Daniel Fox-Davies

US copper imports accelerate in wake of CME squeeze Reuters Andy Home The May squeeze on the CME copper contract has passed but the impact on global flows of the red metal is still playing out. U.S. imports of copper have surged after traders capitalised on a rare arbitrage window that opened between the CME and the London Metal Exchange (LME) contracts at the height of the squeeze on CME short position holders. The result has been a redistribution of global exchange inventory with CME stocks rebuilding from depleted levels and both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) inventory falling. #copper #metals #basemetals #commodities #mining CME Group London Metal Exchange #trade #markets

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London Metal Exchange week is always a good opportunity to take the pulse of the global metals markets. An unexpected highlight for me was the investment panel on the afternoon of the LME's Monday seminar. Here's my take on the discussion. Energy transition story rekindles fund interest in metals: https://lnkd.in/e9SUvrJ4

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📊 FX Markets Overview: Monday Highlights 🔹 USD Index: Consolidated, leading to subdued activity in FX markets (except SEK for G10). 🔹 USD/JPY: Stabilized around 160.80, maintaining above the key psychological support of 160. 🔹 US Markets: Equity and fixed income markets showed little movement, preparing for key events later in the week. 🔹 Europe: French election outcome caused some volatility, with French bonds, credit, and equities slightly outperforming. 🔹 EUR/USD: Rejected 1.0840, softening to 1.0832. 🔹 MXN: Broke through 18.00 resistance on political headlines. 🔹 Outlook: Cautious Asian session expected as markets await upcoming US catalysts. 🔹 Key Event (SGT): 22:00 – Fed Chair Powell testifies to Senate Banking. 🔗 Source: https://lnkd.in/gtcdQVEg Sizer Metals Pte Ltd Sizer Metals Pvt. Ltd. Convera #sizermetals #sizermetalspteltd #abizertambawala #metalindustry #Forex #MarketUpdate #USD #JPY #EUR #MXN #Fed #Investing

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Not only has the price of oil been falling, but so has Dr Copper (famously nicknamed for its sensitivity to business cycles). Copper has fallen around 20% since late May. This is even with the support of the energy transition which provides more demand for the base metal. This could be an indication that growth surprises on the downside and the probability of recessions increase. #parmenioninvestment #markets #economy #investing

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=> Brazil’s fiscal challenges are real, but the market’s pricing of Brazil’s rate hikes looks aggressive => DI curve now implies nearly 300bps of tightening between now and June 2025 – in a situation when Brazil’s ex-ante real policy rate is already among the highest in EM Source: Bloomberg LP

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It is easy to see why iron ore is NOT priced in AUD and or CNY/AUD. It is easy to see why Australia has no significant commodity trading market. It is easy to see why Australia has no significant currency swaps and derivative hedging market for the primary pairs of trade. It is easy to see why Australia is one total loser of a nation state. It is easy to see why Australian financiers would not make it anywhere else.

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Zeina Rizk, CFA, CFA Co-head of Fixed income at Amwal Capital shares her views on the IEA report and the impact on oil markets. She also discusses her thoughts on GCC and Turkey's Capital Markets. #fixedincome #investments #mena #gcc #views #investmentopportunities #financialmarkets https://shorturl.at/DvTAw

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We are proud to have acted as financial advisors to Peabody Energy on its acquisition of Anglo American plc’s steelmaking coal portfolio, a transaction that accelerates Peabody’s strategic re-weighting towards seaborne metallurgical coal.   The transaction, valued at up to A$5.8bn (US$3.8bn), showcases MA Moelis Australia's expertise in the Metals & Mining sector and our seamless cross-border execution capabilities in partnership with Moelis & Company. Adam Bill, Managing Director, said “This is a landmark transaction for Peabody and for the global Moelis Metals & Mining business. It underscores our ability to deliver innovative solutions for complex M&A transactions in an industry that plays a critical role in global energy and steelmaking.” William Hughes Jordi Montaner Caine Day Douglas Pierson Ashley Chen Julian Richardson Aishwarya Agnihotri

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The price of High-Grade Continuous Copper (HG.F) has dropped 7.80% in the past month and 16.6% from its recent high back in the second half of May.  To assess the damage, we turn to the Point and Figure chart and find the false breakout at $4.96, the ceiling of resistance at $5.06 and the ensuing pullback that has materialized. Copper has already retraced 50% of its move in its recent rally earlier this spring and broke below a prior support level at $4.45 and is now approaching a key support level at the $4.23 to $4.27 area. To sign up for our reports or register to trial our advisor-only platform please follow the link: https://lnkd.in/gJQREw3P #SIACharts #bigdata #datascience #Ai #investing #fintech #wallstreet #wealth #stockmarket #profit #leadership #innovation #analytics #productivity #money #markets #technology

