Gilvan Bueno

Patria Investments’ GPMS Solutions business generates 19% gross IRR from secondaries investments. Committed capital to GPMS secondaries stood at €2.6 billion as of June, accounting for 25% of the platform. Alexandre Saigh | Marco D'Ippolito #Secondaries #SecondaryMarket #AlternativeInvestments #PrivateMarkets #PrivateEquity #PE https://lnkd.in/eGMtYM_U

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Brazil: IPCA inflation rate accelerates to 3.93% y/y in May, after a sequence of 07 months of deceleration IPCA inflation rate accelerates to 3.93% y/y in 12-month terms in May from 3.69% the month earlier, after a sequence of 07 months of deceleration, according to data released Tuesday by the stats office IBGE. In addition, IPCA inflation rate increased 0.46% m/m, up from a 0.38% gain in April. Part of the monthly acceleration is attributed to a weaker comparison base from the same period in the previous year, as inflation rate had accelerated 0.23% in May 2023. In m/m terms, eight out of the nine groups surveyed presented gains in the basket of products and services. Notably, the groups of health and personal care, housing, and food & beverages. Alongside the transportation group, these groups were the main contributors to the overall increase of the inflation headline. Together, they accounted for 89% of the inflation index variation. Health and personal care accelerated 0.69% m/m in May, after an increase of 1.16% seen in the month earlier. This group exerted an impact of 0.09pp (down by 0.06pp m/m). This upward movement reflected a 0.77% adjustment in health insurance plans and a 1.04% increase in personal hygiene items. Overall, the IPCA inflation rate of May represents a negative surprise quantitatively and qualitatively. A yellow alert is raised for a potential inflationary reacceleration, initially towards the 4% mark over the 12-month period, with the possibility of further short-term increases. This outcome suggests a need for a conservative and cautious decision by the monetary authority. De-anchoring of inflation expectations, coupled with the uncertain fiscal scenario, is expected to continue pressuring the local exchange rate and market volatility, exacerbated by communication issues from the Finance Minister and the economic team. All these factors implies there may not be room for a further 25bps cut at the upcoming Copom meeting, as they indicate an upward inflationary pressures for 2024 and 2025, assuming that the economy operates near its potential GDP. Analysts will closely monitor the Copom reaction to the higher-than-expected IPCA inflation rate in the upcoming meeting, in which a pause in monetary easing is beginning to appear plausible. Produced by Macro+Markets

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Brazil: Analysts have raised the 2024 year-end IPCA inflation forecast to 4.22% y/y. A 25bps monetary tightening is expected at the next Copom meeting The current market question is: What will be the magnitude of the next monetary tightening decision in September? In Macro+Markets' base case, there is a 75% probability of 75% of a 25bps Selic rate increase at the upcoming September Copom meeting due to the monetary authority’s asymmetric risk assessment. Although the recent measures to partially address short-term fiscal risk perception, and any Selic interest rate adjustment, the government will need additional contingency measures in the coming quarters of 2024 to achieve the fiscal deficit target of 0.0% or the upper tolerance limit of 0.25%, as the announced contingency measures are insufficient. Produced by Macro+Markets

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Brazil: Analysts raise 2024 year-end IPCA inflation forecast to 4.02%, reflecting an ongoing de-anchoring inflation expectation Analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) increased their IPCA inflation forecast for 2024 year-end from 4.00% to 4.02%, marking the nineteenth consecutive upward revision, reflecting ongoing de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Additionally, the forecast for 2025 has risen to 3.88%, marking the tenth consecutive upward revision, as released in the Focus Report on Monday. Meanwhile, the IPCA inflation forecast for 2026 and 2027 have been maintained at 3.60% and 3.50%, respectively. Despite these higher forecasts exceeding the inflation target of 3.00%, they remain below the upper limit of the +/-1.5 percentage point allowable fluctuation band. Overall, the ongoing de-anchoring of inflation expectations reflects the risk perception from analysts and investors regarding the current deterioration in the fiscal scenario, the lack of desired fiscal responsibility communication from the President, and concerns about the final phase of core inflation deceleration, particularly emphasizing services inflation. External factors, such as the uncertain start of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and the historically high Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in the United States, also contribute to an adverse domestic economic situation. More specifically, the monetary policy from the FOMC is acting as a limiter to the easing cycle of the BCB, as Brazil is an emerging market and may need to avoid volatility in its exchange rate. Produced by Macro+Markets

