Michael Kovrig

When do threats to democracy cross the line into espionage and national security? How do unregistered foreign agents hurt our fragile liberties in 2024? "Who buttered up the pork of corruption that Menendez handed over to the American public? Why are none of us asking these questions? In major criminal operations, there are always multiple parties involved in the planning and execution of complex plots. So why do we pretend that Menendez and his wife, along with two businessmen, acted all on their own? Was his staff so incompetent they didn’t know he was taking private, questionable calls from Egyptian intelligence officers? As a diplomat, if I had had the Consul General or U.S. Ambassador hosting Egyptian intelligence officers at their office, I would have immediately reported this to diplomatic security or the FBI. As a matter of fact, in 2022 I did report one of my federal colleagues to a government agency when I suspected they had inappropriate contact with Russian state actors. It was my duty, both as an American and as an officer that had sworn an oath to the Constitution. Do the staff working at senators’ offices not have this sort of training, or are they simply not sufficiently skilled in exercising sound judgment when dealing with the intricate sensitivity of international relations?"

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IntelBrief: Russian Interference Tactics in European Democratic Processes Ramp Up The Soufan Center (TSC) https://lnkd.in/gHUAbpvi Bottom Line Up Front 🔸Multiple scandals have rocked the #EuropeanParliament as its June elections approach, including allegations of #Russianoperatives bribing #politicians to endorse positions favorable to the #Kremlin in Parliament and paying them to make Kremlin-aligned statements in a #Russia-aligned news outlet. 🔸#Russiandisinformation campaigns have become ubiquitous in Europe, with #Germany and #France targeted through false and misleading #Facebook ads, #doppelgangerwebsites, and #Ukraine-skeptic #narratives. 🔸In #Georgia and #Moldova, Russia has been actively trying to destabilize the countries’ #EU #accessionprocess through #covertoperations, #cyberattacks, and #disinformation. 🔸A leaked internal document from Russia outlines #Moscow’s use of the conflict in Ukraine to undermine #American #globalinfluence, disrupt #Westernpolitics, and strengthen #alliances with #China, #Iran, and #NorthKorea. 🔸Russian disinformation efforts aimed at #shaping #publicperception and #politicaldynamics across Europe are proliferating in the lead-up to the #EUparliamentaryelections. #russia #russianinfluenceoperations #europe #europeanelections #democracy #russianinterference

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A more proactive role for NATO or the formation of a multilateral security organization situated and focused on the Indo-Pacific is perhaps more necessary than at any point in recent history as the European and Indo-Pacific theatres become more interconnected. The risks for simultaneous conflicts are growing more acute with the PRC's continuous and likely increased material support in sustaining Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the strategic pact between Russia and North Korea, and the emerging China-Russia-North Korea-Iran axis—with dire security implications beyond these adversaries' peripheries. As I wrote in an analysis for the Global Taiwan Institute's Quarterly Connections (October 2022) on "NATO's 2022 'Strategic Concept' and Implications for Taiwan": "In the Madrid Summit Declaration issued on June 29 [2022] by NATO heads of state and governments participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council—the principal political decision-making body within NATO and the ultimate authority at the head of a network of committees—the 30-member security bloc issued an extraordinary statement calling out China: “We face systemic competition from those, including the People’s Republic of China, who challenge our interests, security, and values and seek to undermine the rules based international order.” This Declaration is remarkable not only for its directness about how NATO perceives the challenges emanating from China and for the fact that NATO has been a Europe-centered and Russia-focused security bloc from its founding in 1949, but also for how it aligns with increasing international concerns about China’s military ambitions and the resulting security implications beyond the Indo-Pacific. [...] In an era of strategic competition in which the core principles of international security are being contested, NATO must work even more closely with like-minded countries. As clearly noted by NATO in July after the Madrid Summit: 'This is why strengthening relations with the Asia-Pacific partners forms an important aspect of the NATO 2030 agenda.' Cooperation in several areas have been emphasized, including cyberspace, new technology countering disinformation, maritime security, climate change, and resilience. Over the next decade, Tailored Cooperation Packages, especially with the four Contact Countries, could be methods for improving coordination both directly and indirectly between NATO and Taiwan to promote peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the broader Western Pacific." Read the full analysis here:

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7/5/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3We82c8 1. Yoon to travel to U.S. next week for NATO summit, Indo-Pacific Command visit 2. N. Korea underscores swift, accurate weather forecasts for agriculture during monsoon season 3. Love lost? How Putin could spoil a Trump push to rekindle ties with Kim Jong Un 4. After a lull, South Korea is suddenly talking about going nuclear again 5. Police endorse charges for man who said ROK should accept North Korean invasion 6. FM highlights importance of 'mutually considerate' attitude in bilateral ties with Japan 7. N. Korean officials shake down illegal profiteers for bribes 8. N. Korean women's union promotes superiority of socialist system 9. N. Korea to import equipment for hydropower plants 10. Deepening Russia-North Korea ties test US-South Korea deterrence strategy 11. [Interview: Former Deputy Secretary Armitage] 'The deployment of North Korean troops will be a bloody experiment' 12. Putin’s diplomacy with North Korea deepens the global risk in Ukraine 13. Podcast: John Linton: Why Korean reunification could happen tomorrow

