Sebastian Hallensleben

Does Local Autonomy improve Government Effectiveness? YES: We have related the Local Autonomy Index with the Worldbank Government Effectiveness Index and interesting results have emerged. While the ‘Local Autonomy Index’ (see https://buff.ly/3W4feYF) ranges from 0 to 100, the ‘Government Effectiveness Index’ of the Worldbank (see https://buff.ly/3TX5f4z) ranges from -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance. The visualization shows: YES, in general the higher the local autonomy the better the government effectiveness. On the upper right side we see 13 out of 35 countries have a high local autonomy score, above 55, and a high government effectiveness score, above 1 (Finland, Denmark, Sweden, France, Norway, Germany, Portugal, Lithuania, Belgium, Estonia, Austria, Netherlands and Luxembourg). Countries with weaker local autonomy perform lower in government effectiveness (e.g. quality of public services, civil service, independence from political pressures, policy formulation and implementation). Interestingly enough, countries in transition and countries that were hit particularly hard by the financial crises do not correspond to this picture. Here we see a high local autonomy value (above 55) with low government effectiveness (below 1), at the same time. This suggests that local autonomy does not automatically lead to better government effectiveness. But in general, it can be stated that there is a connection between strong local autonomy and high government effectiveness. This requires further research in order to be able to better understand the connections. Thanks Sofia Calzola for the visualization. #localgovernments #localautonomy #multilevelgovernance #publicadministrationreform

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As mentioned in ACCR's latest climate science insight ( https://lnkd.in/gBjcgPvu ), the NGFS4 scenarios are scenarios that were part of the IPCC scientific assessment that have been adapted by the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), to help central banks and supervisors explore the possible impacts on the economy and the financial system, and are annually updated. There are no Paris aligned scenarios that show growth in oil or gas. One cannot argue for oil or gas growth and argue to be supporting the Paris agreement. Data: NGFS, 2024, https://lnkd.in/gg8KdNag; IEA 2023, Net Zero roadmap, https://lnkd.in/gig_aTcs. License: CC by 4.0

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3rd IFRIC submission on IAS38 asset recognition of carbon credits and intellectual capital...cat and pigeons… Our 3rd IFRIC submission on climate-related commitments was made last week and published yesterday. https://lnkd.in/ee4pPiF7 The IASB's April Agenda Decision was confusing in explaining the asset treatment (and generally)—stating: "The Committee observed that if a provision is recognised,the corresponding amount is recognised as an expense, rather than as an asset, unless it gives rise to—or forms part of the cost of—an item that qualifies for recognition as an asset in accordance with an IFRS Accounting Standard" Sorry, what? This 3rd submission is therefore designed to clear that up—based on a real world commitment and explaining that the two primary means of meeting a 2030 commitment—carbon credits and innovation—meet the definition and recognition criteria under IAS38 (Intangible Assets). This one puts a very large and quite scary cat in amongst the pigeons. Despite an initial response that this discussion may not happen in September, we're being pretty insistent that it does. Thanks to Thomas Annicq for help in making carbon credits easy to understand. Nikhil Chouguley Saurabh Jain-Punamiya Paddy Linighan Vincent Huck Peter Hislop Speers Hillary Salo Cain Blythe Richard Peers Sophie Robinson-Tillett Mike Clark Nick Spencer Eric Israël Mark Runnalls Paul W Chan Dominic Endicott Mei Lin Fung Jacob Soll Rebecca Kershaw Tessa Vincent Lee Harris Simon Mundy Sasja Beslik Clara Miller Gillian Marcelle, PhD Andrew Griffiths Mark Cliffe Sophia Leonora Mendelsohn Natalie Hollier Narayan P.S. Lingaraj Dinni Radhica Kanniganti Daniel Schmid

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New publication alert! 📚 We have released a policy paper outlining our vision for the #MarieSkłodowskaCurieActions (MSCA) in the next EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (#FP10). This publication is our response to the European Commission’s consultation on the future orientations of the #MSCA. It represents our commitment to shaping research policy while highlighting the importance of structured dialogue to develop a programme that supports a dynamic and diverse research community. 🔍 What is inside? Our recommendations aim to: ▪️ enhance the effectiveness ▪️ promote greater inclusiveness ▪️ and amplify the impact of the MSCA 🔗 Discover how we envision strengthening the MSCA: https://lnkd.in/eZzM78Ex   #research #science #EUpolicy

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Even our cursory survey shows that existing heat action plans have gaps, particularly in addressing diverse local realities. A one-size-fits-all approach won’t cut it; for example, humidity needs to incorporated into the definition of a heat emergency. The problem is, data is never perfect. Can we trust it? How do we deal with discrepancies between sources like OpenWeather and the Indian Meteorological Department? We need to recognize potential biases and conflicts of interest while using the best available evidence and being transparent about its limitations. Heat action plans must center on those most affected, offering tailored solutions that take into account factors like humidity, location, and access to resources. More in this Week's Messenger with Shashi Nagarajan Iyer and Srinivas Mangipudi.

