Mysteel Iron Ore

𝐋𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐌𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐥 𝐈𝐫𝐨𝐧 𝐎𝐫𝐞 𝐕𝐈𝐔 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 – 𝐌𝐀𝐂𝐅 𝐌𝐚𝐲 𝐒𝐞𝐞 𝐚𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐝 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 Seaborne cargoes remain the most competitive in terms of value-in-use (VIU), with 61% Indian Fines topping the list in our latest VIU report (see Table 1). Moving forward, Mysteel anticipates that medium- and high-grade fines will maintain the strongest VIU advantage, followed by low-grade products and lumps:  𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙡𝙪𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙈𝘼𝘾𝙁, 𝙎𝙋𝟭𝟬 𝙁𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨, 𝙁𝘽𝙁, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙋𝘽𝙇. 𝙈𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙪𝙢- 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝-𝙜𝙧𝙖𝙙𝙚 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨: - MACF prices are expected to remain resilient as steel mills continue to favor MACF for its higher VIU compared to PBF. Additionally, the relatively wide price spread between PBF and MACF is projected to narrow, which will likely provide support for MACF prices. - The price spread between PBF and SP10 Fines widened sharply, which is likely to narrow and bolster SP10 Fines moving forward. 𝙇𝙤𝙬-𝙜𝙧𝙖𝙙𝙚 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨: - FBF prices could experience an increase due to continuously declining port inventories and healthy demand bolstered by strong VIU. 𝙇𝙪𝙢𝙥𝙨: - Lump VIU is expected to strengthen. Despite this, demand for lumps will be constrained due to anticipated reductions in hot metal output ahead of the winter break and production controls. Portside lumps currently offer better VIU compared to seaborne lumps, making them a more attractive option in the short term. For more details, please refer to the Mysteel Iron Ore VIU Report! If you are interested, register for a free trial: https://lnkd.in/dFpfeQER #ironore #VALUEINUSE #lump #Fines

Season's greetings from the Mysteel lron Ore Team! #ironore #mysteel 💕 Thank you for your continued trust and collaboration in 2024. 🥰 May your holidays be filled with relaxation, meaningful moments, and happiness as we look forward to a successful New Year together. ❤️🔥 Our team: Mysteel VP & Iron Ore GM: Evan ZhangYong Executive Head of International Business: Chany Zhou 🔴 APAC Market ： Headed by: Julia Zhu Celia Xie Rebecca Wang Polaris Liang Lilly sui Freya Lu Vicky Wang 🔴 European, African, and American Market: Rachel Wang Saffron Ye Kevin Liu Monica MOU Castle Qi 🔴 MIOA Research Team: Headed by: Hannah Yang Chang Qin Krystal Zhang Cathy Zhao Jessie Xin Jeffery Craig Lei Refrain Annie Meng Janie Liang

Fed Cuts Rates By 25bps, Signals Hawkish Tone For 2025 As "Soft Landing" Risks Rearise On Wednesday, December 18, 2024, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the third and final rate cut of 2024, reducing the Fed funds rate from 4.50%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.50%. While markets were nearly unanimous in expecting this decision from the Fed, stocks tumbled to one of the worst days of the year as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite fell by multiple percentage points. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose following Powell's press conference, and other rate-sensitive areas of the market sold off throughout the afternoon. What worried the market the most was Powell's remarks regarding the central bank's year-end inflation projections as "kind of fallen apart," especially given the lack of progress in cooling price increases and inflation across the board. The Fed's tone was hawkish, shifting its focus and strategy back to inflation rather than the labor market, which they saw as the greater risk in September. In addition, the FOMC's outlook for 2025 was the most significant from yesterday, in particular, with the "dot plot" showing Fed officials' expectations of cutting rates just twice in 2025 by only half a percentage point, which is half of what the central bankers projected in their previous forecast in September. With U.S. inflationary data and unemployment trending upwards, and future concerns about trade and economic policies under a Trump administration increasing, risks are emerging for global manufacturers, infrastructure and construction activity, supply chains, and currency depreciation, which may have an indirect effect on ferrous market fundamentals, pricing for commodities such as steel and iron ore, and tertiary industries essential for economic development and growth. For a more in-depth analysis, please feel free to check our MIOA Weekly & Monthly Report and click the link below to start a free trial! https://lnkd.in/gdPMzCV

