Frank Schauff

29 Apr 13:50: Germany 🇩🇪 tallies risks as it weighs Rosneft refinery seizure: politico.eu: Me: ‘The answer seems all too predictable. They will likely bow to Russia. If Scholz gets his likely way. And will keep their Taurus missiles hidden from those pesky Ukrainians. Please read the article to form your own views. Comments welcomed. This article helps to indicate how Germany is glued to Russia. Rosneft Gazprom own the majority of German gas and oil industry … is what I’m being told. Would be grateful to others in the know to explain. In detail, please. It’s likely one of the reasons why Germany did not want to help Ukraine in early 2022. They were waiting for Russia to take over Kiev. Now, under pressure, they 🇩🇪 are changing their stance. But will they?’:

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UADUT | Ukrainian Dual-Use Technology Cluster has concluded a Memorandum of Cooperation with the Association “Metaverse Ukraine”. On the further integration of innovative technologies into various spheres of public life of Ukraine, in particular education, construction, medicine and territorial development, etc. The main goal of the memorandum: Development of the technological and innovative capacity of Ukraine by supporting institutions, entrepreneurial and scientific initiatives aimed at the implementation of advanced technologies. Particular attention is paid to the use of immersive technologies (AR/VR), as well as the capabilities of Metaverse for the transformation of key sectors of the economy and public life. Development of strategic directions: 1. Education: • Introduction of Metaverse technologies to create interactive and immersive educational environments. This will increase student engagement, improve access to modern knowledge and ensure the integration of global educational platforms. • Creation of virtual training centers that will allow conducting laboratory experiments, simulations and trainings without physical limitations. 2. Construction: • Use of immersive technologies for modeling and management of construction processes. This includes virtual mock-ups of objects, interactive planning of urban infrastructure and optimization of resources. • Implementation of augmented reality technologies to improve the repair, reconstruction and urban planning process. 3. Medicine: • Use of VR/AR in diagnostics, surgical simulations and rehabilitation of patients. This will ensure the accuracy of procedures, reduce risks and increase the effectiveness of treatment. • Development of Metaverse-based platforms for conducting telemedical consultations, virtual training of medical professionals and creation of interactive treatment protocols. 4. Territorial development: • Integration of Metaverse technologies into territorial management processes, including development planning, restoration of affected regions and attraction of investments through virtual presentations. • Using immersive technologies to create digital twins of cities and regions, which will allow modeling development scenarios, assessing risks and planning a long-term strategy. Significance for Ukraine: The signing of this memorandum not only lays the foundation for large-scale development of innovations, but also contributes to the integration of Ukraine into the global high-tech community. The use of immersive solutions and Metaverse makes it possible to radically change approaches to education, healthcare, urban planning and construction, creating new opportunities for sustainable development of territories and improving the quality of life of citizens. This cooperation will become an impetus for the implementation of projects that will ensure not only technical progress, but also strengthen Ukraine's resilience to modern challenges.

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https://lnkd.in/dRJZuFdc Georgia Has Crossed a Russian Rubicon Raids on opposition parties and suspending the EU bid expose a pantomime democracy. December 6, 2024 at 6:00 AM GMT+1 By Marc Champion What are we seeing in Georgia? That isn’t an easy question to answer, but I think it’s the moment at which the government of a functioning democracy crosses the line to illegitimacy and autocracy. That transition can be hard to spot in real time. Governing young states tends to get messy, and even authoritarian regimes claim democratic legitimacy, including the one President Vladimir Putin has developed in Russia, and President Xi Jinping’s in China. Yet at some point, those claims became transparently meaningless. That’s happening in Georgia. It's easy enough to see when an unpopular leader, such as South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, declares martial law for no genuine reason. His Dec. 3 attempt at what amounted to a constitutional coup failed and impeachment awaits him. Yet if that’s the political equivalent of an open declaration of war, Georgia’s evolution is more akin to hybrid warfare, where the subversion of institutions and rights is more surreptitious and is conducted in their name. A tipping point came this week, when authorities in the capital Tbilisi sent masked police to raid the headquarters of opposition parties, carry off their files and arrest a party leader who had the temerity to object. Security officers also waited for political activists outside their homes and bundled them into cars, presumably for detention. These were the actions of a police state.

