Chris Hodgson

Below is a good summary and context for the Q3 quarterly report released by the CVCA. On the surface, it seems like it was a good quarter for venture investment in Canadá. But a quick look under the surface paints a potentially very different picture: - the 130 deals closed in Q3 matches the lows during COVID in 2020 - the $2,651MM in deal value appears fairly robust other than the heady days of 2021. But it includes both the Clio deal of $1,240MM and the Cohere deal of $616MM leaving the remaining 128 deals totalling $795MM, matching the levels last seen during COVID in 2020 - the vast majority of the source of the capital invested in Q3 are from US or other foreign sources of capital - early stage investments continue their trend of performing poorly this year What does this all mean? Not really sure yet. It certainly was not a good quarter of activity but it’s too early to call this a trend. But is it a leading indicator that deal activity will continue to be constrained? Is there evidence of a lack of Canadian source capital required to invest in startups, and in particular, early stage opportunities. When the Federal government decided to increase capital gains taxes, many people in the innovation community sounded the alarm bells. The fear was that such an increase will further take the air out of the sails of funding startups in Canadá. While it is still too early to conclude the impact of such a move, it is clear the timing of this decision is very unfortunate because there is a clear trend that the activity in venture from Canadian sources of capital is slowing down materially.

51

7 Comments

Yesterday I joined the AI Powering the New Energy Era summit, which was dedicated to exploring the impact of artificial intelligence on the energy sector. It was a true honor to share the stage with industry veterans Edwina Kelly of CPP Investments | Investissements RPC, Raymond Wood of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Emily Sanford Fisher of Edison Electric Institute, on a panel hosted by Brian Boland of BrightNight. How is AI impacting the energy space? There are two major trends emerging: 1. The use of AI is very energy intensive, creating an unexpected surge in power demand, just at the time when we need to decrease emissions from electric power, and when power demand is also growing from sources like electric vehicles. 2. Technology enabled by AI can also help make the electric power system far more efficient, and help manage the transition to a grid dominated by renewables and other zero-emissions sources. The first trend represents a big challenge, and the second represents a big opportunity. As the panel went on, it became clear that large institutions in the energy sector have a real interest in the new innovation that we support at MUUS Climate Partners. If that innovation can scale, it could provide solutions to some of the greatest challenges in energy today, such as growing power demand from data centers, and the expanding share of intermittent renewable generation. We talked about companies such as Harvest, 3E Nano Inc, and BrightNight. The talk can be viewed here: https://lnkd.in/eEa8ERxa

12

What are the AI investment trends in Canada? Check out this excellent analysis from the Canadian Venture Capital & Private Equity Association (CVCA) team

40

2 Comments

It was great to speak with the Logic earlier this week and share Tidal Venture Partners perspective on the subject of fund domiciling strategy.  It may sound like we’re in the weeds on this topic, but the question of where to domicile is a growing conversation and consideration for many Canadian fund managers with big long-term implications for our innovation economy.  The challenge of Canadian companies remaining Canadian owned will only become more acute if more Canadian funds start to domicile in other jurisdictions.

34

OMERS Ventures report on the #privatemarkets pre-trade, trade, post-trade technology platform opportunity (NB, image uses the Canadian translation of these terms we coined). 😊 "Great businesses look to build large, ever-expanding platforms early that move up and down their industry value chain. Who will win? Network effects: solutions that benefit exponentially as more users join the platform." 🏪 Pain-Point solution = Barnes & Nobles 🖥️ Enterprise Operating system = Amazon Take your bets. https://bit.ly/3BtFxyW #alternativeinvestments #esubdocs #innovation Laura Lenz Ryan Zauk Dave Wechsler

60

As a founder, have you ever been curious about this whole angel investing thing? This week's findfunding.vc spotlight is on an investor who's an expert in it you simply have to know: Matt Wilson, MBA from Allied Venture Partners. He: 🇨🇦 Is Calgary based 😇 Manages one of Canada's largest angle investor syndicates (now at 1,800+ members!) 🏒 Worked as a professional ice hockey referee, which he says shares remarkable similarities with investing Amongst founders, Matt Wilson, is known for bringing empathy and perspective as a former founder himself. Aside from financial support, his goal is to be the 'right' investor - one that aligns with a founder's vision, shares his network, and provides strategic insights when asked. ✉️ Make sure to pitch him, invest, scout, advise and more at https://linktr.ee/alliedvc For more, check out our funder spotlight card below along with Allied Venture Partners' profile on findfunding.vc (link in comments).

