Brontë Macfarlane

The Fed fixed its July mistake with a 50bp cut last night, but with a more hawkish rate path relative to market expectations, we still expect to see dollar upside. https://loom.ly/orQ0BHU #fed #federalreserve #dollar #usd #fxmarkets #foreignexchange #financialservices #fxtraders

3

A blockbuster week in markets went largely as planned. The dollar closed stronger as monetary policy expectations diverged from the Fed, while implied volatility ticked higher as YTD ranges were broken in spot markets. With so many central bank speakers scheduled for next week, it should be more of the same. https://loom.ly/bdm8zog #monetarypolicy #centralbank #fed #federalreserve #dollar #usd #fxmarkets #financialmarkets #foreignexchange #fxtraders

4

Tons of M&A going down in Canadian Fintech: 🤝 Fluence Technologies a Toronto based FP&A software was acquired by Anaplan, a US rival. 🤝 Bitbuy (a division of WonderFi) has acquired the Canadian customers of Bitstamp, a rival crypto exchange who pulled out of Canada. 🤝 GroupeX Solutions, a Toronto based HR professional services firm was acquired by much larger French rival, HR Path. 🤝 SVB’s VC business is being sold off to Pinegrove Capital Partners, a fund launched in part by Brookfield Asset Management. -- Want more? Subscribe to the Canadian Fintech Newsletter in the comments below 👇

48

5 Comments

Markets take a breather with a light data calendar coming up, ahead of FOMC meeting minutes and US CPI later this week. https://lnkd.in/enUQsgdu #inflation #cpi #fomc #fed #federalreserve #dollar #usd #fxmarkets #foreignexchange #financialservices #fxtraders

3

A good check on your own asset allocation assumptions. The following are the implied volatilities of various strategy/departments at CPP Investments | Investissements RPC based on converting 95% VaR to a Volatility using 1.65x factor from the Normal Distribution (as bad as that may be, especially for Credit portfolios). - Real Assets 13% ($30/$137/1.65) - Private Equity 20% ($52/$156/1.65) - Credit 9.9% [ex Govt+IG] ($11/$67.7/1.65) - Total Fund Mgmt 8.6% [effectively a passive 60/40] ($38/$267/1.65)

15

1 Comment

Notes From the Desk: CAD October CPI - Neither Here Nor There Inflation rose slightly in October, with headline CPI at 2%. But this probably does very little to influence the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision in December. The numbers. YoY CPI: 2% (1.9% expected) YoY CPI Median: 2.5% (2.3% expected) YoY CPI Trim: 2.6% (2.4% expected) The implications. While the numbers are slightly above forecast, there weren’t many upside surprises. Shelter, property, tax, and clothing costs were slightly higher than anticipated. We believe the BoC will maintain the view that inflation is at target and focus on the growth numbers when making their next rate decision. While bond traders might marginally reduce the chances of a jumbo cut, it remains a coin toss whether they go 25 bps or 50 bps in December.

5

After a quiet end to November, FX price action should pick up again this week, with NFPs headlining what should be a busier roster of events for traders to keep an eye on. https://loom.ly/zQlkolk #payrolls #nfp #economicdata #dollar #usd #fxmarkets #foreignexchange #financialservices #fxtraders

3

At 2.0% YoY Canadian inflation rose by a little more than expected in October. That said, we think there is good reason for the BoC to look through this surprise, keeping alive prospects of a jumbo rate cut next month. https://loom.ly/Ar53U_g #canadiandollar #loonie #inflation #cpi #bankofcanada #fxmarkets #foreignexchange #financialservices #fxtraders

1

If you're a Canadian reader, then you’ve probably got a pretty hefty chunk of your investment portfolio dedicated to domestic stocks. It’s what we call a “home country bias,” and it’s not unusual at all. Despite Canada representing only about 3% of the global market cap according to the MSCI World Index, I’ve noticed that a lot of us tend to allocate a much larger portion to domestic stocks, sometimes as much as 20-50%. Now, don’t get me wrong; loving where you’re from and banking on homegrown companies isn’t a bad strategy, especially with the familiarity and perceived safety it brings. But let’s talk balance. Leading providers like iShares and Vanguard seem to have found a sweet spot, typically setting Canadian equity exposure at about 25% - 30% in their asset allocation ETFs. At this level, historical data suggests you can enjoy reduced currency risk and better tax efficiency, not to mention more favorable risk-adjusted returns. So, how do you smartly implement this home country bias if you're rolling up your sleeves to DIY an ETF portfolio? Here's my personal top picks for the best major ETFs to get you invested in the Canadian stock market, along with some insights on each.