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Quoted in this Geneva Solutions article of Kasmira Jefford on the impact of #Trump on the #war in #Ukraine. (...)But with a dwindling supply of troops spread increasingly thin between its front lines, its reliance on a slow and uncertain supply of weapons from the west, and an enemy with bigger troop capacity recently bolstered by North Korean soldiers, #Ukraine faces an increasingly precarious situation. Its #European allies too are faced with a real challenge. Any move that is seen as a victory by #Putin carries the risk of further emboldening the Russian president and setting a worrying precedent for other countries eyeing turf wars with their neighbours, said Jean-Marc Rickli, head of global and emerging #risk at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. “It will send a strong signal that you can conquer and revise borders in #Europe by force, which is not a good sign for peace and for the future stability of the international system,” he told Geneva Solutions. Whatever #Trump’s move, it is unlikely to play to Europe’s favour, with the prospect of the US reducing or ceasing military support already raising major security concerns for a continent that has been largely dependent on its transatlantic ally ever since the Second World #War. It will also prove to be a crucial test for European solidarity that is already undermined by weakened #French and #German leadership, said Rickli. “Trump will probably make it very clear that he will bring down the number of US troops in Europe and that they have to pay more for their defence policies. That means the Europeans would have to actually take Europe’s security more seriously than they have until now,” he continued. “At present they are unable to speak with one voice nor to act cohesively." German chancellor Olaf #Scholz’ call to Putin last week – the first direct contact in almost two years – was testament to that, angering other Nato countries, who described it as a “strategic mistake” that weakened European unity and which #Zelensky likened to “opening Pandora’s box”. “Scholtz for domestic interests (access to cheap energy) has used the first opportunity once Trump has been elected to resume ties with Russia without consulting his European partners. This, in the end, weakens Europe and Putin is smart enough to play on that,” Rickli said.(...) (...)But it is a risky strategy that can also lead to misperceptions, warned Rickli. “That's why it could be very important to see whether channels of communication between, for instance, China and the US and between the US and Russia are maintained, because in such a volatile environment, indeed, a spark could actually unleash a major crisis.” Nor does Trump’s openly hostile stance towards multilateral organisations like the United Nations and its agencies in Geneva, which play a pivotal role in facilitating relations, bode well. “If President Trump withdraws... https://lnkd.in/ed_Mp7Rn

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This article examines the multifaceted interplay between conflict, border militarisation, and migration, which is essential for understanding the intricate complexities shaping the security landscapes within and beyond conflict-affected regions. African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)

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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 15, 2024 Aug 15, 2024 - #ISW Press 👁️ Institute for the Study of War understandingwar.org https://lnkd.in/gbtUakCp 📍Key Takeaways: Ukrainian officials are taking steps to consolidate and coordinate the management of ongoing Ukrainian operations in #KurskOblast while continuing to highlight Ukrainian advances. Russian #milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in some areas in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area. Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in #DonetskOblast, demonstrating that the Russian #militarycommand continues to prioritize advances in #easternukraine even as #Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast. The #Kremlin and the Russian military command are creating a complicated, overlapping, and so far, ineffective command and control (#C2) structure for the Russian response to the #Ukrainian #incursion in Kursk Oblast. The delayed establishment of a complicated Russian C2 structure in Kursk Oblast continues to highlight the fact that the Kremlin failed to plan for the possibility of a significant Ukrainian incursion into Russia. The Kremlin appears to have a more coordinated approach to securing its control over the Russian #informationspace than to addressing its military and C2 problems in Kursk Oblast. #AFU #ukrainianadvances #russianforces #ukrainianincursion #kurskregion

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My latest on #criticalminerals for The Diplomat. #SupplyChain strengthening + bilateral cooperation is important for 🇮🇳 to promote donestic #defense mfg and for 🇺🇸 to counter 🇨🇳. 3 ways countries can achieve this: 1. Strengthening existing multilats like MSP and iCET 2. Promoting tech partnership for processing 3. Leveraging available #DoD funding, reciprocal purchase agreements, + DFC loans for commercial minerals projects

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This is outstanding work by the United Nations Security Council’s #Yemen Panel. It doesn’t pull its punches. Here are some paragraphs from the opening summary that make it unmistakably clear that the international community must step up its efforts to confront and contain the #Houthis: “The Houthis exploited the regional situation and enhanced cooperation with the “axis of resistance”, in violation of the sanctions regime pursuant to Security Council resolution 2140 (2014). Information gathered by the Panel indicates that they have been receiving technical assistance, training, weapons and financial support from the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraqi armed groups and Hizbullah. Furthermore, joint operational centres have been set up in Iraq and Lebanon, with Houthi representation, aimed at coordinating joint military actions of the axis of resistance. “Moreover, the increasing collaboration between the Houthis and terrorist groups like Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is concerning. Both have agreed to cease internal conflict, transfer weapons and coordinate on attacks against the forces of the Government of Yemen. In addition, increased smuggling activities involving small arms and light weapons are observed between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab, with indications of shared military supplies or a common supplier. The sanctions imposed on the Houthis would be of limited impact unless appropriate measures are taken against all the violators of the sanctions regime. “The scale, nature and extent of transfers of diverse military materiel and technology provided to the Houthis from external sources, including financial support and training of its combatants, is unprecedented.”

