Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney

On US president-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, "It’s not clear whether Trump is proposing that on day one, [whether] US tariffs on China will go from their current average level of 20 percent to 30 percent, or to 70 percent from the 60 percent that he’s previously mooted," UTS:ACRI Director James Laurenceson tells The Australian.   He says that the threat of another “additional” 10 percent tariff on US imports from China, of itself, won’t have much direct impact on the Australian economy but notes that it will put pressure on Australia’s political relationship with the US.   He says that it is in Australia’s national interests to come out in opposition to Trump’s proposals, particularly when Trump’s threat to put 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico comes in retaliation for issues unrelated to trade.    “How Trump will react to that is anyone’s guess. But what will be inevitable is that the gap between Canberra and Washington on economic, foreign, and strategic policy, which Foreign Minister [Penny] Wong and Treasurer [Jim] Chalmers tell us are increasingly inseparable, will grow.” Read: https://bit.ly/3ZunF0I

The People's Republic of China's (PRC) national policy, Made in China 2025 (MIC2025), is due to end next year.    UTS:ACRI Associate Professor - Research Marina Zhang tells Nature Portfolio that the US' tech restrictions on the PRC could make it difficult for Beijing to meet its MIC2025 targets in areas of relative weakness, including semiconductors, high-precision machinery and new materials.    She notes that PRC firms and research institutes have intensified their collaborative efforts in semiconductor development since the US export controls but the PRC still lags behind others owing to a talent gap and a lack of access to key materials and tools.    A/Professor Zhang expects that the PRC will continue playing to its strengths in new energy vehicles, renewable energy and biopharmaceuticals, while also investing more in semiconductors and high-precision machinery. Read: https://bit.ly/4g7yATr

The November 18 meeting between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, regional responses to the prospects of US protectionism and Canberra’s balancing of PRC trade and US defence ties are among the issues discussed by UTS:ACRI Director James Laurenceson in a Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) Radio National Breakfast interview. Listen [43.50]: https://ab.co/3AP1N6w

The framing of current discussions around AUKUS and ramifications for Chinese-Australians, particularly first-generation migrants from the People's Republic of China (PRC), are discussed by UTS:ACRI Deputy Director Wanning Sun in Perspectives, UTS:ACRI's commentary series.   Read: https://bit.ly/4euzRCO

Critics of the Australian Labor government's 'stabilisation' agenda with the People's Republic of China (PRC) "contend it reflects a 'dangerous element of naïve and fuzzy thinking.' ... But the critics are presenting a cartoon version of the government’s approach."   Writing in the Australian Institute of International Affairs' Australian Outlook, UTS:ACRI Director James Laurenceson states, "The fact is that the government has not reversed a single substantive policy position of the previous Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison Coalition governments related to the challenges that China presents."   He notes, "What has been abandoned is the Morrison’s government’s abrasive diplomacy... But it is simply untrue to claim that this equates to the government having been scared into 'public silence.' There is little more public than a media release. Yet since becoming foreign minister, Penny Wong has issued 32 media releases critical of Beijing, a rate of more than one per month." Read: https://bit.ly/3Z2Wnhp

Australian universities' efforts to tackle foreign interference, the importance of research collaboration with scholars from the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the economic/soft power benefits of welcoming Chinese students are among a range of topics discussed by UTS:ACRI Director James Laurenceson in a podcast interview hosted by The Group of Eight.   Professor Laurenceson says that "the evidence is overwhelming… that Australian universities are doing a fantastic job" in managing foreign interference risks.    He also notes that if "we want to stay at that knowledge creation frontier… we have to remain connected to the big players".    Professor Laurenceson adds that Chinese students not only make an important economic contribution to the nation, but have significant soft power value by serving as "our best ambassadors".   Watch: https://bit.ly/4epgT0j

"The author in discussions in 2023 and 2024 with a range of senior Taiwanese defence and foreign affairs officials and analysts from Taipei-based think tanks found that there was a broad consensus in Taiwan which welcomed the development of AUKUS but which at the same time saw potential long-term delays and obstacles that could limit AUKUS’ immediate relevance to Taiwan. Taiwanese defence and foreign affairs officials acknowledged that nuclear-powered submarine element of AUKUS was many years away from fruition... However, they saw potential value in Pillar 2 of AUKUS [as well as] the partnership more broadly as being a means to commit Australia to support the US in the defence of Taiwan in the future."   UTS:ACRI Adjunct Fellow and former Australian representative to Taiwan Kevin Magee writes on what AUKUS means for Taiwan in Perspectives, UTS:ACRI's commentary series.   Read: https://bit.ly/40znTVb

Writing on US President-elect Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ policy agenda in The Diplomat, UTS:ACRI researcher Corey Lee Bell and head of analysis Elena Collinson state that "By emphasising advanced tech industrial sovereignty not only at the expense of China, but also to the potential detriment of Washington’s partners and allies’ economic interests, 'made in America' policies could fundamentally alter the calculus of technologically advanced nations hitherto willing to invest in US partnerships and operations and absorb the opportunity costs of cooperating with US policies aimed at constraining China’s technological rise. It could even have a broader impact on the overall integrity of the US alliance system".    Read: https://bit.ly/3Aq2QK9   The article builds on the findings of a recent UTS:ACRI report by the authors, 'The China factor in Japan and South Korea’s rapprochement: Implications for Australia': https://bit.ly/40pQcW0

One fallout from a trade war between the US and the People's Republic of China (PRC) could be a loss of Chinese consumer confidence, which would affect recovering sales of Australian wine, lobster and beef, UTS:ACRI Director James Laurenceson tells The Australian Financial Review.    However, Professor Laurenceson also cautioned against over-egging the impact, saying the PRC had become less reliant on export income as its domestic economy grew:    He said Chinese exports to the US had fallen in recent years and only made up 15 percent of China’s total exports. Total exports as a proportion of Chinese gross domestic product had also fallen to about 20 per cent over the past decade.   Professor Laurenceson estimated Chinese exports to the US now only made up about 3 percent of GDP.   “It’s a negative hit for the Chinese economy, but I wouldn’t state it is catastrophic,” he said.   While tariffs would be inflationary for American consumers, he said economies adapted to trade wars, such as lowering exchange rates or selling goods to other markets, such as Australia.   “If that happened, we could expect some spillover in cheaper Chinese goods in Australia,” he said. Read: https://bit.ly/3AwwvRL

“The rise of BRICS+ introduces both risks and opportunities for Australia. As a major supplier of critical minerals, Australia has leverage in negotiations with both the United States and China. However, the growing competition between these two great powers and the networks behind them could expose Australia to significant economic and strategic vulnerabilities."   UTS:ACRI Associate Professor – Research Marina Zhang writes on the expansion of BRICS to BRICS+ – starting with the core emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2010, adding South Africa in 2011, and most recently welcoming Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates in January 2024 – and the potential ramifications it could have for Australia’s critical minerals sector in the Lowy Institute’s Interpreter. Read: https://bit.ly/4efvWtm