Vasyl Myroshnychenko

My first article as a member of the Executive Committee of the New Diplomacy Project sets out why the Labour government should make Ukraine’s NATO membership its central foreign policy objective and how. The 100 year partnership agreement between the UK and Ukraine, which is currently being negotiated, offers a perfect opportunity to demonstrate a strong signal of intent towards this. There are no better security guarantees for Ukraine than NATO membership - anything else is an empty promise.

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In case of IHI (Imminince of Hostility Indicators) Lithuanian needs to be able to evacuate certain categories of people, children, and other categories of non deployable personel. Modern warfare, however can utilize people, who previously were considered undeployable, even certain types of physically challenged people can operate drones, electronic warfare, treating wounded etc. Evacuable personell will be very limited. So because of small populations of the Baltic countries, most citizens need to be trained to resist in one way or another. Women are fighting in Ukraine, that threshold has been crossed and we cannot count them out. A deep discussion needs to take place on who will be expected to serve. Levée en masse - needs to be redefined, but utilized. All citizens capable of it will have to defend the country to the best of their abilities. https://lnkd.in/gbvTFFfG

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📈 Summary of General Syrsky's Interview for The Guardian: Assessment of Potential Increase in Russian Troop Numbers The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, shared important information in an interview with the British publication "The Guardian" regarding the plans of the Russian military command. According to him, by the end of 2024, Russia plans to increase the number of its "Joint Grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations" to 690,000 servicemen. This figure has garnered significant interest and requires detailed analysis. 1. Current Situation Currently, the number of Russian troops on Ukrainian territory is approximately: - 525-530 thousand servicemen. - The reserve component consists of 60-65 thousand. 2. Plans of the Russian Command By the end of 2024, the Russian military-political leadership plans to: - Increase the grouping to 690,000 servicemen. - Expand the reserve component to 100,000. 3. Possible Methods of Implementation To achieve these numbers, it will likely be necessary to: - Conduct another mobilization, potentially calling up 250-300 thousand new servicemen. - Sustain a high level of current losses due to their specific methodology of conducting military operations. 4. Conclusions Implementing these plans will require significant resources and efforts: - Mobilization and further buildup of troops could be a major challenge for the Russian economy and society. - High troop numbers require constant replenishment of personnel due to significant losses. Additional Aspects Recruitment Problems Currently, the Russian military is manned through a mixed approach, including volunteers, contract soldiers, and forcibly mobilized servicemen. However, even this method does not always ensure the required numbers. High Level of Losses The level of losses remains consistently high due to ongoing offensive actions. To substantially increase numbers, it is necessary not only to compensate for current losses but also to continuously add new forces. These data are critically important for understanding possible changes in the course of the war and preparing for likely actions from the enemy. ✍️ Information and Analytical Center of Ukraine https://lnkd.in/dYAU_Ac9 #war #AFU #analytics #Ukraine #Russia #Syrsky #TheGuardian #defenseoffense

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In the face of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Stratbase said Poland has become a key player in Europe’s defense, much like the Philippines’ role in regional security against China’s actions in the West Philippine Sea. “Through this exchange of strategies and experiences, we reinforce our shared commitment to upholding a rules-based international order, working together to secure a stable and prosperous future for our region,” Stratbase Group CEO Dindo Manhit said. Since formalizing ties in 1973, the Philippines and Poland have steadily expanded cooperation across various fields including trade, economy and defense. He said the Philippines should participate in more strategic engagements with other friendly states in the EU, noting that “the bonds between the Philippines and Poland are a testament to what can be achieved when nations unite around shared values and common goals.” https://lnkd.in/gxs-SURB

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Sound familiar? Of course it does—just as predicted. These bases are not being built out as an idle threat. They exist to effect Putin’s Phase 2 move to the west. But you don’t need to worry about this if we stop Russia IN Ukraine. Because if we do indeed stop Russia in Ukraine, Phase 2 (which would eventually escalate to #nuclearwar ☢️) will never happen. It will simply never happen. If we work to effect an outcome that Ukraine defines as a victory, that’s where this ends. With each passing month, the economic situation and political stability within Russia erodes. Increasing at an increasing rate. If we don’t support Ukraine, the wheels come off. Everybody dies. #THINK Clear? #understandingputin #kremlinology #howrussiaworks #armukraine #eurosecurity #globalsecurity #nationalsecurity #stayfocused #standwithukraine 🇺🇦