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🔊The launch of latest version of 2025 CCPI - Climate Change Performance Index, co-authored by Germanwatch e.V., NewClimate Institute, and Climate Action Network International. 💡It assesses and compare the #climate performance of 63 countries & EU, which together account for over 90% of global GHG emissions, across four categories: Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions (40%), #RenewableEnergy (20%), #EnergyUse (20%) and #ClimatePolicy (20%). 🎙️𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 ➡️  1️⃣𝗡𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 in all categories to achieve an overall very high rating, so top 3-ranks are still vacant – no country is 𝗱𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝟭.𝟱°𝗖. 2️⃣𝗗𝗲𝗻𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸 remains the 𝘁𝗼𝗽-𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆 but falls short of an overall very high rating. 3️⃣𝗥𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 in almost every high-emitting country. However, too many countries are still clinging to prolonging the fossil fuels business model, especially for natural gas. 4️⃣While 61 of 64 countries have increased the share of renewables in their energy mix, emission trends in 29 countries are still rated low or very low. 5️⃣G20-performance ⏭️ 🔴𝗨.𝗞. (6th) & 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 (10th) are 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗚𝟮𝟬 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗴 ‘𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀’ in CCPI 2025. Fourteen G20 countries receive a low or very low. The G20 is particularly responsible for climate mitigation, as its members account for over 75% of world’s GHG emissions. 🟠U.K. jumps up to 6, due to coal phase-out & government’s pledge against new licences for fossil fuel projects. 🟡𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗞𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗮 (63rd), 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 (64th), & 𝗦𝗮𝘂𝗱𝗶 𝗔𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗮 (66th) remain in 𝗚𝟮𝟬’𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝘁-𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, with an overall very low rating. 6️⃣EU performance ⏭️ 🟢The 𝗘𝗨 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁, to 17th & has an overall medium ranking. 🔵Sixteen EU countries are among high & medium performers, with 𝗗𝗲𝗻𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸 (4th) & 𝗡𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 (5th) leading the overall ranking. Poland improves to 47th owing to an improved Climate Policy performance. Finland, however, plunges 11 spots to 37th, mainly due to its poorer showing in Climate Policy. 🟣Unlike in previous editions, 𝗻𝗼 𝗘𝗨 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 - 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 (𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁). Bulgaria, at 50th, is worst performing EU country. 7️⃣𝗔𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗮 (59th), shows how a change of government can cause a step change in the wrong direction 8️⃣The 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁-𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 are Iran (67th), Saudi Arabia (66th), UAE (65th) & Russia (64th). 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘀. 🔗 https://ccpi.org/ 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗟𝗼𝘃𝗲 & 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗲 💙 👋 ! #ParisAgreement #ClimateAction #FossilFuels #NaturalGas #Renewables #GHGEmissions #GreenhouseGases #ClimateChange #ClimateAnalytica

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This beginner’s guide to the EU ETS aims to build knowledge and understanding of the European Union’s carbon market for civil society organisations who have little or no prior experience with EU climate policies, including in countries neighbouring the EU. It provides introductory knowledge on how the EU ETS is designed and how it functions. Increased awareness should ultimately empower civil society to get involved in the ETS process and advocate for an effective and fair European carbon market.

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How are #CCU technologies framed in the German-speaking #media discourse? Our paper where we conducted a #framing analysis on German-speaking print and online media is finally out. Many thanks to my former colleagues from Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS) Till Strunge and Sonja Thielges for the great team work conducting this #interdisciplinary analysis. We are also thankful to CO2WIN Connect for the funding and for fostering #transdisciplinary research on #decarbonization technologies. For a successful sustainable transition we need technological as well as political and social feasibility.