24

6 Comments

Mergers and acquisitions are currently outperforming last year's figures, with activity levels tracking 10 per cent to 15 per cent higher. This improvement is evident both in the overall number of deals being completed and in the total value of these transactions. Read More Here: https://lnkd.in/eHaAXw5G. Branded Hospitality Ventures Hospitality Headline Newsletter #MandA #Mergers #Acquisitions #finance Matthew Lerner Michael Schatzberg Noah Stern Dylan Challenger

8

At 36%, Canada's capital gains rate is the HIGHEST in the G7 countries. Capital gains is the tax on risky investments in technology, new ventures, and real estate, and other risky ventures. Raising the rate from 27% (previous) to 36% (2024 budget proposed) makes Canada the WORST country to invest in from a tax standpoint. 1. United States = 20% (our neighbor and fierce competitor for talent and capital) 2. Japan = 20.35% (higher for real property) 3. UK = 25% 4. Italy = 26% 5. Germany = 26.3% 6. France = 30% + 4% (conditional) = 34% 7. Canada = 36% Liberal government is sending a message to entrepreneurs and investors...and that message is "build your business and invest ELSEWHERE". Source: https://lnkd.in/g_QDsde7

187

14 Comments

THIS is one of the best analyses I've read on the VC ecosystem as of late. While John Rikhtegar spends the report covering the Canadian ecosystem, I find it as useful - and lots of parallels to the US VC ecosystem and where LP dollars went - for the broader global economy. It's a longer read, but I promise, worth every minute. Some of the notes that stuck out most for me: 1/ 50% of the past decade's exit values were generated in 2020 and 2021. Great liquidity for LPs, but that forced LPs to have an unprecedented amount of capital to redeploy, which made them redeploy quickly to VC, but caused a vacuum and left 2023 and 2024 years far drier for GPs fundraising in market. 2/ From peak in 2021/2022, there's been a 76% drop in exit value in the Canadian ecosystem, 85% drop in Canadian VCs fundraising, and a 77% drop in capital Canadian VCs invest into the ecosystem. 3/ The median exit age of for the top 50 Canadian companies is 12 years. The median time between first financing and its exit for the top 50 is 8 years, leaving a median time of 4 years from a company's founding to their first financing. As such, if a Canadian VC's deployment period is 4 years, it's right to assume as an LP, that you're not going to see the end of the fund till 12 years after you invest. Even if the GP pitches a 10-year fund. 4/ Not all exits are created equal. The top quartile of top 50 exits raised more capital than the lower quartile. The median exit capital efficiency for Canada's top 50 companies for was 7.7X. Meaning the median company exited for $7.70 on every $1 they raised. 5/ Median US exit values are 2X Canada's. That said, Canada is catching up. In the past decade, the US produced $2.6T in exit value, compared to Canada's $56B, only a 46X. Lowest delta on record.

34

1 Comment

The AI hype bubble is almost over. When investors refused to fund new AI startups because they know they’re going to fail, then the AI hype bubble is starting to fail. Even the most clueless, Investors now know that this is a bubble waiting to burst like the metaverse bubble and the dotcom bubble. And nobody wants to be left, holding the back on this bubble. The era of free money iis over with interest rates sky high. When big tech companies are losing money on AI and the bigger AI startups are demonstrating that they are all dead and struggling to even have revenue, then no one is interested in funding, smaller AI startups that they don’t believe will be profitable anytime soon. People aren’t waiting for an AI unicorn to break out. They are waiting for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and similar to start buying distressed AI startups. Collapsing companies and minimal paths to profitability doesn’t help a space that was already overhyped. Don’t forget in all this mess that the unfortunate reality is that engagement and retention don’t match installs and downloads. What I mean by this is the most basic of mobile tracking were ignored. You don’t judge success in the mobile market based on downloads or installs, but rather based on retention and engagement. What this means is, it’s not actually impressive for OpenAI to get to 100 million users quickly if 2% of them retain. The question is not how many people signed up for a free account. The question is how many monthly active users and daily active users do AI startups like OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, Stability, and others have. And how many are paying customers? And what we are finding is that retention is in low single digits. The reality is that AI startups are getting users the way that mobile free to play did. And they haven’t found a way to actually make money on that. Don’t ask an AI startup how many users signed up. Ask them how many DAUs and MAUs they have. Ask them what their ARPDAU is. What you will find is that every number is low. AI startups have no idea how to do monetization, and they don’t have regular active users in any volume. What this points to is that they’re all going to fold or get bought.

