Kay Brinkmann

Berlin tames its bear back into the family of European nation-states with independent defense capabilities. Die WELT (Kristian Frigelj) reports how the Federal Minister of Defense is working on various models to increase the number of personnel in the Bundeswehr. There are three options to choose from for a return to military service. Option one provides for voluntary military service, in which all citizens from the age of 18 are sent information, fill out an online questionnaire if interested and can take advantage of voluntary counseling. Option two is a selective military service with an obligation for men to fill out the questionnaire and possibly be mustered, while there is still voluntariness for women. The third option is considered the most far-reaching model, because the online questionnaire would be equally mandatory for men and women aged 18 and over. While the left-wing coalition government is hosting Eurojackpot, for instance the FDP parliamentary group rejecting compulsory service or military service, the opposition AfD group has a clear-cut recipe: "Option two is currently the best choice. It can be implemented quickly by the legislator and ties in with the familiar system. Option three could be prepared and finally implemented in parallel. Conscription for all must be seriously discussed," said defence policy spokesman Rüdiger Lucassen. For his parliamentary group, it is clear that conscription can only take place "in the German interest". According to the AfD, this means "not sending troops to Ukraine, neither today nor in the future," Lucassen said. Well, the fact remains that Bundeswehr has faced years of deprivation on their home soil. While the approval ratings for Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and his left-wing coalition government are sinking in a spiraling way, it seems to oppose defense related spending, including the compulsory conscription. The peacetime scale of at least 230,000 German soldiers is appropriate and realistic. In addition, a reserve of at least 100,000 men integrated into the active troops is needed, half of which is a permanent reserve unit with compulsory military service. For Germany, a mixture of "option two and option three" type of conscription is necessary. And there is lot to be learned from the old ally in up North, namely Finland - in the area of compulsory military service and how to secure the vital functions of society, keeping them apart from ever fluctuating internal politics and and ideologically loaded devaluations, some severe consequences.  #germany #europeandefense #afd #fdp #spd #bundeswehr #berlin #finland Check out the WELT report:

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The nations in the Area of Operation of Multinational Corps Northeast, including Germany, share a significant land border with Russia and Belarus. This geostrategic reality exposes us all to the potential threat of Russian aggression. The sense of urgency in these nations is palpable. In Germany, this sense of urgency, while not as acute, has been growing since the unlawful Russian invasion of Ukraine. This shift in our strategic environment, which in Germany is referred to as 'Zeitenwende', did not begin in 2022 but at least in 2014 with the also unlawful occupation of Crimea. Some argue it started even earlier. Together with their NATO comrades in our AOO, Bundeswehr soldiers are part of the first line of defence. For me, it is clear: Our freedom is under attack. At Multinational Corps Northeast, it is our task to ensure that our freedom will not be compromised. We will defend every inch of the territory of NATO Allies. Our readiness is a crucial precondition for success. However, it comes at a cost. Over the past decades, our defence budget, not just in Germany, has seen a decline. Now, we must invest a substantial amount of money to address the gaps and shortages we have inadvertently created. Gratefully our government has initiated the turn around. This investment is not a luxury, but a necessity. While there may be competing priorities, I firmly believe that our security is a zero-sum game. Every Euro not invested in defence heightens our vulnerability and diminishes our security. Yet, security is the bedrock of our daily lives in freedom and our ability to confront the challenges of tomorrow. For "The European," I was asked to share my thoughts on how stable our defence in the Northeastern flank really is. My answer is a question: How much vulnerability do we as a society allow as an open flank towards the enemy? As General Officers of the Bundeswehr, we bear a significant responsibility in answering this question. Over the past decades, we have witnessed a shrinking defence budget, with the belief that only 'out-of-area' operations would shape our future and that less would be more flexible. This was a miscalculation, and we are now facing the consequences. We are tasked with the challenging balancing act between international crisis management and deterrence and defence. At the same time, defence is a task for the whole society. Everybody has to lean in. Because ultimately, every threat is as massive as the vulnerability we allow ourselves. Please find hereby the Link to my article (in German). I'm looking forward to your opinion and will listen to your thoughts. https://lnkd.in/egRzP7a3

