Laurent Brunelle

Despite challenging headwinds, investors remain committed to thematic investing with the percentage of those currently investing or planning to invest increasing since 2020, according to the third Thematics Barometer published by BNP Paribas Asset Management and BNP Paribas CIB, in partnership with Coalition Greenwich (a division of CRISIL). The survey aims to provide the global investment community with robust, credible and regular information about the key trends evolving within thematic investment. Discover here some of the key findings which have just been released: https://lnkd.in/ekefdiGV -Renewable energies and mobility driving sustainability themes -AI and healthcare lead the Innovation & Disruption themes -Asset allocation to thematic investing: the rise of private markets

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𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 - What does “speed” have to do with trend-following strategies? This was the theme of my presentation at this year’s BNP Paribas conference in Nice. A big thanks to Edouard Fine, Julien Turc and the entire BNP team for the opportunity to present on the evolving construction of trend-following. Key takeaways: 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 The most common cross-asset trend-following allocations (medium term) have historically revealed fascinating patterns: • 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀: Long positioned about 80% of the time, with longs significantly outweighing shorts – primarily risk on. • 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀: Long positioned roughly two-thirds of the time, typically double the size of shorts – primarily risk off • 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀: A more balanced profile, capturing opportunities in both upward and downward moves – offering diversification --> These tendencies reflects the persistent risk premia inherent in equities and bonds. As a result, trend-following strategies often align with these structural dynamics, leading to overlaps with traditional risk premia positioning. For this reason, we differentiate our trend allocation by its “speed” to increase robustness and reliability.  𝗪𝗵𝘆 “𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀”? Definition of speed: Speed refers to the length of the lookback period used to identify trends – or, put differently the strategy’s reactivity to recent data. We carefully blend medium-term, short-term, and intraday allocations, to create a robust trend portfolio. Each plays a unique role: • 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘂𝗺-𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺: The performance engine, designed to capture sustained price moves. This often means benefiting from positive growth periods while also providing resilience during prolonged sell-offs. • 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁-𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺: A defensive complement to medium-term trends with the goal to increase reactivity. By implementing short-term trends conditionally – ensuring that there is no overlap with the medium-term trend allocation – we avoid double layering of risks. This approach minimizes drawdowns during fast turning points and ensures smoother performance across regimes. • 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗮𝘆: A nimble, responsive risk engine. With no lookback memory, this allocation is highly effective at monetizing immediate market drawdowns, particularly during high volatility regimes.  --> By strategically blending trend speeds and incorporating conditionality, our approach allows us to thrive in both risk-on and risk-off environments. Trend Following has much more to offer than just “𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝗽𝗵𝗮” For us, trend following goes beyond downside protection during periods of stress. It’s also about participating to the upside during rising markets and adjusting to new market narratives, such as inflation. For more information on the DOM Global Macro UCITS Fund launch in January please contact: Max Witschel, CFA Valentin Petrescou Jeremy Gatto Philipp Müller, CFA

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Thank you Caroline Mignon from Les Echos for this article which summarizes well our convictions at BNP Paribas Asset Management. Indeed, we are in the middle of a paradigm shift of the world economy, after forty years of globalisation and low interest rates. As in any transition, there will be winners and losers, and you will have to have strong convictions to navigate through uncertainties. I therefore believe in the comeback of active management in the current high rates and uncertain environment. Our growth has been fueled by inflows in the following three main asset classes in the last three years: - Money markets as the surge in rates has led many investors to favor these short-term products without risk and we have best in class performance from our investment teams. - Private assets for which we have high ambitions and have been able to grow organically as well as externally over the past two years. - ETFs where we have continued to widen our ESG ETF range, including in Fixed Income and ESG active ETFs. Read more in this article (for subscribers): BNPP AM persiste et signe dans la gestion active | Les Echos https://lnkd.in/dHmRexvV

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🐝 Finance & biodiversity are definitely interconnected Listed impact investing has a crucial role to play in attracting capital to companies committed to biodiversity. 💡 More than 50% of global GDP depends on biodiversity. Given the convergence of these challenges, all sectors of the economy need to embark on the path of transition. Innovative players and daring impact investors are seizing this central challenge, like #LFDE. As a pioneer of listed impact investing in France, we support European companies that contribute to carbon neutrality and the preservation of biodiversity. 🌳 Read our analysis here below in French