🚨 Latest Findings from Mysteel DR-Grade Concentrates S&D Report: A Narrowing Gap in Q4 🚨 🛰️ Mysteel has continued to track the DRI market with a comprehensive database and we're excited to introduce our quarterly DR-grade concentrates supply-demand report! Key highlights and report features include: 🔹 Demand & Supply Dynamics: Analysis of 16 major global DR-grade concentrate producers and 6 key DRI-producing countries. 🔹 Key Insights & Trends: Stay informed on industry developments, dynamics, and emerging market trends. 🧐 Latest Findings： ◼️ Q3 2024: Total production of potential DR-grade concentrates from 16 major mines reached approximately 40.81Mt, with demand at 29.95Mt. ◼️ Q4 2024: Supply is estimated to slightly decrease to 40.44Mt, while demand is expected to rise to 30.97Mt, narrowing the supply-demand gap from 10.86Mt to approximately 9.46Mt. 📈 Looking Ahead What's next for the DR-grade market? Our latest insights provide a clear picture of the evolving landscape and its implications for stakeholders. For full access to this exclusive report, please contact Julia Zhu at [email protected]. #DRGrade #DRI #IronOre #SupplyAndDemand #Mysteel #SteelIndustry #GlobalTrade #ResearchReport

💡Ferrous Insight Service: December Forecast – Cautious Strategy Focused on Short Positions With the conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December, macroeconomic policy directions have become clearer. However, the market has not received sufficient positive signals and is expected to remain in a correction phase in the short term. As a result, we foresee a downward trend for the remainder of December.📇 Rebar: The earlier rebound appears to have run its course, with market momentum weakening. The January contract is expected to trade within the range of RMB 3100-3200, with a potential downside of RMB 100-200. 🎯It is recommended to monitor the critical support level at RMB 3100 and consider short positions as opportunities arise. Iron Ore: While fundamentals remain relatively strong, current prices are still elevated. Declining demand and inventory adjustments are putting downward pressure on prices. The May contract is projected to retreat to RMB 770, with RMB 750 as a key support level to monitor for extreme positions.🔎 Coking Coal & Coke: Fundamentals remain weak, with slight inventory accumulation downstream and sluggish progress in winter stockpiling. Spot prices are fluctuating within a narrow range at lower levels. We suppose coking coal may drop to RMB 1000↘, while coke could decline by RMB 150–200. Short positions are recommended on price rebounds. For more data-driven market forecasts and strategy recommendations, explore the Mysteel Ferrous Insight service today! 🙌Free Trial Link: https://lnkd.in/eghEFc7h #FerrousMarket #SteelTrading #IronOre #FuturesTrading #MarketOutlook #MarketInsights #SteelIndustry #TradingStrategies #Commodities #InvestmentOpportunities #MarketTrends #FerrousInsightservice #Mysteel

U.S. Manufacturing PMI Contracts Amid Global Trade & Economic Uncertainty U.S. manufacturing activity contracted in December, with the PMI declining to 48.3 from 49.7 in November, signaling another monthly contraction in a sector that accounts for 10.3% of the U.S. economy. In December, manufacturing output fell sharply and at an increased rate, partly due to weak export demand, a strong U.S. Dollar, and concerning trends surrounding tariffs and the potential impact on inflation. In addition, the data was negative on multiple fronts: new orders received by factories fell, factory output dropped, supplier delivery times lengthened, prices paid by manufacturers for inputs rose, and raw material prices spiked amid supplier-led price rises and higher shipping costs, a reflection of busier supply chains in advance of threatened trade protectionism from the U.S. This most recent data shows that U.S. manufacturing is on unstable footing, with ongoing declines affecting market confidence. As new tariffs are on the horizon, manufacturers may face escalating costs and strained supply chains, dampening investor sentiment. Factories are expressing concern over the ongoing lack of demand and higher input prices, tying the poor outlook to tariff threats from the Trump administration. In essence, trade tensions are shaking manufacturing. As a result, lower manufacturing activity and weak export demand may lead to reduced steel demand and lower prices. Rising input prices may create a cost squeeze for manufacturers. Tariff threats may increase costs, disrupt supply chains, and dampen investment in steel-intensive manufacturing. Altogether, declining manufacturing activity in the U.S. and worldwide may drive price volatility in steel, scrap, and iron ore. For more details, please feel free to check our MIOA Weekly & Monthly Report and click the link below to start a free trial! https://lnkd.in/gdPMzCV