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Fiscal Decentralisation and Local Autonomy Is there a relation between the degree of fiscal decentralisation and the degree of local autonomy in European countries? Does higher fiscal decentralisation lead to higher local autonomy? We have related the Local Autonomy Index (see https://buff.ly/3TXtgbI with ranges from 0 to 100) to the share of subnational government expenditure in general government expenditure (see The Council of European Municipalities and Regions ‘Local Finances and The Green Transition’ (https://buff.ly/49FtFFx) and the following results have emerged. The rising line indicates a correlation between the fiscal decentralisation and the local autonomy. However, on the upper left side (green area) we see 13 out of 38 countries with a high local autonomy score (above 55) and a low share (below 30%) of subnational government expenditure in general government expenditure (or a low degree of fiscal decentralisation: (Greece, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Italy, Estonia, Lithuania, Serbia, Slovakia, Portugal, France). This suggests that fiscal decentralisation seems not to be the unique significant driver for local autonomy. To sum up –> we see the importance of fiscal decentralisation for local autonomy, but we can also see a minor correlation of fiscal decentralisation on the local autonomy. #localfgovernment #localfinances #multilevelgovernance #publicadministrationreform

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The best definition of Quantitative Storytelling: "a process of making quality tests of the narratives that underlie or justify key policy positions. The qualities of the policy narratives assessed are their feasibility (within biophysical limits), viability (within the existing institutional context) and desirability (reflecting distributional and acceptability issues); using uses reformulations of existing statistical datasets and simple empirical transformations. The analysis is framed using a societal metabolism metaphor. That is, it focuses on the funds of land and human time needed to create the flows of materials, energy and money that reproduce and maintain the identity of the system of interest (e.g. current patterns and trajectories of consumption). The analysis is conducted simultaneously across scales (geographical or classificatory) to highlight key externalization effects and dependencies that may undermine long-term security." Mario Giampietro and colleagues We need more systems thinking in #geospatial... https://lnkd.in/gKc9Nths

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The European Commission has just published an updated CBAM Questions & Answers document. If you are in any doubt that the EU is serious about requiring actual emissions data for this quarter, take a look at the response to Question 74. It makes it clear that it will not be enough for EU importers to have tried to obtain the data from their supply chain - “they should prove they have taken all reasonable efforts”. That means providing justications with their return, including supporting documents. Doesn’t sound like the Commission has any intention of backing off on its October requirement to submit actual emissions data. Also hearing that Dutch authorities are taking a harder line, to the extent of guidance suggesting importers unable to obtain emissions data should consider switching to an alternative supplier that is able to provide it. It really is time to take CBAM seriously. https://lnkd.in/eDH9sRD4 #cbam

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From the European Commission's Joint Research Center Publications Repository: "The contribution of Third Country Nationals to the twin transition in the EU." TCNs have been pivotal in addressing skills gaps in the EU's twin transition over the past decade. In digital occupations, a growing number of highly- educated TCNs have moved to Europe for education or jobs, while TCNs have filled green occupation gaps with diverse backgrounds and education levels. To address future skills gaps, the EU must implement supportive policies and programs to maximize potential. Read/download the full report here: https://gs4s.eu/news/ #TwinTransition #thirdcountrynationals #greenjobs #digitalization #ClimateAction #EcoInnovation #SustainableFuture #CircularEconomy

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🔔 🔎 Check out NEW CAKE #LIFEVIIEW2050 analysis: "Linking #EUETS with other carbon pricing mechanisms”: ➡ Full report: https://lnkd.in/dXshWyEP 🎯 CAKE report examines the implications of #EUETS linking with other ETS frameworks, the introduction of the #CBAM, the role of #offsets in reducing compliance costs, and the potential establishment of a European Central Carbon Bank (#ECCB). Through macroeconomic analysis, the report assesses how this integration could affect #carbonpricing, #emissions reductions and economic indicators in different regions. Presented measures aim to improve market stability, mitigate #carbonleakage, foster international cooperation, and ensure a cost-effective path toward achieving #climateneutrality by 2050.    🌍 Here are key takeaways: 1️⃣ #CBAM & #ETS linking can protect EU industries from competitive disadvantages, reducing the risk of #carbonleakage & facilitate cost-effective emissions reductions. CBAM encourages EU trading partners to invest in low-emission technologies & need adequate protection for exporters. 2️⃣ Linking ETSs across regions can create larger, more efficient carbon markets, reducing compliance costs while fostering technology transfer. EU carbon prices could drop by €40–60 boosting industrial competitiveness. The EU would likely import allowances from regions like China, creating a more dynamic market. By 2050, the global welfare gains from ETS linking could reach €40 B, with EU GDP increasing by 0,2-0,3% (~€50B) and sectoral output rising by 2-4%. 3️⃣ Offsets can reduce complinace cost and benefiting industries with limited decarbonization options. EU GDP could rise by 0,15-0,2% (€30-45B/year), while slight consumption increases are expected for both the EU and Global South. 4️⃣ European Central Carbon Bank (#ECCB) could enhance market stability & supports the EU's climate goals by managing carbon allowances, offsets, removals & purchasing offsets generated under Art. 6 of Paris Agreement. 5️⃣ There is a need for #EUETS reform. As the EU pushes for more ambitious climate policies, #EUETS faces challenges like price volatility, competitiveness concerns & complexity of including new sectors. Proposed solutions, such as ETS linking, offsets and ECCB can mitigate risks, stabilize the market, and ensure the system’s effectiveness in driving emissions reductions. #LIFEProgramme #LIFEProjects #NFOŚiGW The National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE) Centrum Analiz Klimatyczno-Energetycznych (CAKE) / Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis #KOBIZE #IOŚPIB Jakub Boratyński, Marta Rosłaniec, Maciej Pyrka, Robert Jeszke, Marzena Chodor, Izabela Zborowska, Sebastian Lizak, Grzegorz Gmyrek, Katarzyna Mazanek, Marek A., Izabela Lewarska, Aneta Tylka, Michał Lewarski, Zuzanna Różańska, Antonio Soria Ramirez, Karsten Neuhoff, Artur Runge-Metzger, Simone Borghesi, Stefano F. Verde, Wojciech Burkiewicz, Jos Delbeke