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#ESG_Friday SECURITY – DEFENCE Twenty-two countries, together with UA and EU, commit to coordinating and accelerating efforts to meet Ukraine’s security needs The leaders of 22 countries - the United States, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom - as well as Ukraine and the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission, committed, on Thursday 11 July, in the margins of the NATO summit to the ‘Ukraine Compact’ with a view to “coordinating and accelerating our collective efforts to meet Ukraine’s comprehensive security needs”. The Compact comes a year after G7 members announced their intention to formalise security agreements and arrangements with Ukraine. All the members of the Compact have signed a security agreement or similar commitment with Ukraine. The Czech Republic and Slovenia have also endorsed the text, but do not yet have security agreements with Ukraine. “This document is a success for Ukraine, because it develops our security architecture. We will certainly meet every objective - we have enough energy to do so”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky promised in front of the media in Washington. He pointed out that his country had signed 23 security commitments to date with the 22 countries mentioned above, and the EU. “Through this Compact, we declare our enduring intent and commitment to ensure Ukraine can successfully defend its freedom, independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity today and deter acts of aggression in the future”, say the signatories of the Compact. The participants of the Compact undertake to support Ukraine’s “immediate defence and security needs”, including “through the continued provision of security assistance and training, modern military equipment, and defence industrial and necessary economic support”. This will be done bilaterally, but also through existing multilateral mechanisms, such as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) and its Capability Coalitions, ‘NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine’ (NSATU), and the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine).

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🦉ME: The approval of the entire #USCongress (just through) of $61B further #Ukrainianaid necessitates a revision of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report below. The provision of #ATACMS, #ammunition, 155mm #artilleryshells, the coming #airdefencesystems and the promised #F16s will give #Ukraine not only the capacity to defend itself, but also mount a #Ukrainianoffensive probably next year. The #Sovietera #armsstoragebases are being depleted limiting #Russianoffensivecapacity by 2025, according to The Jamestown Foundation (citing Kremlin.ru, February 20; Globalaffairs.ru, February 23; Kremlin.ru, February 29; Kremlin.ru, March 1; T.me/Medvedev_telegram, March 14, The Moscow Times, August 7, 2023; TASS, November 22, 2023; Vedomosti, December 30, 2023; Interfax, January 31; TASS, February 20) See ‘Russia Exhausts Soviet-Era Arms Storage Bases’, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 21 Issue: 40, March 14, 2024 05:28 PM Age: 1 month https://lnkd.in/ge7eiaEV

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In the West we strongly question Putin’s policy regarding Ukraine. What has he won with his war against NATO membership for Ukraine? In stead he’s confronted with two new NATO members , Zweden and Finland. That is the mantra. However what about another question; what have “the West” won with this war? Russian unprecedented engagement with China and now North Korea. A world that has never been more divided and dangerous since WWII. And particularly Europe; We are the biggest losers , economically and in terms of security. An enemy has been created, that since the end of the Cold War, never was. It forces us to our own security policy and militarization of our societies. Because Europe should be capable to defend itselve in a future whithout an US security guaranty .

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🤝 At the Washington NATO Summit Allied Heads of State and Government endorsed the long-term projects of the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) for Ukraine*. The projects are focused on post-war recovery and reconstruction, development of institutional capacities of the security and defense sector of Ukraine, and transition towards interoperability with NATO countries. One of the projects is the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC), located in Bydgoszcz, Poland. JATEC is the first joint NATO-Ukraine organization that will focus on learning the lessons of the Russian war against Ukraine. The Center will also increase interoperability between the Allies and Ukraine. Allied Defence Ministers agreed to establish JATEC at the NATO-Ukraine Council in February 2024. *NATO Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) for Ukraine is the key practical cooperation framework between the Alliance and Ukraine. The reviewed CAP was adopted at the Madrid Summit 2022. At the Vilnius Summit in July 2023, the Allies agreed to transform CAP into a multi-year programme for Ukraine and to continue providing assistance to Ukraine in the short, medium, and long term. At the Washington Summit 2024, the Allies announced a pledge of long-term security assistance to Ukraine and intend to provide €40 billion in funding over the next year.

