Deutsche Bank Research

From all of us at Deutsche Bank Research, we wish you Happy Holidays and all the best for 2025! #dbresearch #HappyHolidays

“I think if you were trying to draw a narrative for next year, you could see some upside risk in Europe relative to the baseline”, says Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen. He appeared live on Bloomberg, where he discussed the market volatility this week, along with some potential curveballs that could affect the outlook in 2025. Watch a part of his discussion with Kriti Gupta, Anna Edwards, and Guy Johnson: https://lnkd.in/eM6YSv_8 Henry's segment starts at 50:47. #dbresearch #globalmarkets Deutsche Bank

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, making this the third consecutive rate cut of the year. Deutsche Bank's Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti breaks down what this means for the economy and the outlook for 2025. #dbresearch #DeutscheBank #economy

🚗 Is the automotive industry crisis all doom and gloom? Weak car sales in China, US tariff concerns, and job security fears are dominating headlines. But is the situation really as dire as it seems? Tim Rokossa, Global Coordinator Automotive Research at Deutsche Bank, joined Podzept to discuss the state of the German automotive industry. While acknowledging the challenges, Rokossa sees a silver lining. "The mood is much worse than the situation," he states, highlighting the resilience and innovation of German carmakers. 🎧 Tune in to the latest Podzept episode (German language) as we delve into: ▶️ The current state of the Chinese car market and its impact on German manufacturers. ▶️ The potential consequences of US tariffs on the industry. ▶️ The future of car manufacturing – who will dominate the high-margin and mass-market segments? ▶️ What needs to happen for Germany to navigate this crisis and emerge stronger? Rokossa provides valuable insights and a fresh perspective on the challenges and opportunities facing the automotive industry. Let's discuss! What are your thoughts on the future of the automotive industry? What innovations are you most excited about? 🎧 Listen to the podcast (in German) here: https://lnkd.in/eM6JSPjH #dbresearch #dboutlook #automotive #Podzept #podcast

🚘 Absatzschwäche in China, Sorgen um US-Zölle und Bangen um Arbeitsplätze – die Automobilbranche hat 2024 viele ernüchternde Schlagzeilen geschrieben. Tim Rokossa, der bei der Deutschen Bank das weltweite Auto-Research koordiniert, spricht bei Podzept über die Lage der Auto-Nation Deutschland. Bei allen aktuellen Herausforderungen sieht er für 2025 überraschende Lichtblicke und lobt die Innovationskraft der deutschen Automobilbauer: „Die Stimmung ist deutlich schlechter als die Lage", so der Analyst. Gleichzeitig macht er deutlich: "Das Hauptproblem ist derzeit der Absatz in China." Dort hat sich das Geschäft zuletzt deutlich abgeschwächt. 🎤 Im neuen Research-Podcast blickt Rokossa detailliert auf die Top-Hersteller und ihre Zukunftskonzepte. Außerdem bei Podzept: Auf was legen die Konsumenten in China wert? Was würden US-Zölle bedeuten? Wer baut die margenstarken und wo entstehen die massentauglichen Autos der Zukunft? Und schließlich: Was muss geschehen, damit das Auto-Land Deutschland neue Hoffnung schöpft und endlich die Ausfahrt aus der Krise erwischt? 🎧 Hier geht’s zum neuen Research-Podcast. https://lnkd.in/eM6JSPjH 📱 Podzept auf Ihr Smartphone laden, können Sie hier. https://lnkd.in/eDbTHD8j Deutsche Bank #dbresearch #dboutlook #automotive #Podzept #podcast

Germany is known for its political stability. There were only two other instances of a coalition break-up in recent history. Both times, Germany was facing a recession, introduced reforms, and reemerged stronger. Reforms were also implemented when German growth turned in 2003. A coalition of the SPD and Greens launched the Agenda 2010 and paved the way for the next recovery. Don’t underestimate Germany’s capacity to change. 📊 Today's chart is from Maximilian Uleer – our Head of European Equity and Cross Asset Strategy #dbresearch Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank's Steve Powers joined CNBC's "Money Movers" to talk Mondelez, high cocoa prices, and the shape of demand for food and beverages. Watch the segment here: https://lnkd.in/ehp5PKWV #DeutscheBank #dbresearch

We’re proud to announce Deutsche Bank Research’s strong performance in the 2024 Institutional Investor/Extel Global Fixed-Income Research Providers survey. Our FIC and Macro Research analysts earned top recognition across Developed Europe, the US, and Emerging Markets, securing 21 published positions. Join us in congratulating our accomplished analysts and teams and expressing gratitude to our clients for their continued support. • #1 in Global Macro Strategy and Developed Europe Cross Asset Strategy • #1 Emerging EMEA Local Markets Rates Strategy • Top 3 in European Economics and Fixed Income Strategy • Top 3 in five High Yield sectors across the US and Europe • 21 firm level rankings up from 17 • 15 individual Analysts ranked #DeutscheBank #dbresearch Pamela Finelli Feddeler, Jim Reid, Hans-Christian Wietoska, Richard Phelan, Douglas Runte, Bernd Volk, Henry Allen, Vivek Khanna, Andrew Casella, CFA, Aaron Watts

“This ECB easing cycle has further to go.” 🇪🇺 Our European economists had expected the ECB to cut rates by 25bps to 3% today, and they were right. Chief European Economist at Deutsche Bank Research, Mark Wall said: “The ECB delivered the fourth quarter-point rate cut of this easing cycle at the December meeting and the second back-to-back cut. More importantly, the door has been opened more clearly to further cuts. The ECB continued to describe current financing conditions as tight but dropped the reference to needing to keep policy sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. This combination signals an easing bias. For a market that has been pricing the chances of a sub-neutral terminal rate in 2025 today’s ECB decision will feel like an endorsement” For next year, Wall and his team expect the ECB to continue to cut by 25bps per meeting in the first half of the year, followed by quarterly 25bp cuts in the second half, leaving the deposit rate at 1.5% by end-2025. #dbresearch #ECB #ratecuts

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep the policy rate steady with a dovish tilt at the December meeting, our Chief Economist for Australia Phil O’Donaghoe has now updated his call, predicting a 25bps rate cut in February. 📢 “We now expect four 25bp rate cuts in 2025 at each of the February, May, August and November policy meetings, leaving the cash rate at 3.35% by end 2025. Previously, we expected three 25bp rate cuts in 2025, starting in May.” Phil highlighted in his recent research note. ✂ Speaking with the The Australian Financial Review following the meeting, Macro Strategist Lachlan Dynan shared that the terminal rate of 3.5% implied by the bond market was bang in middle of the RBA’s wide estimate of the neutral rate – when monetary policy is neither stimulating nor restricting economic growth. Subscribers to the AFR can read the article here: https://lnkd.in/gQJhXiye