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This figure masks the tailwinds from energy price base effects, but shows that on a headline basis we’re mostly there in terms of getting inflation back under control. On a core basis we still have the last mile to go from the 3-4% range all the way down to target as wage growth and service price inflation remain stubbornly high across much of the world. I have, however, become less worried about the last mile, as I have started to think of sticky services inflation and wage growth more as a *relative price adjustment* than a sign of truly persistent inflation in the general price level. What do I mean by that? The pandemic and energy price shock caused a dislocation of two key relative prices which have only partly unwound; the relative prices of goods vs. services, and the relative prices of labour vs. output (real wages). Goods vs. services: During the pandemic, there was a strong shift in consumption away from services to goods, pushing up the price of the latter and interrupting a decades-long trend of service prices outpacing core goods prices. The plunge in the relative price of services has only partly unwound and probably has further to go before reaching a sustainable equilibrium now that consumption patterns are normalising. Labour vs. output: Real wages took a hit during the post-pandemic inflation surge due to nominal wage rigidities, particularly where economies suffered negative terms of trade shocks. Again, real wages have recovered somewhat, but remain below their pre-pandemic trends. As the energy price shock dissipates, and to the extent profit margins widened as a result of the inflation surprise, we will likely see real wages catch back up. Of course, the two adjustments are related since services tend to be more labour-intensive than goods, and therefore have higher wage pass-through. This complicates policymakers’ task. The relative price adjustment is necessary for the allocative efficiency in the economy, but it’s difficult to accommodate it without tolerating above-target inflation for a period of time (the other option is to force even further deflation in goods prices, which risks weighing unnecessarily on economic activity and undershooting inflation targets in the future). So far, these relative price adjustments have taken place without de-railing inflation expectations or major output losses. My gut feeling is that central banks can probably take their foot off the brake at this point. Core inflation will dissipate on its own once the relative price adjustment is complete. Figures from the BIS AER, which continues to shape my thinking on inflation and monetary policy: https://lnkd.in/ef6bGa7K

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Copper's Flag Breakout: Impact of China Stimulus 📈 Copper prices are surging, breaking out after China’s unexpected stimulus measures. This move formed a classic flag pattern—a sharp rally followed by a period of consolidation. Traders should look for a breakout above the flag, potentially extending to the 8,640 region. Pro Tip: As long as the flag pattern remains intact, the bullish bias stays strong. However, keep a close watch on global market sentiment and economic updates from China, as they could quickly shift the outlook. Tight stops below the flag's low are crucial to protect against reversals. 🚩 #Copper #ChinaStimulus #FlagPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrading #Commodities #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdates

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Macro Views - 24th July US interest rates markets, having settled near the recent lows, await the release of GDP data tomorrow and the Fed's preferred inflation PCE numbers on Friday. US 10yr treasury is at 4.25% (+5bps over last week) and 2yr is at 4.45% (+1bp). Expectations of September and December rate cuts are built in, notwithstanding the presidential election during last quarter. To my mind, the election event poses reasonable risk of Fed deciding to wait till December for the cut. USD is a bit stronger with DXY at 104.40. The risk-on sentiment has taken a hit with US tech earnings way below expectations, e.g., Tesla and Alphabet. Indian markets took the union budget in their stride and recovered swiftly even after an increase in capital gains structure. A 2.5% increase in LTCG for equities is not much but the government looks set on a path for Direct Tax Code and LTCG may increase further in next few years. Even then the retail investor may believe that equity is the better asset class. This step plus the taxation on F&O segment coupled with muted earnings so far may instill some sanity in equities. We may see a time correction over next year as we saw after Nov '21 peak. USDINR touched all time high at 83.70 where it is being "held". The anchoring to CNY may continue in near future. The FPI inflow in equities (+5bn YTD) and in bonds (+10bn YTD) remains steady with the bond inflows assured on back of the bond index inclusion. The prudent fiscal deficit gave comfort to bond markets and 10yr Gsec is slightly soft at 6.96%. Next, the market will watch out for inflation, especially food and services inflation. The budget hit the Indian gold bulls as the import duties were slashed and the prices immediately corrected by 5-6%. In my opinion, the step was taken not to encourage investment in gold but in view of an increase in gold smuggling and the duty's failure to decrease gold demand meaningfully, causing a higher load on the forex outflow. Its even better now for Indians to buy gold now as the further room to cut duties is very limited and the global uptrend in gold prices may continue USDJPY touched a low of 154.60 on back of expectations of rate hike of 10bps by the BOJ and also a display of firm commitment to prevent JPY weakness beyond 160. This time the intervention was more effective as it was timed with data release favouring dollar weakness (CPI release two weeks back). Coupled with lower dollar rates expectation and a surge in JGB yields, some unwinding of the carry trade has taken place.    China failed again to provide any meaningful stimulus as the Third Plenum ended. Only a 10bps cut in rates was delivered by PBoC. This was not taken well by commodities markets. Iron ore fell to $100 (recent bottom), base metals also fell with Aluminum at $2295(-17% from May-end), Zinc at $2688 (-14%) and Copper at $9166 (-17%). The base metals are now coming into buying zone while iron ore may fall further on back of Chinese slowdown.