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Germany inaugurates Baltic Sea naval HQ amid rising tensions with Moscow - Germany inaugurated on Monday a new multinational naval headquarters for the Baltic Sea capable of leading operations for NATO during a conflict, as the military alliance increases focus on the area amid rising tensions with Russia. - NATO must ensure the sea routes remain open since they might constitute the only supply line to the Baltic states should the narrow overland corridor linking them to Poland, and thus the rest of NATO territory in Europe, be blocked in any conflict with Russia.  - Only two roads and one railroad line run through the 65 km wide corridor — the Suwalki Gap — that is squeezed between the heavily armed Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west and Belarus to the east.  - Owning the biggest navy in the region, Germany has been concerned by Moscow's presence in the Baltic Sea for a while. After Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Berlin forged an alliance of the western navies bordering the Baltic Sea.  - The new headquarters, with around 120 German and up to 60 international staff in peacetime, will be led by a German admiral with a Polish deputy and a Swedish chief of staff.  - Eleven nations have deployed personnel there — Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Britain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. - https://lnkd.in/em8cYW4f

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There have been significant historical confrontations along the East-West border regions, with the City of Narva standing out as an epic battle zone. From Sweden's conquest in 1581 to World War II clashes, Narva's strategic importance has been undeniable. Recent developments, like Russia's maritime border changes and provocations on Estonia's border, highlight ongoing tensions in the region. 🚨 On 21st May 2024, Russian authorities decided unilaterally to change the country’s maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea, according to a draft government decree published on the legal acts portal. The document, prepared by the Russian Defense Ministry, says that Russia intends to declare part of the waters in the eastern Gulf of Finland and territory in the Kaliningrad region as its internal waters. 🚨 Estonia is repeatedly subjected to provocations on its border with Russia. In May, about twenty buoys disappeared from the Narva River, which marks the eastern external border of the NATO and Russia. In February 2024, Estonian security authorities arrested ten people who were said to have planned sabotage on behalf of Russia. 🚨 Russian security services have detained an alarming number of foreigners and Russian nationals on allegations of working with foreign intelligence since launching its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 🚨 Latvia and Lithuania have also suffered from migratory flows along the Belarusian border for years. Both countries declared a state of emergency in the border area and responded to illegal entries with illegal pushbacks. 🚨 Poland is a permanent target of Russian hybrid attacks. Almost every month, various flying objects from Russia and Belarus violate Polish airspace - spy balloons or Russian missiles. In recent weeks, large forest fires have increased in Poland. Among other things, one of Warsaw's largest department stores was destroyed. Here, too, it is said that there are traces of Russia. 🚨 So what next? Russia could use as a pretext to deploy troops to the NATO´s border region via its Zapad 2024 exercise involving 50,000 troops in western Russia and Belarus. Border conflicts" and "unrests " are possible in the "Suwalki corridor" between Belarus and Kaliningrad along the Polish-Lithuanian border and of course, nearby Narva which recalls in the context as a historic, nor not very stable, borderline between East and West. 🚨 If Russia is let to defeat Ukraine, both the NATO and the EU will face tremendous challenges in defending its northeastern partners. The Russians would impress hundreds of thousands Ukrainians into military service, significantly increasing Russia’s military and economic potential. The West has no time to waste - and there is not much time left - at least, if warnings about Russia's imperialist ambitions are taken seriously. Check out NZZ timely report by Linda Koponen: #narva #eastwestwar #russianwar #balticcountries

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The German-French arms company KNDS has more than doubled its order numbers and is thus recording significant growth. This is also a signal to the armaments giant Rheinmetall. The two companies are more than just bitter competitors as covered by Die WELT. At KNDS, order intake increased by a massive 130 percent or 7.8 billion euros to 15.7 billion euros in 2023 while Rheinmetall recorded a slower pace of growth with an increase in orders of 44 percent. The major European defense stocks have continued to rise significantly on the stock market, for example around 40 percent in Rheinmetall or around 20 percent in Leonardo (Italy) and BAE Systems (UK). Rheinmetall is expanding its capacity throughout Europe, focusing on the needs of the Bundeswehr and even establishing a joint venture in Ukraine and taking care of increasing demand in the Baltic countries. So perhaps, despite the European-chaos-as-usual, we are finally proceeding towards systematic collective European level public-private financing of the defense industry. And would it be more pro-active for the EU block to focus on enhancing the effectiveness of the European defense industry finances and alliances instead of competing against each other and risking foreign competitors infiltrating critical internal defense markets? #rheinmetall #defenceindustry #KNDS #europeandefence #baesystems Check out Die WELT report (Gerhard Hegmann): https://lnkd.in/dVjwzNyM