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Electric cars are the biggest hoax of the 21st century

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18 Sep 06:40: Scholz 🤡🇩🇪😆🇩🇪🙃: What a ******! : ‘A terrific piece by Benjamin Tallis for German Council on Foreign Relations covering how Germany and Chancellor Olaf Scholz have puttered away the supposed historical pivot, or "Zeitenweide" that he announced in the days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite its lofty promises of supporting Ukraine, taking a harder stand against threats from authoritarian states, and expanding Germany's role in strengthening the EU and NATO, it has been largely business as usual as Berlin pursues short-term advantages in exchange for increasingly apparent long-term consequences for both Europe and Germany. Given the uncertain geopolitics all over the world, the German public wants greater communication, leadership, and strategic vision on the different big issues they face. Berlin 🤡🇩🇪🤡 needs to do better for Germans and Europeans 🇪🇺🇺🇦+ alike’: Thank you, William 🇺🇸 … and J Scott 🇺🇸🇺🇦:

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After several tense days marked by Russian terrorist attacks, it is time to return to discussing the political situation in Moldova, where the leadership of several key ministries has undergone changes. The Minister of Internal Affairs of Moldova, Adrian Yefros, has resigned. He has been replaced by Daniela Misail-Nikitina, the current State Secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Misail-Nikitina is also one of the founders of the non-governmental organization La Strada, which focuses on protecting women’s rights. Simultaneously, Minister of Agriculture Volodymyr Bolya has been reassigned as Minister of Infrastructure, replacing Andriy Spina, who also resigned. Entrepreneur Lyudmila Katlabuga has taken over as the new Minister of Agriculture. The need for changes in the government was announced by President Maia Sandu between the first and second rounds of elections, in response to public demand. However, contrary to expectations, there has been no complete overhaul of the Cabinet of Ministers. Its core composition and political philosophy remain unchanged. Moreover, the appointment of Misail-Nikitina, replacing Yefros—who had an ambiguous reputation—signals a strengthening of the pro-Western trajectory. Yefros was criticized for his slow response to Russian interference in the election process, despite his extensive experience in the security sector. In contrast, Misail-Nikitina’s appointment has sparked concerns that her focus may shift from security issues to prioritizing women’s rights and promoting political correctness. Critics argue that individuals tend to bring their previous priorities into new roles, making her appointment a controversial choice. Some analysts had anticipated that Maia Sandu might form a broad, pro-European government of national confidence by incorporating extra-parliamentary political forces. Notably, the president held meetings with representatives of such groups earlier this week. However, she opted for minimal changes, making only targeted replacements. This cautious approach could have political repercussions. The refusal to share power with other factions might lead to the defeat of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) in the parliamentary elections if Igor Dodon’s Socialists and Iryna Vlach’s Heart of Moldova party manage to unite. An insightful yet understated statement came from Moldova’s Minister of Defense, Anatoly Nosatoy, who admitted that the country lacks the capacity to monitor and neutralize drones violating its airspace—even three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This highlights the critical challenge of Moldova’s political organization and the effectiveness of its state policies. These issues will test Moldova’s readiness to join the European Union and Maia Sandu’s ability to maintain her majority in next year’s parliamentary elections.