2

More to come I am certain. "Georgian Partners—Canada’s largest independent #VC firm with $5.6 billion USD in assets under management—wrote down 28 investments in 21 companies across five funds, representing a whopping $430-million USD loss in value." #BDC also wrote down their #venture holdings in September - see comments for the link. #venturecapital #privateequity #valuations #CanadianVC

16

5 Comments

Market turbulence ahead! As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, the market takes notice. Investors brace for uncertainty, prompting a sell-off across sectors. Do you have a question about investing? Feel free to call me at 416-332-3863 or email me at [email protected]

2

Nvidia continues its meteoric rise, reaching a record high stock price yesterday. This surge in value has propelled Nvidia’s market capitalization to a staggering new level: over $3.34 trillion. That’s right, a single company is now worth more than the combined value of all publicly traded companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange, which sits around $3.2 trillion! Check out our latest blog from Stephanie Bloom detailing this incredible story and urging investors to remain level-headed. https://lnkd.in/gsZFEggX

4

The global debt problem seems likely to continue and grow, at least in developed economies. As you can see in the chart below, big nations governments are not able to balance their budget, and with the exceptions of Canada and Germany, all of them are running budget deficits. In one end of the spectrum, France collects very high taxes relative to its gdp (55%), and yet their spending is even higher (60ish%). The U.S., on the other end, collects much less in taxes (less than 30%, but has the biggest gap relative to revenue. All these gaps need to be financed with debt, and their cumulative effects are affecting these economies ability to grow. The US is betting heavily on AI to create a new paradigm that allows more revenue to close the gap, similar to the late 90’s period that allow Clinton to show a budget surplus thanks to the internet. But since there is no fiscal discipline, government spending will grow as well, erasing the benefits. The only realistic solution might be inflation. Want to know more? join Fund@mental here https://lnkd.in/ewBZ9GK4 #iamfundamental #soyfundamental #wealthmanagement #familyoffice #financialadvisor #financialplanning #policymistake #ratecut #stagflation

19

1 Comment

A look at $632B CPP Investments | Investissements RPC asset mix from the just released 2024 Annual Report: - 121% Long vs 20% Short (some use of shorting should be in almost every professionally managed portfolio) - 21% Market Neutral/Absolute Return - 7.8% Real Estate & 8.4% Infrastructure - Private Equity & Private Credit are more ambiguous - Probably safe to say Private Equity = 24.6% or more & Private Credit 9.45% or more

21

Canada Approaching First Rate Cut North American equities have continued their rally, buoyed by strong first-quarter earnings reports. Notably, NVIDIA's earnings exceeded expectations, reigniting market enthusiasm and pushing equity indices higher. The S&P 500 briefly reached 5300 before retreating to around 5200, as concerns arose that tech stock valuations were becoming overly stretched. Analysts caution that a potential recession in the US and Canada could erode many of these gains. Despite this, investors remain optimistic about the continued rally in equities, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 10% year-to-date. Regarding interest rates, the US appears far from implementing any rate cuts in 2024, given robust job reports and persistent inflation. However, Canada presents a different scenario. Recent economic data indicate weaknesses, with April's GDP growth at 1.7% annually, falling short of the Bank of Canada's 2.4% forecast. This data increases the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates at their June 5th meeting. Such a move could pressure the Canadian dollar and further drive up housing prices. The Bank of Canada has previously emphasized that their priorities are the overall economy and inflation, not housing prices specifically. #currency #currencyexchanhge #currencytrader #inflation #stockmarket #stockmarketnews #stocktrading

6

In his latest Globe and Mail article, Dr. George Athanassakos argues that value stocks are superiour to growth stocks because growth stocks often earn terrible long-term returns. Read more to find out why. https://lnkd.in/eXWMQE3U #valueinvesting

7

1 Comment