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🎯 JATEC & the JALLC-UKR Initiative 🎯 In this context, there is potentially scope for the NATO JALLC–UKR Initiative to provide Lessons Learned and Analysis support to these efforts through existing and new analysis products, training, and the JALLC-UKR Initiative Information Centre. As such, it will become critical to ensure (potential) Lessons for #NATO are captured and collated in one single place (i.e. the NATO Lessons Learned Portal) where they can be properly analysed and exploited. JALLC Analysis is uniquely equipped to be able to analyse this type of data to ensure that the Alliance can adapt at the speed of relevance. Read more about these activities on the JALLC's dedicated JALLC-UKR Initiative area 👉 https://lnkd.in/dWtKA4F2  #WeAreNATO

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So yesterday Lithuania’s government introduced a new initiative to finance the defense sector – defense bonds, and I had a chance to comment on the national TV LRT. https://shorturl.at/scq1d I'm including some thoughts on the instrument below: I think the instrument itself is not bad, however the way it was packaged and presented requires improvement (let’s not lower our standards by saying that “at least they’re doing something” 😊) First of all, let’s be fair and not call it “bonds”, as these instruments are still government savings certificates (“taupymo lakštai“), only re-named “defense bonds”. The key differentiation from the normal bonds instruments is that if you redeem early i.e. ahead of the maturity date, in contrast to bonds, you will lose the accrued interest. The difference to previous savings certificates though is that now not only individuals will be able to invest into these “bonds”, but also companies. You could argue about companies’ motivation though, as already from next year their corporate tax will be increased by 1% to contribute to funding defense sector, hence they already will be making their contribution by default. The certificates will offer annual 2% interest rate. We can also have a long debate, whether this is sufficient or not, considering that previously government certificates offered above 3% rate, however retail investors will no longer have a choice, as only defense bonds will be available. Let’s just say I would be very curious to know whether there was any market research conducted amongst the potential investors or financial institutions to determine the market rate, however my understanding is that it was determined by the Lithuania’s parliament. Despite a couple of media articles, there is still little information about the initiative, and this needs to be promoted and advertised more to the wider public. Lithuanians are already donated huge amounts of money to non-government initiates such as Blue/Yellow, which are working constantly to provide the necessary tools and support for Ukrainian defense forces, and considering how well these initiatives are promoted, I’m afraid, currently the trust in the non-governmental support initiatives is much higher. I don’t think that the timing of the release accidently coincides with the upcoming parliamentary election in Lithuania, which is happening on Sunday. I think we are late by at least 2 years, and it’s unfortunate that these type of decisions are still driven by political agendas rather than timely assessments of our country’s geopolitical conditions and its economic / defense interests. Overall, I would call it not an investment instrument rather a social instrument to promote the care about our country’s national defense. The current and upcoming new government will need to work hard on the media / communications campaigns to promote it, as it will be competing with the Lithuanians’ funding and donating for Ukraine’s support activities. 

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The geographical distances in the Baltics are small, and if Russia seized Gotland in a crisis, it could dominate the Baltic Sea region. This would make it very difficult for the west to provide reinforcement to the Baltic states by sea or by air. It’s not only Sweden that is concerned. Lithuania borders both the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad (which itself has become increasingly militarised) and Belarus, it is concerned that it could be attacked, and would then be physically isolated from the rest of the Baltics. For now, it seems, Russia is determined to create suspense around its intentions in the Baltics — a region that holds both Nato’s greatest assets and vulnerabilities. As a result, the Baltic region has become a playground in Russia’s shadow war. https://lnkd.in/eWxQGMGR

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