38

7 Comments

Abundance AND impact? Yes, please! 🌳 Merging historical IRRs of 35% with social impact investing, our search fund is a creative, emergent and exciting way to shape the future of Canadian small business. The New York Times did a great piece on traditional search funds and the opportunities in this space. #regenerativeleadership #canadiansearch #canadiansmb #eta #impactinvesting

10

How to invest in a Venture Fund? Calling all Limited Partners (LPs) and Family Offices! 📢 Are you looking to dive deeper into the world of venture capital? Want to understand how to invest in venture funds? This is a fantastic opportunity for you! We are excited to invite you to Venture Summit: Toronto Collision, where industry leaders and experts will share insights & strategies in venture capital investing. Event Highlights: 🔹 Engaging Panels: Gain practical knowledge on structuring investments, managing portfolios, and navigating the VC landscape. 🔹 Networking Opportunities: Connect with like-minded investors, LPs, family offices, and founders to build valuable relationships. 🔹 Meet Fund Managers Starting their next Fund: meet emerging managers and learn about their experience, thesis, strategy, expertise and passion for venture investing. 🔹 Startup Spotlight: Listen to shortlisted startup pitches & and connect with founders throughout the event. Date: Thursday, June 20th Register: https://lnkd.in/garRw37p Message me for a free investor ticket if you are interested in attending (limited quantity)! Don’t miss out on this exclusive chance to enhance your investment strategy and expand your network. #VentureSummit #TorontoCollision #VentureCapital #Investing #LPs #FamilyOffices #Networking #Innovation #InvestmentStrategy #VC #startups #fundraising #deals #founders #investors #limitedpartners #innovation #diversification

37

#alternative_investments There’s nothing like a US selloff on a Canadian holiday Monday. Last week’s equity drawdowns began when Canadians were still enjoying the August long weekend, though it’s unlikely that anybody in asset management was still enjoying themselves that Monday. The week of volatility that followed, with recovery rallies, false starts, and whipsaw swings were enough to give even seasoned investors a bit of whiplash. Watching his own RRSP last week, Mike Woollatt says that he was reminded of a key tenet of his work: that private assets offer volatility offsets. Woollatt is the managing director and head of Canada at Hamilton Lane, one of the world’s largest private market investment managers. While private assets are often cited for their outperformance against public markets overtime, Woollatt thinks that this particular moment drives home their utility as a volatility offset. https://lnkd.in/duBFaUR3

4

The Access Group has acquired Paytronix, a leading customer engagement platform for convenience stores and restaurants. The deal, announced on Nov. 1, 2024, aims to expand Paytronix’s platform offerings and accelerate its growth. The acquisition will also double The Access Group’s North American team and integrate its business management solutions, such as CRM, inventory, and accounting, with Paytronix’s loyalty programs, mobile apps, and online ordering tools. Paytronix will retain its name and continue serving major brands like Panera Bread and QuickChek Corporation. Both companies expect the partnership to enhance their value and growth in the U.S. market. Read More: https://lnkd.in/ezdJwzYm C-Store Dive Jessica Loder Branded Hospitality Ventures Hospitality Hangout Podcast #Hospitality #Growth #Technology #Innovation Andy Crofts Jo Fontaine John Coldicutt James Swaine Rachael Moss Charles Gray Dan Murphy Chris Lanno Matt d'Arbeloff Stefan Kochi