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I have perhaps different perspective on EU enlargement. Turkey should be included in membership talks together with Ukraine and Moldova. Of course that special arrangements for Ukraine has created a momentum which requires different channels for integration. Ukraine would have never at least soon meet rigorous requirements in EU integration for obvious reasons. But being included in membership process gives perspective for reconstruction and recovery of their economy. Turkey likewise would never be a typical member but its status is important for migrant and geostrategic stability on East of Europe to Asia. Both huge countries have a lot to offer to Union ability to produce affordable and sustainable- from food, to energy and construction. I likewise have the same opinion of South East Europe. Likewise Europe must be more present in Africa and in partnership with Indian subcontinent. Not only that Europe is aging. European technology is aging. If we cannot produce vital within our borders to our costs we must peace and cooperate to create new perspectives. Unlike being under siege mentality we should mission European Greendeal values and projects to enlarged Union with Ukraine, Turkey and South East Europe and to other countries from where people and capital are going one direction to Europe. Present arrangements that tax and custom rest of world to preserve stil undeveloped EU sustainability standards and markets would not do. And this is where European Union diplomacy must become more operative and peace and cooperation oriented. In rudimentary world of conflicts diplomacy must grom slow reaction mind responses. Difficult but not impossible. Is it more important to have overpopulated Union struggling with preservation of its values or spreading EU values to other parts of closer and more distant world? But that means bringing EU standards- material, social and technological to rest of world. Precondition- lasting peace and cooperation. https://lnkd.in/dgB-CcvE

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🇩🇪 SPD proposes nominating Pistorius as a candidate for chancellor, reports Spiegel. During a closed session, some Bundestag deputies from the Social Democratic Party stated for the first time that the party should enter the elections not with Scholz but with the more popular Defense Minister Pistorius. Pistorius does not believe in the promise of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a quick end to the war in Ukraine. At the same time, he affirmatively answered a question about the possibility of Trump making a deal with Russian President Putin that would contradict the interests of Ukraine and Europe. Pistorius is a good potential candidate for the position of German chancellor, especially from the perspective of Ukraine’s interests. However, in the upcoming snap elections, scheduled for February 23, 2025, it is most likely that the CDU/CSU faction, led by Friedrich Merz, will win the majority of electoral votes. Merz is also a strong supporter of further military aid to Ukraine and even advocates for the transfer of Taurus cruise missiles. However, pre-election rhetoric may differ significantly from real actions on this issue. The CDU/CSU will likely form a coalition with the FDP and the Greens or create a so-called “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats. However, in the first scenario, coalition negotiations between the CDU/CSU and the Greens may be more complex and challenging due to differences between the parties on some key domestic policy issues. There will be no significant problems with the FDP, except perhaps regarding the influence on the distribution of portfolios in key ministries. However, the CDU/CSU will hold stronger positions on this issue, given their electoral rating and, consequently, a larger number of seats in the Bundestag. In any case, both Pistorius and Merz are among the best options for Ukraine. However, given the current situation, betting on Merz’s chancellorship would be a more advantageous strategy. 🇺🇦🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 • Glib Ostapenko •

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Foolish - Anbei eine Einschätzung der ukrainischen Kursk-Operation von John Mearsheimer “What does Ukraine’s into Russia really mean?  Here is my contribution:  Ukraine’s invasion (of Kursk) was a major strategic blunder, which will accelerate its defeat. The key determinant of success in a war of attrition is the casualty-exchange ratio, not capturing territory, which Western commentators obsess over. The casualty-exchange ratio in the Kursk offensive decisively favors Russia for two reasons. First, it has caused relatively few Russian casualties because Ukraine’s army effectively overran undefended territory. Second, once alerted to the attack, Moscow quickly brought massive airpower to bear against the advancing Ukrainian troops, who were in the open and easy to strike. Unsurprisingly, the attacking forces lost many soldiers and a huge proportion of their equipment. To make matters worse, Kyiv removed top-notch combat units from the front lines in eastern Ukraine — where they are desperately needed — and made them part of the Kursk strike force. This move is tilting the already lopsided casualty-exchange ratio on that critically important front further in Russia’s favor. It is no wonder — given what a foolish idea the Kursk incursion is — that the Russians were caught by surprise." Here is the entire symposium: https://lnkd.in/d57bBG4V