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The German arms industry experiences a significant shift with the introduction of a 100 billion euro special fund for Bundeswehr restructuring. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "Zeitenwende" speech on 22 February, 2022, marked the beginning. The fact remains that Bundeswehr has faced years of deprivation on their home soil. Some permanent change coming? By the parliamentary summer recess, 42 of these bills with a total volume of almost 27 billion euros had already been approved by the budget committee. Among other things, the German government has concluded a framework contract with Rheinmetall for artillery ammunition worth 8.5 billion euros. Over a period of about ten years, the Düsseldorf-based armaments company will deliver around two million artillery shells with a caliber of 155 millimeters to Germany. In addition, there is an order for 6,500 military trucks worth 3.5 billion euros, the delivery of 123 vehicles of the type "heavy weapon carriers infantry" worth 2.7 billion euros and a development contract for air defense as part of the air defense system for short-range and close-range protection (NNbS) for defense against drones worth 607 million euros. The sensor and radar specialist Hensoldt is also setting records. At the end of the first half of 2024, the order backlog was around 6.5 billion euros. The German-French arms company KNDS also benefits from the special fund. The German government has ordered 105 Leopard 2 tanks from KNDS for around three billion euros. At KNDS, order intake increased by a massive 130 percent or 7.8 billion euros to 15.7 billion euros in 2023 while Rheinmetall recorded a slower pace of growth with an increase in orders of 44 percent. Chancellor Scholz has advertised that the regular defence budget from 2028, when the special fund will be used up, must comprise 80 billion euros. In the current year, it is around 52 billion euros, so where the money will come from? And while Pistorius has demaded 6.5 billion euros more for the defense budget for the coming year, he is receiving under 1.3 billion euros. The first ever European Defense Industry Strategy (EDIS) outlines the challenges currently faced by the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) to create an EU market for defense with an immediate need for a 100 billion euro fund to boost overall defense cooperation. The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) was recently presented by the EC as the new legislative initiative. Moreover, Europe aims to increase its arms production by 2027. EU member states should set themselves the goal of spending at least 50 percent of the funds planned for arms procurement in the European internal market by 2030. Well, have we heard "die Gebrüder Grimm" before? Check out the first ever defence industrial strategy and a new defence industry programme: https://lnkd.in/g9BncnS3 Check out the Handelsblatt coverage: https://lnkd.in/d2jJDPay #germany #europeandefense #bundeswehr #rheinmetall #knds

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As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary with a summit in Washington this week, the alliance is facing some familiar foes and challenges: Russia’s war on Ukraine is ongoing, Moscow’s alliances with China, North Korea and Iran are strong, and the military coalition’s defense spending remains a perennial bugbear among members. Another familiar, yet unpredictable, challenge lies ahead: the possibility of another U.S. administration led by former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump. Trump had a tense and combative relationship with the military alliance during his last term in office over 2017-2021, lambasting various member states for not honoring their 2014 commitment to spend 2% of their national gross domestic profit on defense spending. While campaigning to return to office in the forthcoming presidential election, Trump rattled NATO members again in February, when he said he would not provide military protection to any member state that had not met its financial obligations to the bloc and would even “encourage” adversaries “to do whatever the hell they want” to that nation. The comments provoked outrage in the White House, which at the time described them as “appalling and unhinged.” Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “any suggestion that we are not there to protect and defend all Allies will undermine the security of all of us and put at risk our soldiers, our personnel who are on the front lines to protect the whole Alliance.” “One for all, all for one applies for all Allies and is the heart of NATO,” Stoltenberg told reporters in February, referencing NATO’s Article 5 clause that member states must come to each other’s mutual defense. As the NATO summit takes place in Washington this week, member states are presenting a united front on the 75th anniversary of the defense pact, with leaders keen to emphasize their ongoing support for nonmember Ukraine by unveiling new military aid and a pledge to strengthen the country’s beleaguered air defenses. Leaders are also seen as wanting to “Trump-proof” military aid for Ukraine ahead of Trump’s possible reelection, given that the Republican front-runner has been ambivalent on the subject of ongoing aid for Ukraine. While incumbent President Joe Biden’s support for Ukraine is solid — with the president reiterating his commitment to Kyiv’s fight as he addressed delegates Tuesday — his reelection is looking shaky, amid concerns over his fitness for office. Analysts at Eurasia Group said they expected NATO leaders to take steps to ring-fence the coordination of the coalition’s aid spending for Ukraine, in a bid to protect it from a possible future Trump administration.