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🚀 We are overlooking the social impacts of Carbon Capture. How can we correct the course? 🚀 Last week, I spoke at the CAPTUS Project dissemination workshop, highlighting the need to assess the often-overlooked social impacts of carbon capture and utilization (#CCU). Can CCU truly help us reduce Europe's greenhouse gas emissions if we don't address its social dimensions? Here are some key workshop takeaways: 🌍 The Importance of CCU: - CCU technologies can transform captured CO2 into valuable products, benefiting both the environment and the economy. - Success in decarbonizing requires open communication and collaboration between all stakeholders. 🛠️ Challenges and Innovations: - Integrating CCU into industrial processes is challenging, but there are innovative solutions on the horizon. - Projects like Captus and Synergens show CCU’s feasibility and help drive the push towards net-zero goals. During my talk, I highlighted three main issues: 1️⃣ Lack of Data   - There's a significant gap in data on the social acceptance of CCU, especially regarding safety.   - Perceptions of CO2 storage from different sources vary, highlighting the need to address specific concerns and misconceptions. 2️⃣ Lack of Transparency, Accountability, and Dialogue   - Historical skepticism towards new technologies demands honest communication about CCU's risks and benefits.   - Active community participation is crucial, respecting local knowledge and rights.   - Tailoring communication to local cultures and contexts is essential for gaining support.   - Effective safety measures are necessary to prevent environmental risks.  - Communities prefer honest discussions about risks over false assurances. 3️⃣ Economic Burden and Fairness Challenges   - High costs of CCU could increase energy prices, impacting disadvantaged communities the most.   - A systematic approach targeting sectors where CCU can have the most impact is often missing. 💬 What we need is comprehensive approaches that see social aspects as opportunities, not insuperable challenges or terryfing risks. In short, we need Community Engagement: - Engaging communities and addressing their concerns with transparency is crucial. - Policies, workforce training, and cooperative business models are key to overcoming social and economic hurdles. 👉 For those interested in learning more, rewatch the webinar recording https://lnkd.in/gntAYrKT Any thoughts? 💚🌱 #EnergyCarriers #CarbonCapture #IndustrialCarbonEmission #SustainableDevelopment #RenewableEnergy #GreenTechnology #JustTransition #EnergyPoverty Dušan Jakovljević Irene Paoletti Monique Bernardes Figueirêdo

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Timely + excellent piece on the need for #politicaltech / "political technology" + greater experimentation in the space. Over 60 countries will go the polls in 2024, and IMHO, the urgency of some global issues - and what Thomas Hale calls #longproblems like #climatechange - call for greater #democratization and analysis of #voice. This piece does a wonderful job of unpackaging #longproblems conceptually, but the specific #tech suggested isn't crystal clear.-- What is clear is the need for #institutions squarely focused on decision making in light of the #longterm - those #stakeholders who we cannot yet see or feel / future gens. Additionally, 'Anne-Marie Slaughter, the chief executive of the think tank New America who was Hale’s adviser on his doctorate at Princeton, shared a byline with Hale and two of his Oxford colleagues on a policy brief, “Toward a Declaration on Future Generations,” that recommends the U.N. appoint “a special envoy or high commissioner” to be a voice for the future . . . I kind of prefer “#envoy” because it sounds like the person has literally come from the #future.'— Peter Coy. https://lnkd.in/gQ-DDXUC #voiceofthefuture Peter Coy | The New York Times Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford IPCC #institutions #societaltransformation #democracy #futures #risk #scenarioanalysis #politicalinnovation #socialinnovation #regulatoryinnovation #policy #netzero #policymaking #climate #politicalwill #government #globalgovernance

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