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🔆 BUYSIDEBRAZIL | Weekly Report | With economic growth still at a robust level, the #FED is not expected to cut #interestrates in 2024, impacting a higher terminal #Selic – 04/26 ✅ Despite the result being below market expectations, the composition of the US #GDP for 1Q24 showed that the American economy remains heated. GDP advanced 1.6% QoQ SAAR (est. 2.5%), mainly reflecting weaker contributions from inventories and imports. However, the service consumption increase coupled with the acceleration of private investment suggests that economic activity continues to grow, in a robust labor market context. Thus, we revised our expectation of 2 cuts in the Fed Funds to no cuts in 2024. ✅ Based on this premise, we incorporated a more depreciated #exchangerate scenario for the year, moving from R$5.10 to R$5.20 in 2024 and from RS5.00 to RS5.05 in 2025. In domestic #inflation, the depreciation of the exchange rate should be felt in the rise of industrial goods. Therefore, we revised our annual #IPCA projection from 3.6% to 3.8% this year, with 2025 at 3.5%, compared to the previously forecasted 3.4%. ✅ On the #monetarypolicy front, the worsening in the international environment, the exchange rate depreciation, and the increase in inflation expectations suggest that the Central Bank should adopt a more cautious stance in the upcoming meetings. President Roberto Campos Neto, despite emphasizing the absence of a mechanical relationship between US and Brazilian interest rates, publicly highlighted the increasing importance of the external scenario given its effects on emerging economies. Thus, we expect the committee to slow down the pace of rate cuts and keep the terminal rate at a higher level to meet the inflation target, with two more 25bps cuts in 2024, and a 10.25% rate at the end of the year (against the previously expected 9.25%). For more information, enter www.buysidebrazil.com #FX #brazilianeconomy #emergingmarkets #financialmarkets

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Brazil: Analysts has raised the year-end 2024 Selic interest rate forecast to 11.50%, following the monetary tightening initiated by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) last week The ongoing deterioration in inflation expectations is a result of a higher risk perception from analysts and business leaders regarding local key factors, including the unsustainable trajectory of public finances. According to some fiscal experts, the current government is implementing measures to increase public expenses, taking advantage of the fiscal space allowed by judicial rulings outside this year’s fiscal goal, such as the payment of previous debts (or precatórios in Portuguese) and advance transfers to the state of Rio Grande do Sul. In general, even if the government achieves the lower band of the fiscal target – 0.5% of GDP (or BRL 28.8bn), the public debt will continue to rise, leading to expectations that Brazil’s debt will not stabilize in the foreseeable horizon. Currently, the net debt-to-GDP ratio reached 63.5% of GDP and the market projects a ratio of 85.6% by early 2026. In Macro+Markets' base case, there is a 75% probability of a 25bps in the Selic rate at the upcoming November meeting. The outlook is driven by the monetary authority’s asymmetric risk assessment, concerns over resilient services inflation, the de-anchoring of inflation expectations, a heated labor market, unachievable fiscal goals for 2024 and a strong demand contributing to GDP growth in 2024. Produced by Macro+Markets