On multiple occasions, former #ISIS fighters have been recruited by the FSB’s 2nd Service (Service for the Protection of the Constitutional Order and Combating #Terrorism) to penetrate Ukraine’s #military circles and to conduct #sabotage #operations in #Europe. One of such operatives is an ex-Syrian fighter Baurzhan Kultanov (Muhammad Usmanov by forged #Russian documents) who had served a four-year prison sentence out of a maximum of 20 years in exchange for agreeing to work for the #FSB. On the pretext that Kultanov is a real #terrorist and a Muslim who did time in Russia and potentially hates Russians and especially FSB, FSB wanted Kultanov to be a double or even triple agent so that other special services would want to recruit him. Initially Kultanov was prepared to be sent to Ukraine to target the head of a volunteer battalion fighting on the side of Ukraine since 2014 that has Crimean Tatars and Chechens in its ranks. However, the plan changed, and he was sent to #Turkey instead. Thus, rather than eliminating Salafi-jihadists, FSB is pushing them to “emigrate” and offering to help zealots to serve their holy cause-just not in Russia. At the same time, Russian #intelligence agencies, via social media and channels linked to far-right groups in Europe are recruiting individuals for disruptive operations in European countries. Such operations might include arson and vandalism designed to create fear and destabilize various sectors of society or even #espionage and contract killings. Money is a primary motivator in recruiting saboteurs and cybercriminals and the goal of these attacks is to spread panic and disrupt the normal functioning of critical infrastructure. Russians made up a significant portion of ISIS militants, giving the #Kremlin a recruitment base to draw from for operations in Europe. There is growing concern over the use of forged documents to facilitate the movement of these individuals abroad. While not completely falsified, these documents may have been altered following their issuance for educational enrolment or work contracts in Russia, making them difficult to assess at #EU border crossings. There is evidence to suggest these agents are forming sleeper cells across Europe. What stands out is that the FSB is spearheading these operations, which typically fall under the purview of Russian military intelligence. This suggests that the FSB has cultivated this recruitment base and is using compromising information to facilitate their enlistment, as Lubyanka (FSB headquarters) was involved in placing these individuals into terrorist organizations under the guise of #counterterrorism efforts in Russia, thus creating links to foreign terror networks. It is also possible that these Russian intelligence operations require more extensive use of overseas assets, including individuals within the Russian diaspora. #Omega #Consulting #Group #PMC #OSINT #private #military