Quick Takeaway - Import Arbitrage Remains Negative Remained in Negative Territory Despite Minor Improvements Iron ore import arbitrage remained in negative territory despite a brief recovery. From December 5 to December 12, PBF arbitrage improved marginally by CNY 1.6/t, reaching CNY -12.5/t. The persistence of negative arbitrage is mainly attributed to firm seaborne prices, supported by positive macroeconomic sentiment stemming from recent central meetings in China. This was further bolstered by a 21.39% on-week increase in seaborne transactions. In contrast, portside transactions declined by 1.31% as mills have been purchasing from the portside market on an as-needed basis due to reduced hot metal output and poor profitability. While portside prices saw slight gains, elevated portside inventories continued to exert downward pressure.  Looking ahead, iron ore import arbitrage could see some relief from winter stockpiling by steel mills, which are showing a preference for portside resources. Besides, the upward momentum in seaborne prices may soften as market sentiment cools following the conclusion of the two central government meetings, potentially easing some pressure on import arbitrage. However, the anticipated increase in portside inventories and the ongoing decline in hot metal production could offset these benefits, introducing some uncertainties for arbitrage moving forward. For more details, please feel free to check our MIOA Weekly & Monthly Report and click the link below to start a free trial! https://lnkd.in/gzA8DuZu #ironore #steel #market #price #arbitrage #report #China #economy #PBF #port #inventory #fundamental

The latest Episode is now available on #Youtube! 👏 👏  👍 https://lnkd.in/gm9agikw 🙌 This week’s video highlights key aspects of the Chinese ferrous market, including steel inventory trends, production cuts, and raw material price movements. 🙌Feel free to subscribe to Mysteel Iron Ore YouTube Channel for Ferrous market insights every week！ https://lnkd.in/gUjSkDmj #Mysteel #ironore #steel #scrap #ferrous #mysteel #lumps #hotmetal

China Central Economic Work Conference: Loose Policies Aim to Stabilize Growth 👉 https://lnkd.in/geS3btft ❗ Mysteel Christmas Sales - 40% OFF 🎄 Mysteel VIP Express is your trusted partner, delivering the latest surveys, breaking news, and unparalleled insights into China’s iron ore and steel markets. Here’s what we have in store for you this December: ● Exclusive Market Updates: Stay ahead with access to our first-hand surveys tracking raw materials and steel winter stockpiling progress across China. ● Real-Time Policy Insights: Be the first to know about central government macroeconomic stimulus announcements and market rumors leading up to pivotal meetings. ● Industrial Trends & Regulations: Gain exclusive access to the latest industry dynamics and updates straight from industrial conferences. Last Chance for Christmas Savings! Don’t Miss Our Year-End Sale – Up to 40% Off! 🎄 This December, take advantage of our biggest sale of the year and secure premium access to expert-driven insights. Plus, enjoy a complimentary trial of Mysteel VIP Express to experience real-time updates firsthand. Equip yourself with the tools to stay ahead in the ever-changing iron and steel market. Make Mysteel VIP Express your ultimate tool for success—act now and secure your competitive edge!  For more info: https://lnkd.in/geS3btft #ironore #steel #macro #stock #ferrous #mine #December #Christmas #China #economy #fiscal #policy #news

🎯Ferrous Insight Service - Monthly Report: 🔎Outlook for December Market In November, there was an overall supply shortage of iron ore, with port stockpiles being reduced more than expected.🔹 It is anticipated that in December, portside inventory at China's 47 ports will see a reduction of 3Mt, an increase of 27Mt on-year. Iron ore prices in December are expected to rise ↗ initially and then decline↘, with the average price slightly higher than November.💹 This is driven by macro factors, including China's Politburo meeting and Central Economic Work Conference, and the Federal Reserve's expected 25-basis point rate cut in mid-December.💡 Market anticipations include a potential increase in the deficit ratio and a higher-than-expected 2025 growth target. As a result, iron ore prices are likely to rise or remain a high-level range-bound in the first half of December. However, it is worth noting that according to Mysteel's survey, 📇the winter storage expectation for rebar this year is relatively weak. Moreover, steel mills' inventory replenishment of iron ore is unlikely to provide substantial support for the continuation of the price rebound in the first half of the month.🔎 Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to rise initially and then decline, with the overall monthly average price likely slightly higher than in November. For more details on market forecasts and strategy recommendations, feel free to have a free trial of Mysteel Ferrous Insight Service! 🙌Free Trial Link: https://lnkd.in/eghEFc7h #FerrousMarket #SteelTrading #IronOre #FuturesTrading #MarketOutlook #MarketInsights #SteelIndustry #TradingStrategies #Commodities #InvestmentOpportunities #MarketTrends #FerrousInsightservice #Mysteel