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Brazil: Analysts has raised the year-end 2024 Selic interest rate forecast to 11.50%, following the monetary tightening initiated by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) last week The ongoing deterioration in inflation expectations is a result of a higher risk perception from analysts and business leaders regarding local key factors, including the unsustainable trajectory of public finances. According to some fiscal experts, the current government is implementing measures to increase public expenses, taking advantage of the fiscal space allowed by judicial rulings outside this year’s fiscal goal, such as the payment of previous debts (or precatórios in Portuguese) and advance transfers to the state of Rio Grande do Sul. In general, even if the government achieves the lower band of the fiscal target – 0.5% of GDP (or BRL 28.8bn), the public debt will continue to rise, leading to expectations that Brazil’s debt will not stabilize in the foreseeable horizon. Currently, the net debt-to-GDP ratio reached 63.5% of GDP and the market projects a ratio of 85.6% by early 2026. In Macro+Markets' base case, there is a 75% probability of a 25bps in the Selic rate at the upcoming November meeting. The outlook is driven by the monetary authority’s asymmetric risk assessment, concerns over resilient services inflation, the de-anchoring of inflation expectations, a heated labor market, unachievable fiscal goals for 2024 and a strong demand contributing to GDP growth in 2024. Produced by Macro+Markets

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📈#MarketRoundup: Businesses’ default level stabilizes. What does it mean? This week, the Central Bank stepped the brakes of monetary easing by opting for a 0.25-point reduction in Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, a departure from the half-percentage cuts seen in its past six meetings. The decision casts a shadow over indebted businesses, signaling potential challenges for those struggling with default. ♟️State of play. According to Serasa Experian, a credit protection agency, the number of Brazilian businesses with overdue debts surged from 5.9 million to 6.6 million between late 2021 and the first half of 2023, coinciding with the Central Bank’s monetary tightening efforts aimed at curbing post-pandemic inflation. 🔗Read more in our full article by Fabiane Ziolla Menezes here 👇 https://lnkd.in/dfPJ2Mbt #Business #Debt #Economt #Brazil

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Us and them? Every 45 days or so the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) makes a 2-day meeting to decide what is the level of the overnight rate in which the BCB will provide and take liquid from the market. According to the President of the BCB this decision impacts 40% of the cost of funding in the economy. The rest ranges from subsidized or pre-defined lines of credit to the rates that the market practices for tenors longer than the overnight, which is the majority. Anyways the level of this rate, called Selic, signs what the Central Bank thinks about the need to cool down or heat up the economy so that inflation will remain within the targets set by the Monetary Council. Since the last administration the BCB directors have mandates that do not necessarily coincide with the election calendar. What the markets pay more attention is for the mandate of the President of the BCB, although in the committee he has 1 of 9 votes. His term will end this year. Yesterday after the meeting was concluded the BCB announced a reduction of the Selic rate by 25 bps, in a split decision, 5 votes to 4. All new appointments of the current government voted for a bigger reduction, 50 bps, and all 5 directors that are in the BCB since before this government voted for a 25bps. It is a lot of coincidence to have such a result, especially given the fact the government routinely advocates for much lower rates. The main point here is that the BCB must maintain an independence of the government’s preferences, deciding technically. The market participants got quite skeptical. By the opening of the trades this morning the Brazilian Real and the Stock market went down, interest rates for longer tenors went up. It is very tempting, and some countries did it without success, to propel the economy by lowering rates as much as possible. Without controlling inflation properly, sooner or later rates will have to go up again and GDP will suffer. In a global market that is fiercely fighting for capital, with rates in major economies at high levels, there is little space to play with rates and inflation.   #ratesinbrazil #brazlianmarkets #brazlianeconomy #selic