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🇪🇺 🇺🇦 The Council of the EU approved the transfer of revenues from taxable excess profits of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Annual revenues will amount to approximately €2.5-3 billion. 90% of revenues will be used for military purposes to support the defense of Ukraine. 10% will go to the restoration and reconstruction of Ukraine. The EU plan provides for the transfer to Ukraine of revenues received after February 15, 2024. Funds received prior to this date will be held in a Belgian Euroclear depository to cover any risks associated with, for example, lawsuits in Russia. The EU, US, Japan and Canada froze assets of the Russian central bank worth about $300 billion in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Only about $5-6 billion is in the United States, most of it is kept in Europe, in particular in the central securities depository of Belgium, Euroclear. Since the start of the war in 2022, they have generated a profit of €3.85 billion, and EU countries have discussed using this profit to help Ukraine. Germany supports the US plan to use proceeds from frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine, in particular, to provide a loan of up to $50 billion. The G7 is expected to discuss the issue this week, with a decision expected to be made in June. https://lnkd.in/ehSdTysX

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26 Jun 19:55: With thanks to Holger 🇩🇪🇺🇦, Stefanie 🇩🇪🇺🇦 … and Nikki 🇳🇿🇺🇦: ‘New NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte - more strategic appeasement towards russia 👺🤥🥷🏻🤡 is not possible, combined with the hope of being able to appease the next US President Trump at the same time. Probably a "double whammy" of miscalculation. With the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kallas 🇪🇪, NATO will face competition and significantly upgrade its profile, unless the expected continued shift to the right due to the French elections also leads to a weakening vis-à-vis russia:

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Politico raises an excellent question! Why is the Europe afraid to fight Russia back even when Russia attacks Europe directly through sabotage and terror I think because EU politicians are weak and have no idea or capability to respond. Things will get much worse for Europe Recent incidents attributed to Russia are an incendiary bomb at Leipzig airport and severed undersea cables in the Baltic Sea Known attacks include sabotage of critical infrastructure, targeting arms manufacturers (attempted assassination of Rheinmetall CEO), and arson attacks across multiple European countries European response? Hope it will go away. But it won't And hope is not the answer. But a structure to push back and control Russia is. Instead, Europeans fear escalation and do nothing, plus there are NATO's limitations - attacks are calibrated to stay below Article 5 threshold, while Article 4 consultations haven't been invoked (but may be they should!) Russia has adapted tactics after diplomat expulsions, now using "disposable agents" - young, Russian-speaking recruits with IT skills, paid in cryptocurrency So EU agencies should crack down on them, but they don't or do too little There is some response, but it is slow and insufficient. Europe should rethink its approach to security, wake up, and Strat getting real about Russian threat

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🇷🇺 russia's Military Relies on Tantalum Capacitors Despite Sanctions 🚀 • Tantalum capacitors are crucial for electronics, especially in military, aerospace, and telecommunications 📡 • russia produces only 2% of tantalum ore globally and lacks processing capabilities 🔧 • Tantalum is considered a "conflict mineral" due to its association with armed conflicts and child labor in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 🇨🇩 • Despite sanctions, russia's military industry continues to import tantalum capacitors for use in drones and missiles 🔫 • Capacitors from Japanese-American company Kyocera AVX 🇯🇵🇺🇸, manufactured in El Salvador 🇸🇻, have been found in russian weapons • American company Vishay 🇺🇸, with a production facility in Israel 🇮🇱, supplies capacitors to russia via China 🇨🇳 and Hong Kong 🇭🇰 • Kemet, another American manufacturer 🇺🇸, produces capacitors in Mexico 🇲🇽 that end up in russia through Hungary 🇭🇺 • Lithuanian 🇱🇹 customs brokers, such as Vinges Terminalas and Autoverslo Logistika, facilitate the import of capacitors into russia • The russian military-industrial complex benefits from tantalum capacitors despite international sanctions and the efforts of conscientious companies 💰 • The use of tantalum capacitors in russian weapons raises concerns about the effectiveness of sanctions and the role of intermediaries in circumventing them ❗ https://lnkd.in/gpQd4JWd #TantalumCapacitors #ConflictMinerals #Sanctions #GlobalTrade #Electronics #Defense #Geopolitics #AML #CTF #CPF

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