💥 The recent breakup of Intelsat 33E, is reminiscent of the 3 previous ones that occurred in the last 4 months. Here is a focus on CZ-6A breakup 🛰️
💥 The recent breakup of Intelsat 33E, is reminiscent of the 3 previous ones that occurred in the last 4 months. After the breakup of Resurs satellite on June 26th, the breakup of the CZ-6A upper stage followed on August 6th in Low Earth Orbit, then an Atlas 5 upper-stage fragmentation occurred in Geostationary Transfer Orbit on September 6th, just one month before Intelsat 33E. Here's a look at the latest massive fragmentation in Low Earth Orbit, the breakup of the Chinese CZ-6A rocket body shortly after the launch of the first 18, of an expected 14,000 Chinese satellites in the Qianfan constellation, and its short-term consequences. The SYNAPSE screenshot below shows the Chinese Qianfan satellites (in green), evolving at the same orbital altitude and plan as hundreds of orbital debris (in red) generated by the fragmentation of the CZ-6A upper stage used to put them in orbit. 🛰️ It all began with the launch of the first 18, over 14.000 satellites, of the Qianfan constellation by a Long March 6A launcher, abbreviated CZ-2A, on August 6, 2024. Below we can see how most of these satellites perform orbit raising, to reach their respective orbital position. These operations shall of course consider the collisions risks with fragments, derelict space objects and other operational satellites. Unfortunately, QIANFAN-7 (Norad 60385) has shown no manoeuvring capability since its orbit injection. If QIANFAN-7 is lost, it will be very bad news for space safety and sustainability. Firstly, because the satellite was inserted at an altitude of 800 km and will take much longer than the 25-year rule to re-enter. Secondly, because it highlights the relatively low reliability of the satellites of this future massive constellation. 🌍 Which are the short-term consequences of such break-up, for the space safety and sustainability? We provide a synthetic view of the collision risks induced by the debris of the CZ-2A fragmentation, since the day of the fragmentation, for typical operational screening parameters. It can be immediately noted that among the hundreds of collision risks detected since fragmentation epoch to October 24th, more than 80% are with space objects other than the fragments of CZ-2A Rocket body. 🚀 In parallel, and despite the collision risks incurred by the 18 Qianfan satellites, most of them perform the necessary orbital manoeuvres to progressively form this future constellation, supposed to be composed by 2030 of 14.000 satellites. Using proprietary algorithms, we can detect orbital manoeuvre performed by the satellites and follow their path to their operational orbit. As shown below, the Synapse's “pattern of life” feature enables analysis of a space object's orbiting behaviour throughout its lifetime. It allows to identify and evaluate changes in a satellite's orbit, and to record and analyse them over a user selected period. Look Up Space : 360 ways to enable Space 🛰️