“As for available soybeans, the grain scarcity has driven the prices to increase so far, with origination premiums rising +200 points in 6 months…”
Matheus Pereira is the founder of Pátria Agronegócios, a consulting firm specialized in soybeans and corn. Pereira has a degree in agronomy at the Federal University of Goiás and agribusiness at Western Illinois University, with an MBA from Edinburgh Business School.
AgriBrasilis – What has driven the rise in soybean prices?
Matheus Pereira – The foreign exchange market has been the main precursor to the rises in the Brazilian market for 2025 soybeans. As for available soybeans, the grain scarcity has driven the prices to increase so far, with origination premiums rising +200 points in 6 months.
AgriBrasilis – Why are trading companies having difficulty with grain origination?
Matheus Pereira – In terms of origination of available grains, the Central region of Brazil is experiencing a shortage. There is no product available to be traded on demand. Demand exists, but supply is restricted.
AgriBrasilis – When are sales expected to accelerate?
Matheus Pereira – Given the completion of planting in Brazil, we believe that a large part of the production base will advance with new sales, especially for 2025 soybeans.
“In terms of origination of available grains, the Central region of Brazil is experiencing a shortage”
AgriBrasilis – How has the weather affected sowing?
Matheus Pereira – We had a planting season in Brazil marked by a lack of rain from September to mid-October and a dizzying acceleration of field work from mid-October to mid-November. In the 2H of November, the Central region of Brazil has had difficulty completing planting due to excessive rainfall. However, almost 70% of the summer soybean in Brazil was sown within the regular period.
AgriBrasilis – What are the estimates for the 2024/25 soybean season production?
Matheus Pereira – PÁTRIA estimates 166 million tonnes to be harvested in Brazil in 2024/25, so far. New revisions should come out soon.
AgriBrasilis – How should Trump’s victory affect the Brazilian soybean market?
Matheus Pereira – Trump brings the feeling that the trade conflict between the US and China could be ignited again. However, this is a point that is already stressed in the market, so this is nothing new.
The main factor impacting the agricultural market has been Trump’s connection with the fossil fuel market. The Trump administration has historically shown a certain aversion to encouraging biofuels, which has led to the perception of a decline in the use of corn for ethanol and soybeans for biodiesel in the US. This factor is seen as negative for the international market, increasing the feeling of a greater supply of these grains in natura.
For Brazil, the continued tension between Trump and Xi Jinping brings hope that China will continue to concentrate on the demand for Brazilian soybeans. This has been observed since 2019, when China has been buying everything it can from Brazil, before turning its new acquisitions over to the US.
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