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Ukrainian ARMY Are Stopping the Russian Advances Seizing More Settlements While receiving support of Ukrainian AIR FORCE with the Russian Air Attacks mainly with Glide Aerial Bombs in Five Regions and Also Drones & Missiles Partial Report Sept 28 Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of September 28 Sun, September 29, 2024 - 00:30 Over the past day, 136 combat engagements occurred along the front lines. The situation in the Pokrovsk direction remains tense, with Russian forces concentrating their main offensive efforts there. Additionally, Russian troops launched active assaults in the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Vremivka directions, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine In the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attempted to storm Ukrainian positions near Tykhe. According to current reports, Russian forces suffered losses of 45 killed and wounded, and one armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, and a piece of specialized equipment were destroyed. Ukrainian troops also damaged a tank, two artillery systems, and three vehicles In the Kupiansk direction, Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions 14 times. Near Synkivka, Lozova, and Tabaivka, Ukrainian troops repelled 11 attacks. Three engagements near Stelmakhivka and Vyshneve are ongoing In the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked Ukrainian defenders 22 times today in the areas of six different settlements. Two engagements near Nevske are still underway In the Siversk direction, Russians made five attempts to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from their positions near Verkhniokamianske and Vyimka. The battles are ongoing In the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled eight attempts by Russian forces to advance near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, and Kurdiumivka. Two engagements near Chasiv Yar continue, .. In the Toretsk direction, Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions seven times, with five engagements already concluded. Battles are ongoing near Toretsk and Nelipivka In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are primarily focusing their efforts. Over the day, Russians launched 34 attacks on Ukrainian positions. More than half of all engagements occurred near Selydove, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, and Marynivka, with five engagements still in progress In the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops attempted to advance eight times, with two attacks still ongoing.. In the Vremivka direction, the situation is challenging, where today Russians launched 15 assaults on the front line of Ukraine's defense near Vuhledar, Vodiane, and Katerynivka. Currently, eight engagements are ongoing .. In the Kursk direction, Ukraine's Defense Forces continue operations. Meanwhile, Russia claims to have completely encircled Vuhledar. The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine assures that Russia's claims are false https://lnkd.in/ge4bbfaF

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The Ukrainian operation in Kursk is almost into its third week. How might Russia respond in the coming days and weeks, and what are its medium and long term options for dealing with the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory? My latest at Futura Doctrina. #Ukraine #strategy #military #leadership #adaptation https://lnkd.in/gS2XkDaY

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Stefanie Dr. Babst answer to Judy Dempsey. Vote for enhanced support within conceptual frame of „coalitions of the willing“. „Boots on the ground“ - no matter of mission, scope and size in Ukraine - would define a strategic shift in Western resolve against terrorist Russia and lift the STRATCOM cover of „strategic ambiguity“. At the same time the rules based order faces the existential threat of the raging highly complex „irregular warfare“, below the level of kinetic battle Allies wish to avoid by the mantra „we are not at war with Russia“. The terminology „hybrid threat“ does not reveal the war type reality today which calls for requirements and capabilities in multiple ways. Stakeholders notably in Europe should digest ways and means for effects based approaches in order to cope with challenges jeopardizing democracies. Dr. Olga R. Chiriac Irregular Warfare Initiative Simultaneity dilemma? (one cannot have the cake and eat the cake…) There is no way to escape the dialectic strategic shitholes of messy warfighting against the terrorist Russian regime. „Force A“ in the frame of a „coalition of the willing“ runs the risk of becoming target in the kinetic battle and war zone. The decision to take that tricky path does not imply any relief for the bulk of all forces which are opted out by their nations. „Force B“, bulk outside the coalitions, behind the fence of NATO, not at war with Russia, are opted out of war… BUT will face all facets of ongoing hybrid attacks launched through highly intensified irregular warfare notably in Europe. That warfare is dominated by retaliation. Meaning: this is not about „us and them“! This is not a matter of choices a la carte! So what is at stake? 1) unanimously support the strategic goal: „Ukraine must win this war“. 2) Western center of gravity, I.e. COHESION of the Alliance. Any decision of some Allies to go ahead with forces („boots on the ground“) requires the full back up, support, awareness, readiness, resilience and responsiveness of all others. There is no exclusive comfort zone for those who would like to stay put and watch. Courage, resilience, stamina, patience. Victory at all costs! 🇺🇦 Peter B. Bartram Albert Klamt NATO Ihor Baranetskyi, Ph.D. Grant Shapps Bundesministerium der Verteidigung Bundeswehr (German Federal Armed Forces) Tony Sztypuljak Nikki Searancke Dr. Olga R. Chiriac Sibylle D. Serap Güler Johann Wadephul European Leadership Network (ELN) Carnegie Europe Ben Hodges

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CHINA & RUSSIA DEFENSE INDUSTRY - Behind the Scenes: China’s Increasing Role in Russia’s Defense Industry - While China may not want to upend ties with Europe and the United States, it seeks to ensure that Russia remains a stable strategic partner. Providing Russia with dual-use components rather than finished weapons has allowed China to provide support for Russia while claiming plausible deniability. - Publicly available customs data indicate that every month, China is exporting over $300 million worth of dual-use products identified by the United States, the European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom as “high priority” items necessary for Russia’s weapons production (Figure 1). While monthly transactions have declined from a peak of over $600 million in December 2023, China remains Russia’s largest supplier of these controlled products. https://lnkd.in/eH9jAsvB