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Gladiator Resources Ltd ' ISR announcement presents both promising opportunities and noteworthy risks for investors to consider in the uranium sector. Read More https://lnkd.in/gXiDnMSv #InvestmentAnalysis, #UraniumMarket, #ISRMethod, #FinancialRisks, #InvestmentOpportunities

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Today in FX - UK Wage growth remains elevated in April . US Powell speaks 1.2550 £/$ 1.1640 £/Euro 1.0785 Euro/$ 156.45 $/Yen 9.03 £/Yuan Markets Await Big Data Monday's trading session was on the quieter side. The general bias was towards selling US dollars. Both the pound and euro managed to edge higher against the greenback. GBPUSD has now established itself firmly back above the $1.25 handle and looks to be probing towards the $1.26 mark. The GBPEUR pair is also pushing higher, this comes after it nearly broke into the €1.15s during last week's BoE announcement. The pair appears to have regained its composure and grinds back towards €1.17. This week's big data comes from the US where their latest April read will help traders and dealers fine tune their expectations for rate cuts. The main release is tomorrow's CPI numbers but today there will be information regarding the producer price index today which is a metric that gauges the costs of inputs into production i.e., materials. This data point could be important for the greenback depending upon its outcome. Weaker data is worse for the US dollar, on the flip side, a stronger read gives the market a reason to buy USD. 

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Sarytogan Graphite Limited has picked up $2.6m in equity from a European bank at double the market price. The money will be spent on its graphite project in central Kazakhstan. $SGA #BULLSNBEARSWA Brisbane Times https://lnkd.in/gJJPrG3d

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Fitch Ratings has affirmed JSC Almalyk Mining And Metallurgical Complex rating at 'BB-' with a stable outlook. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of JSC Almalyk Mining And Metallurgical Complex at 'BB-' with a stable outlook (in line with Fitch's international rating for #Uzbekistan). Fitch assesses the combine's standalone credit profile (SCP) as 'b+', reflecting its small but growing scale of operations, commodity diversification across copper, gold, zinc and silver, favourable core asset cost position, long reserve life and moderate leverage. #AGMK's production (149,000 tonnes of copper and 0.5 million ounces of gold) is higher than Hudbay's (132,000 tonnes of copper and 0.2 million ounces of gold) but significantly lower than FQM and Freeport, which are among the world's top 10 copper producers. FQM produced 707,678 tonnes in 2023, while Freeport produced 1.2 million tonnes. The #Yoshlik project is a landmark copper, gold and silver project for the plant and the country's mining industry, which will double production and diversify the company's assets. The $4.8 billion first phase of the project includes a new mine and processing plant that will significantly increase copper production to 264,000 tonnes (t) by 2026 (up 78% from 2023) and gold production to over 800,000 ounces by 2026 (up 50%). The second phase, which includes the construction of a new copper smelter at approximately $1 billion, is expected to increase #AGMK's smelting capacity. Until the smelter is completed, the company will sell copper concentrate.

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📢 Geiger Counter Investment Fund released its monthly factsheet for August 2024, featuring commentary from co-fund managers Robert Crayfourd and Keith Watson on developments in the #uranium sector and updates on leading players including Cameco Corporation and Kazatomprom. 🏅 The Fund reported a #NAV of 49.81p at month end, and total gross assets at £84.2m ⚛ Read the full factsheet here: #equity #commodity #nuclear

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