministry’s East Asia political branch. According to Em Sovannara, a political science professor at the University of Cambodia in Phnom Penh, the appointment of capable, senior diplomats from both superpowers could make Cambodia a diplomatic battleground on issues such as the South China Sea, where China has competing territorial claims with several of Phnom Penh’s fellow ASEAN members. The U.S. is also concerned about Chinese involvement in Cambodia’s controversial Ream naval base. #news #geopolitics

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Interviewed by Tom Hussain with South China Morning Post #scmp for his new piece on #china and #bahrain forming a "comprehensive strategic partnership." Full remarks: What has motivated Beijing to form a comprehensive strategic partnership with Bahrain instead of the lesser type of partnership it has with most Middle Eastern countries?   Bahrain is home to a substantial US military presence, including the US Naval Forces Central Command (#centcom) and the US 5th Fleet, and no doubt many will think this has motivated China to privilege its ties with Bahrain. How does the expanded Bahrain-China relationship fit into Beijing's growing political role in the Middle East?   China is advancing a anti-hegemony strategy wherever possible, and Bahrain has long been a linchpin of US #hegemony in the Middle East. One of the keys to understanding US policy in Central Asia and the Middle East following 9/11 was that it aimed to create new challenges for China, i.e., to penetrate Central Asia with airbases capable of threatening space ports and military industries strategically located in China’s western regions, and to likewise put a massive US military footprint in the Persian Gulf, one that was capable of controlling the global flow of oil, including shutting down China’s access. Consequently, the developments of closer relations and cooperation between China and Russia, China and Central Asia, and likewise China and the Middle East, especially Bahrain—these are the result of longstanding efforts to mitigate the last vestiges of Washington’s previous anti-China containment strategy, particularly as a new a more direct contest has emerged in the Pacific.   Do you expect #beijing to play a role in the normalisation of relations between Bahrain and #iran?   Beijing will encourage warmer ties between Bahrain and Iran and may play an instrumental role in moving them forward, but other factors will probably prove more decisive, including Tehran and Riyadh’s reconciliation, which China supported but was underway long before Beijing became involved. We also need to consider shifting dynamics associated with America’s failed efforts to overthrow the Syrian state, the warmer relations between Iraq and Iran, and the potential return of what some call the “axis of resistance,” give Israeli atrocities in Gaza and the Occupied Territories.

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Today in Asia Times, I wrote about the escalating military basing competition between the US and China. China has expanded its presence at Cambodia's Ream Naval Base, sparking concerns in Washington as this could enhance China's strategic leverage in the South China Sea, particularly in a potential conflict involving Taiwan. Meanwhile, the US has deployed its advanced Typhon missile system in the Philippines, heightening tensions by giving Manila the capability to strike targets within China. This basing battle reflects broader US-China rivalry as both superpowers fortify strategic positions across the Asia-Pacific. China's dual-use infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative, including ports, are seen as potential military footholds, while the US bolsters regional alliances to counter China’s influence. These developments deepen geopolitical rifts and raise the stakes for future military confrontations.

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6/12/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3VdMk6c 1. South Koreans fire warning shots after North Korean troops cross poorly demarcated border 2. N. Korea's Kim hopes to continue to develop 'meaningful, close' ties with Putin 3. Let’s unpack some questions about Russia’s role in North Korea’s rocket program 4. DPRK (North Korea): Open Briefing on the Human Rights Situation : What's In Blue : Security Council Report 5. Yoon denounces N. Korea's nuclear development as threat to nonproliferation regime 6. Editorial: Seoul should pursue nuclear capabilities as US reassesses strategy 7. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Army removes 'unification' phrase with paint, even removing 'sacred words' of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il, confusing many people 8. 'US ready for anything' amid North Korean threats: Ambassador Goldberg 9. What to make of ‘milestone’ US-ROK nuke guidelines on deterring North Korea 10. Pyongyang airport terminal cleared of planes in sign of prep for Putin visit 11. What to make of ‘milestone’ US-ROK nuke guidelines on deterring North Korea 12. New Korean flare-up carries greater air of menace 13. Oil Prospect Found by Tiny Firm Spurs Hope, Doubt in Korea

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Today in Asia Times, I wrote about the intensifying arms race between the US and China in directed-energy weapons, focusing on anti-drone technologies critical for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Both nations are rapidly developing high-power microwave and laser systems to counter the growing threat of drone swarms, showcased by China's recent display of mobile directed-energy weapons at the Zhuhai Airshow. The US, meanwhile, has demonstrated its Coyote Block 2 interceptors, which have successfully destroyed drones in global deployments and are expected to expand in numbers and sophistication. China's directed-energy weapons, developed by corporations like Norinco, highlight its strategic push to neutralize drones in high-volume scenarios, while the US is advancing towards enhanced capabilities through additional drone interceptors and directed-energy research. Both nations view directed-energy weapons as crucial due to their ability to neutralize multiple drones without reloading and with minimal collateral damage. However, operational challenges, including energy demands and limited stockpiles, mean the US and China are exploring both kinetic and non-kinetic solutions to meet future drone threats effectively.

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