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🔆 BUYSIDEBRAZIL | Weekly Report | We expect the interest rate to reach 13% at the end of the tightening cycle, with an exchange rate at R$5.70 in 2024 and R$5.60 in 2025 - 11/08 ✅ With strong performance in swing states, Donald #Trump won the presidential race in the United States. The expectation is that the results in the coming days will consolidate Trump’s party as the majority in both the House and Senate in the coming days, which would facilitate the implementation of policies discussed during the campaign. In this scenario, and in line with the soft-landing narrative, we believe the #Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest #rates. Thus, we revised our Fed Funds rate forecast from 3.25% to 3.75% in 2025, incorporating 25-bps cuts spaced between meetings. For 2026, we keep our expectation at 3.25%. ✅ Domestically, expectations regarding the fiscal framework and seasonal exchange flows should keep the #BRL at a more depreciated level. Thus, we believe the BRL will close the year at R$5.70, compared to the previous forecast of R$5.50. For 2025, we adjusted the forecast by the same magnitude, to R$5.60 (from R$5.40), expecting appreciation compared to 2024, mainly due to a larger interest rate differential with the United States and a reduced domestic risk premium (assuming a reasonable spending cut package). ✅ In monetary policy, we raised our forecast for the #Selic rate at the end of the tightening cycle from 12.5% to 13%. Inflation forecasts in the relevant horizon, reaching 3.6% in the second quarter of 2026, showed that the 200-bps total cycle incorporated in the Focus survey is not enough to converge inflation to the target, requiring a more restrictive tightening cycle. As we expect a more appreciated exchange rate than that used by the Central Bank in this #COPOM (R$5.75), we revised our terminal rate forecast for the cycle to 13%, with a 25-bps cut in December 2025, ending the year at 12.75%. For 2026, we expect the year to end at 10%. ✅ Finally, for #inflation, we kept our #IPCA forecast at 4.4%, with 2025 advancing to 4.0% due to #currency depreciation. Thus, we kept our end-of-2024 forecast at 4.4%. For 2025, without the downward transition effect of tariff flags and with higher interest rate and exchange rate scenarios, we revised our forecast to 4.0%, up from the previously projected 3.7%. For more information, enter www.buysidebrazil.com #FX #brazilianeconomy #emergingmarkets #financialmarkets Exibir tradução

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The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a Solana ETF. This makes Brazil the first country to do so, with VanEck and 21Shares's #Solana ETF filings remaining under regulatory review by the US SEC. The details are as follows: ▶ The ETF to be issued by QR Asset Management, Brazil’s leading asset manager with R$876 million in AUM ▶ Vortx will provide fund administration and fiduciary support ▶ The Solana ETF fund will trade on Brazil’s B3 stock exchange (where BlackRock’s #Bitcoin ETF was listed in March) ▶ The fund is expected to be launched within 90 days ▶ The ETF will reference the CME CF Solana Dollar Reference Rate, created by CF Benchmarks and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). -- This news not only elevates Brazil's position in the crypto ETF space, but it's also further evidence that the regional arms race within the crypto ETF market specifically is heating up. #SolanaETF #Digitalassets #Crypto

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MNI BCB Preview- May 24, Prior Guidance in Question: - Proprietary policy & market analysis of the Brazilian economy ahead of the rate decision - Detailed breakdown of sell-side analyst views plus market pricing & positioning - Exclusive interviews & analysis from our Policy team Download now with your free trial: https://lnkd.in/eaput42w #macroeconomics #globalmacro #brazileconomy #inflation

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Financial market analysts, consulted by the Central Bank of Brazil, are now forecasting an increase in the country’s basic interest rate, the Selic, starting this month. According to the latest Focus survey released this Monday (9th), the Selic rate is expected to reach 11.25% by the end of the year, up from the current 10.50%. Economists now predict that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will raise the Selic by 0.25 percentage points (pp) at its meeting on September 17-18. The total expected monetary tightening by the end of 2024 is now projected at 0.75 pp, with the market expecting 0.25 pp increases in each of the final three Copom meetings this year. #Pagsmile

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Did you know? Non-resident investors account for nearly 50% of B3’s total trading volume, despite representing only 0.1% of the accounts — a clear testament to the unique opportunities Brazil has to offer.   As one of the world's top 3 derivatives exchanges by volume, B3 is a hub of liquidity, diversity, and arbitrage potential. With nearly 1 billion contracts traded in August 2024, the Brazilian market continues to demonstrate unparalleled growth and opportunities.   At CM Capital, we offer non-resident clients advanced electronic trading solutions, supported by cutting-edge infrastructure and deep local expertise.   Partner with us to leverage the advantages of Brazil’s dynamic market: https://lnkd.in/dJS_gXMi #HFT #GlobalInvestment #Brazil #Opportunities #FinancialMarket

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