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NATO Summits: Looking ahead from Washington to The Hague Dick Zandee Roman de Baedts 03 Sep 2024 The July 2024 NATO Summit in Washington DC confirmed that the Alliance is ‘back to the future’. Upon its 75th anniversary NATO took important decisions to further strengthen its political-military power in response to a variety of security challenges, in particular to the threat posed by Russia. Increased defence spending is starting to deliver results in improving the military capabilities of European Allies. NATO’s partnerships with the EU and with countries in the Pacific have been reinforced. Yet, dark clouds are hanging above the Alliance on its way from Washington to its next Summit in The Hague (June 2025). First and foremost, the US presidential elections on 5 November cast a shadow over the transatlantic cooperation, or even worse, may result in a category 5 hurricane for NATO if Donald Trump re-enters the White House. American military support for Ukraine could stop completely, increasing the pressure on European Allies to do more, or to end their ‘whatever it takes’ rhetoric. To ensure the US contribution to NATO, European Allies will need to step up their defence efforts, even under Democratic President Kamala Harris. The American focus on the Indo-Pacific/China is raising questions about the European role and contribution to the Alliance as well as to the Asia-Pacific region. This policy brief will address these major issues for the Alliance on the road from Washington to The Hague.

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A concerning development in Yemen with the Kremlin providing more direct assistance to the Houthis https://lnkd.in/ekrqE_a2

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My regular update on conflict & confrontation in #Ukraine, the Middle East & the Pacific, accompanied by recommended readings on modern war, has just been posted. It also includes updates on Ukraine's latest strike on Russian gas platforms off #Crimea. https://lnkd.in/gnYQbTzd

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A Questionable Military Alliance: True Intentions Behind Putin's Visit to North Korea and Partnership Agreement On June 19, Vladimir Putin signed a #partnershipagreement with North Korea during his visit to Pyongyang. This visit has sparked speculation about the nature of this newfound alliance. While North Korean leader Kim Jong-un described the agreement as an "alliance," Putin's more reserved approach raises questions about the true intentions. The agreement, commits both nations to mutual defense assistance. However, there is skepticism regarding the extent of Russia's military commitment to North Korea. Russian relations with North Korea have been rather cold, with Putin's last visit to North Korea almost 24 years ago. This reticence is noteworthy in recent struggles to maintain regional power status. Russia's inability to defend Armenia in 2023, despite their official alliance through CSTO, underscores Moscow's weakening influence. This failure diminishes the credibility of any new security commitments Russia might make. Moreover, the Russian-North Korean border is a mere 17 km long (of 22,407 km land border). The lack of a road connection, with only one railway bridge over the Tumen River, diminishes the practical implications of such an alliance. The Real Motive: Economic Necessity and Workforce Augmentation While the agreement could symbolize a post-Cold War pinnacle in Russia-North Korea relations, the true intent may lie in economic cooperation. As Russia faces a severe labor shortage due to its ongoing war with Ukraine, the partnership offers a potential solution. Russia's conflict has reportedly cost it over 400,000 men in just the first two years of conflict. The true number of overall losses, including those permanently disabled or suffering from PTSD, remains unknown. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled the country to avoid mobilization. Demographic challenges exacerbate this issue, with estimates indicating an annual loss of 400,000 to 500,000 people from the workforce. Before the Ukraine war, Russia could rely on migrants from post-Soviet republics. Now, with the growing need for labor #Russia may face, a lack of manpower. This is reflected by record low unemployment rate (2.6%). All the above positions #NorthKorea as an attractive source of cheap labor. The agreement could facilitate the deployment of workers to Russia, providing a much-needed boost to its war-depleted workforce. In return, North Korea would receive funds that could help sustain its regime, with workers converting their wages in rubles to dollars or euros and sending hard currency to North Korea. While the new partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea could represent a significant shift in #postColdWar geopolitics, the motivations appear to be more propaganda and economically driven.

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