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My views on US inflation and activity and the implications for the Fed published (in French, here: https://bit.ly/3xIlvPH) in Allnews.ch, La finance suisse dans l'e-media . For the first time in four months, the US May inflation report showed encouraging figure, with underlying inflation below market expectations. Inflation fell from 3.6% to 3.4% y/y, with a monthly rise of 0.16%, resulting in annualized inflation just below 2% for the first time in three years. . After significant fluctuations earlier in the year, market expectations have stabilized, now anticipating close to two rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year, while the Fed's own rate cut projections for the end of the year have evolved from three cuts in March to just one in June, contingent on sustained progress towards the 2% inflation target. . The fall in core inflation is due to a continued contraction in goods prices (-1.7% y/y) and a slight drop in services inflation. The fall in goods prices is largely due to lower demand, illustrated by a contraction in retail sales volumes, down by almost 4% since their peak in April 2021. . Services inflation excluding rents fell from 6.5% to 5.5% over six months at an annualized rate, first decline since October 2023, likely due to recent declining demand. US consumption contracted in April, with revised Q1 growth down to 2% annualized. If consumption remains at April's level, Q2 growth could slow to 1.3%, causing the US economy's growth to shift from resilience to a significant slowdown. . With demand running out of steam, the Fed's remaining concerns are twofold; i) the labor market, where wages are rising too sharply (4.1% y/y), ii) price of goods which are expected to contribute less and less to the disinflation process. . Monetary policy remains slightly restrictive, about 60 basis points above the neutral level. This allows the Fed to pass on any fall in inflation to its key rate, September could mark the start of US monetary easing if consistent inflation reports continue.

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It’s a bit chilly out there, waiting for a Eurostar train to arrive on the way to more year-end client meetings ... … but time flies when you are in great company, such as: the legendary Rick Rieder, Andy Nielsen, Estelle Castres, Arnaud Gihan, Ahmed Talhaoui, CFA, Peter Scharl, MBA, CFA, Nathalie Boschat, Maëlle Struillou. As we all continue to work hard to decode economies and financial markets - and ultimately build better portfolios: check out the BlackRock Investment Institute’s 2025 Global Outlook, fresh off the press here 👉 https://lnkd.in/ensAw58x! Capital at risk.

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💡 More and more investors are attracted by the defensive nature of private infrastructure debt, but also by its contribution to financing the energy transition. Read our analysis below 👇

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⊙ Proud that our Ostrum Actions CAC 40 strategy has been rewarded at the 2024 Refinitiv Lipper Fund Awards!   🏆 Equity France - Best Strategy over 3 Years: Ostrum Actions CAC 40   We are proud to have been rewarded with this prize, celebrating over two decades of commitment to performance. Our rigorous investment process has enabled us to benefit from our long-term strategy in a particularly uncertain market environment.   👏 Congratulations everyone! Emmanuel Bourdeix Mathieu Bigot Pierre Savarzeix Nicolas Just Juan Sebastian Caicedo, CFA Ruixing CAI, CFA Dorian A.   More info on our website 👉 https://lnkd.in/eXxTNhs9   Invest. Pro #MarketingCommunication This is a marketing document and is designed for information purposes only. All investments carry risks, including the risk of capital loss. Any reference to a ranking, certification, award and/or rating provides no guarantee of future performances on these aspects, or of the fund or fund manager. Any performance figures mentioned refer to previous years. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future showings.

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I recently had the pleasure of sitting down with Régis Bégué, the newest Partner at Zadig Asset Management, for an insightful discussion. With a 30-year career in finance, Régis has a wealth of experience from his time at ODDO BHF, Lazard Frères Gestion, and now, Zadig – naturally, his insights and expertise are truly invaluable to build upon the strength of our partnership and shared philosophies. When I asked Régis why he joined Zadig, he said, "Zadig and I share an investment approach that isn’t confined by themes but is rather style agnostic. We are driven by a relentless pursuit of alpha generation." This not only complements iM Global Partner’s ethos but also enhances the diverse strategies we employ with our Partners. What particularly stood out to me was Zadig’s unique approach to split research and portfolio management, covering a wide array of companies – leveraged, high growth, deep value, and cyclical. This strategic diversification mitigates biases and enriches our decision-making process. Looking forward, Régis and Zadig are excited by the new additions to the portfolio, including Roche, Publicis, AstraZeneca, and Renault Group. Watch the full video to learn more about Regis, his career, his reasons for joining Zadig and why iM Global Partner is excited about having him on the team. We are confident Regis will be an invaluable asset to Zadig's leadership team: https://lnkd.in/ewkrh5Uf Thank you for the conversation, Régis. It was a pleasure talking to you. #AssetManagement #InvestmentManagement #Finance #Equities #Markets #Strategy #PeoplePerformance

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Let's talk #duration for a minute, from a cross asset perspective. Read in the below what Aurèle Storno thinks of rates trends and how to harness such forces in a multiasset portfolio ahead of 2025. #investment #multiasset