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My latest policy brief for Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada on #Disinformation cooperation between #Canada #Japan #SouthKorea #Australia #US #TAIWAN #Ukraine #Poland Though geographically distant, Canada and Asia are on the frontlines of damaging disinformation campaigns by authoritarian states. These campaigns are intended to destabilize our democratic institutions and undermine our security to suit foreign actors’ interests by weakening the cohesiveness of our societies, which are based on the rule of law, resilient democratic institutions, and trust in information. As the dissemination and targeting of disinformation is not bound by national borders, Canada and partners in Asia – and beyond –have a deep-seated interest in mutually investing in the resilience of our democratic institutions through co-operation.   Big txs to Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Danielle Cave and Albert Zhang International Institute for Strategic Studies' Julia Voo Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) @Japan Institute of International Affairs Macdonald-Laurier Institute's @kyoko Kuwahara Asia Pacific Foundation's Vina Nadjibulla Erin Williams for their editorial insights and research which was used in crafting this brief. https://lnkd.in/gvpCJVqX

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"A transatlantic future is the only way to ensure our freedom and security." Secretary General Mark Rutte's brief remarks to the Atlantic Future Forum with this conclusion are worth reading or watching here: https://lnkd.in/e5HNCiuY

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Alliance of Autocracies Part 2: Understanding How the Broader Network Collaborates The growing global network of authoritarian regimes collaborates to bolster each other’s power and undermine democratic governance. It is a huge challenge for democracies that is not being taken seriously enough.

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New ICG report: 𝘼 𝙁𝙧𝙖𝙪𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙋𝙖𝙩𝙝 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙐𝙠𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙚’𝙨 𝙇𝙞𝙗𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙏𝙚𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙨 What’s new? Most of the land Ukraine reconquered late in 2022 remains under Kyiv’s control. Heavily mined, economically devastated and substantially depopulated, these areas are struggling to recover while investigations into Russian war crimes and cases of suspected collaboration are hampered by scarce resources and a flawed legal framework. Why does it matter? While the government’s attention is understandably absorbed by the war effort, Kyiv should not neglect its liberated areas, first because of the many urgent needs there and secondly as living proof that the Ukrainian state is better able to protect and provide for its civilians than Russian occupiers. What should be done? Ukrainian authorities, with foreign backing, should redouble efforts to clear mines, appraise local needs and rebuild channels of political representation. Fine-tuning anti-collaboration laws to avoid unfairly punishing those citizens who simply tried to survive will send an important message of support to others formerly and presently under Russian occupation. https://lnkd.in/eiHRp5A8

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Some comments on #drones for Breaking Defense Jean Marc Rickli, the head of global and emerging risks at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, told Breaking Defense that “#Ukraine is providing a powerful showcase for the #Shahed” and said that even if the #drones were defeated in the #Israeli attack, they proved a significant “cost asymmetry.” “Missiles to destroy these drones are much more expensive to use than the costs of these drones,” he said. “So, this contributes to imposing a more important cost on the defender while wearing down its capabilities. In the case of #Israel, even though all Iranian drones were destroyed, their destruction had a cost that was likely higher than the one of using these drones.” The calculation may look attractive to many international buyers. Rickli said, “#Iran’s potential market concerns countries that are subject to Western sanctions or do not fear Western sanctions or do not want to be bound by the conditions that Western countries impose when selling their #weapons.” It turns out that could refer to quite a few countries and organizations. https://lnkd.in/ecGdJY_C

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IAEA Information Circular 153 (INFCIRC/153) titled "The structure and content of agreements between the Agency and States required in connection with the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons" was promulgated in June 1972 is a key #safeguards document. It is the framework upon which the vast majority of safeguards agreements between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and States are built. INFCIRC/153 is not itself an agreement, just the model for an agreement text. Actual agreements are based on GOV/INF/276 which I will discuss tomorrow. INFCIRC/153 was produced in a series of meetings of States that is referred to as Committee 22. This Committee met in Vienna and discussed a very wide range of issues and recorded their common understanding of what was needed in the text that became INFCIRC/153. There was a tension in the negotiation between States' concern for their own sovereignty and the need for the IAEA to be given the authority to fulfil its mandate. States wanted safeguards to avoid getting in the way of their legitimate development of peaceful nuclear applications. In a clear break from INFCIRC/66 safeguards, under INFCIRC/153, nuclear material is the focus of the IAEA safeguards effort rather than facilities or equipment. The first paragraph makes clear each safeguards agreement's intent: BASIC UNDERTAKING 1. The Agreement should contain, in accordance with Article III. 1 of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, an undertaking by the State to accept safeguards, in accordance with the terms of the Agreement, on all source or special fissionable material in all peaceful nuclear activities within its territory, under its jurisdiction or carried out under its control anywhere, for the exclusive purpose of verifying that such material is not diverted to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.

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