29

2 Comments

Just finished reading an insightful analysis by John Rikhtegar at RBCx on the Canadian venture capital landscape over the past decade, focusing on capital exited rather than capital invested. This deep dive sheds light on the challenges and successes of our venture ecosystem and provides valuable lessons for the future. Here are my top 5 takeaways: 1️⃣ Liquidity Volatility Challenges the VC Ecosystem Over 50% of Canada's exit value in the past decade occurred in just 2020 and 2021. This surge pulled fund cycles forward as GPs rushed to redeploy record waves of LP capital. Consequently, 2023 and 2024 have seen some of the lowest levels of capital allocated to Canadian venture in years. 2️⃣ The Dominance of Top 50 Exits A staggering 85% of Canada's aggregate exit value came from only 27% of all exits—the Top 50 largest. Achieving such large exit outcomes remains critical for VC investors aiming to build lasting franchises in Canadian venture. 3️⃣ Exit Success Isn't Just About Size There's a misconception that bigger exits equate to greater success. By evaluating exit capital efficiency (exit value relative to total capital raised), we can better assess the profitability to shareholders. Capital-efficient exits often yield higher returns, regardless of their size. 4️⃣ Canada's Exit Growth Outpaces the U.S. While smaller in scale, Canada's exit value and volume have grown faster than the U.S. over the past decade. Given that the U.S. VC market is 30x larger and more mature, this is a healthy sign for Canada's developing ecosystem. 5️⃣ Managing the Exit Value to Fundraised Ratio is Key To continue building a capital-efficient VC ecosystem, Canada must focus on improving its cumulative exit value to capital fundraised ratio. Shrinking the gap between Canada and the U.S. in this ratio is vital as we anticipate exit activity to rebound in the coming years. This analysis aligns closely with Ripple Ventures' strategy. At Ripple Ventures, we prioritize investing early and staying disciplined on entry valuations, all while focusing on capital efficiency. We believe that supporting capital-efficient startups not only drives better returns but also strengthens the overall ecosystem. It's encouraging to see data supporting this approach, emphasizing the importance of disciplined investing and capital efficiency in achieving successful exits. 📖 Read the full analysis below: #VentureCapital #CanadianVC #RBCx #RippleVentures #CapitalEfficiency #StartupEcosystem

13

1 Comment

Another great #investcanada2024 conference last week. Congrats Canadian Venture Capital & Private Equity Association (CVCA) again and fantastic collaboration with Réseau Capital for curating + delivering such an important ecosystem event that brings together the who’s who in Canadian investing. It’s an interesting macro environment for both founders and emerging VC funds in 2024. The bar for fundraising is higher and the process is more difficult, but it’s an amazing time to build and fund startups. Over the years I’ve been asked what’s made me a successful investor given the number of exits & investor returns delivered. Beyond it being a full-time obsession for decades, one needs to constantly find ways to evolve to founder needs and deliver differentiated value. Earning the right to back and support the best founders is what delivers outsized investor returns. This is easy to say for many investors, but often many fall flat on the everyday execution for different controllable reasons. Reputations are built & lost fast in a more challenging market. Highline Beta's pre-seed VC & venture studio model continues to not only innovate, but also win predominantly because our core investment value is to always “earn the right on the cap table” with the founders that we support. It’s a complete team effort and after 8 years of building out Highline Beta’s foundation let’s us now grow via new vertical venture studios + funds. 🚀

98

3 Comments

Despite a growing and robust Canadian tech ecosystem, the country has minted fewer than 30 unicorns in the past decade compared to the US's 700. Should Canadian VCs look to invest internationally? If so, what's the optimal approach to accessing global opportunities, navigating financial and cultural differences, and providing meaningful value? Alternatively, should they focus on strengthening the Canadian tech ecosystem? Is the lack of unicorns primarily a cultural, structural, or financial issue, or a combination? Can VCs play a role in addressing these challenges? Happy to participate in the Canadian Venture Capital & Private Equity Association (CVCA) webinar with Mana Hosseini, JD/MBA and Kim Furlong addressing these topics. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Registration link in the comments #venturecapital #startups #investing #canada

23

6 Comments

I recently attended the #BCGinCanada Conference (CanCon) 2024, and I'm amazed by the depth of insights we gained from BCG leaders! Discussing geopolitics and economic trends has equipped us with strategic tools to better serve our clients in these uncertain times.   #CanCon2024 #Geopolitics #EconomicImpact   

36

Building a venture capital platform is more than just about money; it's about moving mountains. John Rikhtegar reveals the secrets to orchestrating successful fund-to-fund operations at RBCx. In today's episode of Swimming with Allocators, John shares invaluable advice for corporates venturing into fund-to-fund practices, emphasizing the critical need for alignment at the top. Tune in to learn how strategic alignment, unique value propositions, and deep integration can transform potential into success in the venture capital landscape. Learn from John Rikhtegar how to actively shape the innovation economy and lead transformative fund-to-fund practices that meet the future head-on.

40

2 Comments