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What do Paris and Private Markets have in common? Both have become hot topics in recent times for a variety of compelling reasons. If you're headed to Paris for IPEM Paris 2024 next week, be sure to catch the three panels featuring our investment team Deborah Zurkow, Maria Lucia Aguilar-Wittmann, and Sebastian Schroff. They will delve into the unique value propositions of infrastructure, real assets, private debt, private credit, and more. 🕥 Join us, among 6000+ delegates from over 50+ countries, for unparalleled networking and in-person meeting opportunities with our investment specialists: https://bit.ly/4dSsVjd 📍 Visit Allianz Global Investors at Booth R114, Level 1, Hall Paris, The Palais des Congrès #PrivateMarkets #Infrastructure #PrivateDebt #PrivateCredit #IPEMParis2024 For fund distributors and professional investors only. Investing involves risk.

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📆 [#AmundiWIF] The day has come and the Amundi World Investment Forum has started with the opening speech of the CEO, Valérie Baudson. Hundreds of people are attending the two days event devoted to understanding the trends and the forces that are moving the world of today and tomorrow. Stay tuned! #assetmanagement #investments

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You pick our brain, we pick your funds… a core satellite solution to help you to focus on your business #riskmanagement #multimanagent

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My view on the Fed after the 50 bp cut to keep the economy strong published in @allnews (in French): https://bit.ly/4gDCjJx   . The Fed cut its key rate by 50 basis points (bp), starting a new phase of accommodative monetary policy. . This 50 bp cut does not reflect the Fed's lag in the economic cycle, but rather its commitment not to fall behind and to ensure economic growth close to potential, as well as a solid job market, while inflation gradually moves closer to the 2% target. The FOMC's forecasts confirm this outlook. . Like the Fed, the market is anticipating a terminal rate of 2.9%, corresponding to the neutral rate. The idea of a sharp slowdown or recession, which would lead to a terminal rate below the neutral rate - a hypothesis that the market was still considering a few weeks ago - has been ruled out. . The level of this neutral rate, expected at 2.9% or 0.9% in real terms (r*), remains contested. The average from the two main r* models suggest a real neutral rate of 1.7%, implying a nominal neutral rate of 3.7%. It seems then that the market is expecting three too many of the eight cuts it is anticipating. . In practice, the Fed is rightly not going to rush to a neutral rate, the level of which remains highly uncertain, but will favour a gradual approach in order to identify it . Following another 50 bp cut between now and year end, further monetary easing will be spaced out to continue to assess the impact of past restrictive measures, in particular their transmission to economic activity and inflation, to observe the effects of the first rate cuts, and to take account of the policies of the new administration - whether Republican or Democrat - which are likely to worsen the fiscal deficit. Against this backdrop, market expectations of 8 rate cuts out of the next 9 Fed meetings seem clearly exaggerated . The market's expectations of a terminal rate being too low and reaching it too quickly may be unrealistic, making bond markets less attractive

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Thrilled to announce that Fabien Oreve, Deputy Global Head of Trading & Securities Financing at Candriam, will be joining the Market Structure panel at the upcoming tradetech conference in Paris on April 23rd.   View the agenda 🔗  https://lnkd.in/eXq77qKT   Fabien will discuss the challenges posed by market fragmentation across European equities, the opportunities to create a more efficient market structure that attracts liquidity, and the importance of diversity of trading mechanisms.   Don't miss out on this insightful discussion. Together we continue #Investing4Tomorrow #TradeTech #MarketStructure

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2024 continues to be marked by the return of merger and acquisition activity, mega deals and increased bids, after three years of a down cycle. To take advantage of this promising environment, don't hesitate to read the interview of our Merger and Arbitrage portfolio managers Fabienne Cretin Stephane Dieudonne : https://okt.to/XRC1Ly #Investment #Investing #Marketingcommunication #Assetmanagement

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2024 continues to be marked by the return of merger and acquisition activity, mega deals and increased bids, after three years of a down cycle. To take advantage of this promising environment, don't hesitate to read the interview of our Merger and Arbitrage portfolio managers Fabienne Cretin Stephane Dieudonne : https://okt.to/pf62xc #Investment #Investing #Marketingcommunication #Assetmanagement

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2024 continues to be marked by the return of merger and acquisition activity, mega deals and increased bids, after three years of a down cycle. To take advantage of this promising environment, don't hesitate to read the interview of our Merger and Arbitrage portfolio managers Fabienne Cretin Stephane Dieudonne : https://okt.to/JinrjN #Investment #Investing #Marketingcommunication #Assetmanagement

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