Innovative Research Group reposted this
It is America’s 248th birthday today and Donald Trump is the candidate of hope. I am serious. Canadians care a lot about what happens in the US. To paraphrase Pierre Trudeau, when you sleep beside an elephant, you care about every twitch and grunt. To help us better understand what is going on down there, Innovative Research Group polled almost 3,000 American about this election. The survey was conducted earlier in June, before the debate. Americans are famously polarized. Measures of party affinity and loyalty show the electorate almost equally divided. The vote is neck and neck and the oversamples in target states re-enforce that. The candidates have both served as President and voters know them well. Not surprisingly, 70% said they had already heard enough to make up their minds. But the poll still gave me a few surprises. Trump leads competence Even before the debate, American voters gave Donald Trump higher marks for his performance as President than Joe Biden. But he is also ahead in terms of personal connection. Looking back, a majority (51%) of voters felt Trump made things better for them, while only 44% say that about Biden. Looking ahead. the typical voter is more likely to expect Trump to make things better, not worse, on affordable housing, making ends meet and helping them get ahead. More expect Joe Biden to make those things worse, not better. When I started in politics in the 80s and 90s, the campaigns I was on often faced campaigns engineered by Ron Johnson, who went on to found Now Communications. Johnson had a signature style where he used the ballot question “who’s on your side” to build victories for Western Canadian New Democrats. Right now, in the US, the answer to the question “who is on your side” is Donald Trump. But as the race enters its final months, Joe Biden will not only have to play catch-up on competence, but on empathy. See more here