Ashish Marwah

FoMo becomes FEAR!! The markets this year have traded very well buoyed by expectations of fed cuts with Equity markets much stronger... Bond markets stable and stronger, and credit/risk markets also compressed to tight levels everybody's been happy everybody's been paid well and everybody is long I would go so far as to say that fear of missing out has been a very big contributor to people's market allocation with the S&P & NASDAQ both doing well and as a result many other correlated markets doing well (bitcoin EM ect) That looks like it's coming to an end...and the easy money has been made. Valuations at very toppy levels with long-term PE ratios at or around all time highs and the FED looking like it doesn't have the ability to cut rates because inflation in the States is much higher than targeted Just to make readers more uncomfortable GGG (Gargours Global Gaze ) a small group of interested people that chat about economics and politics had a guest speaker David Murrin this week.... (pm me if you want to subscribe [email protected]) who outlined his worst case scenario as: The Middle East conflict will erupt with Iran being attacked by Israel in order to destroy its nuclear program once and for all, gold and oil both rally enormously markets sell off Treasuries trade as a safe haven and the dollar gets stronger ... however this does not bode well for equities and all other risk assets with ME conflict leading to significant global sell offs Today's Vix gauge shows that many investors are not necessarily selling their long positions yet... but are beginning to hedge using put options and other hedging strategies I think it's time that readers reassess whether or not Equity markets can continue to perform well at elevated price earning ratios, with the FED not being accommodative in the near future and rates staying high. In the longer term we most likely have a 3.5% inflation environment not 2%, the current inflation numbers in the states do not merit any cuts in the intermediate or near term If War does break out in the Middle East and escalates the markets are likely to be punished If Trump does come into power it's likely Ukraine is not the last country to be attacked by Russia, David went on to mention that he thinks China will benefit enormously from a middle eastern conflict and will be able to ring fence and control Taiwan and will use the distraction as an opportunity to expand its control of the Asian basin so most likely we're going to see a number of global conflicts erupt in 2024 We move from FOMO to FEAR #Equity #markets #war #bonds #inflation #gold #bitcoin #trump #China #middleeast #Iran #isreal Vix ‘fear gauge’ soars on Middle East tensions and interest rate shift - https://on.ft.com/4aFKTns via @FT

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Not surprisingly, this latest expansion of hostilities in the Middle East has been a major driver of recent market volatility. How much of this week's market movement is driven by overly-rich valuations - versus geopolitical concerns alone - and what are the asset classes to pay closer attention to in the event of further geopolitical instability? Check out the latest insights on this topic from Andrew Graham, CFA of Jackson Square Capital in Reuters!

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Are #secondaries the solution to #MENA's Exits? In a recent conversation with Basil M. from Key Capital, we discussed the emerging potential for IPOs, secondaries and exits in the market. Secondary funds, which target shares in early stage investment rounds at a discount, can stimulate market participation by providing liquidity to existing shareholders without diluting company equity. These investments enable early investors to exit, allowing founders to clean up their cap table and receive a potential fresh injection of capital. Of course, the secondaries market in the #MENA region is still emerging, but given the global increase in secondary investments, perhaps it’s not too long before it becomes more commonplace in the region. Check out my full conversation with Basil M. for more MAGNiTT insights: https://lnkd.in/gT5X5Q7D PS: Great recent pod from the Unreasonable Podcast discussing just this and the impact in the South East Asian Venture space. Well worth a lisen! CC: Hian Goh, Vishal Harnal and Michael Blakey #webinar #exits #IPOs #venturecapital #startups

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Wealth Management Opportunities In The GCC Surge A good article here on the wealth management opportunity in the GCC. However, I think the article missed one key point, the region is a technology centre. Most wealthy individuals and families are also using technology based wealth management solutions such as baraka (YC S21) and MidChains alongside their human advisors or family office. If you aren’t building these types of relationships with technology centric firms, you are going to be left behind. F Partners Read The Full Article Here: https://lnkd.in/e_qEa6kt #singlefamilyoffice #familyoffice #familyoffices #privatemarkets #privateinvestors

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On the back of the very good Bloomberg article published yesterday by Javier Blas (🇸🇦Saudi Arabia and 🇮🇷Iran Become Unlikely Bedfellows) - one of our analysts, Syed Osama, shares his vision about Saudi Arabia's challenges. 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia’s economy is at a critical juncture as it navigates lower oil revenues while advancing its Vision 2030 diversification plan. The kingdom recently reduced its 2024 growth forecast to 0.8%, down from 4.4%, and anticipates a budget deficit of 2.9% of GDP due to declining oil prices, which currently sit below the country's fiscal breakeven of $96 per barrel. 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia faces the challenge of balancing its Vision 2030 goals with maintaining fiscal sustainability amidst declining oil revenues and budget deficits 👇 Read More: https://lnkd.in/eJ_-YF6f Written by Syed Muhammad Osama Rizvi and published on EklipX Research

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More and more #GCC #SWF and other regional players are looking at #education as a serious asset class from an #infrastructure and #growth perspective. Expect more emphasis and interest to grow from here. #k12education #earlyyears #m&a #privateequity #growthcapital #edtech

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A Dubai-based fund-of-funds focused on backing emerging venture investors, has raised $5 million of the $10 million target for its debut fund. Amkan Ventures is connecting family offices in the Gulf region and emerging U.S.-based VCs — two groups unlikely to otherwise meet. A fund led by Female GP Raida Daouk El Jisr decided to raise a fund after helping a number of family offices and other institutions vet and invest in American venture firms and tech startups as a consultant and building out another prior employer's portfolio. #fundraising #investment #GCC #USfunds #venturecapitalists #limitedpartners #generalpartners #Funds #LPs #GPs #VCs #emergingfunds #fundmangergs

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Early on Monday morning, it was announced that CI Financial (ticker: CIX) had reached a deal to be taken private at a price of $32/share. I wrote a post back in September about the pitfalls of media outlets playing a pivotal role in shaping investor sentiment, and the fact that their main role is to sell newspapers. I highlighted a particular gloomy article in the Globe and Mail that made CI Financial look like a bad investment idea because of the company’s strategy and level of debt, and the company itself was looking to buy back large amounts of its own stock and even issued three substantial issuer bids throughout 2024. Shareholders that held on to those shares (including our clients) have been rewarded handsomely in the past couple of months as shares of CIX had risen to around $24, making CI Financial our largest Canadian equity holding in our discretionary model, even prior to Monday’s gain of around 30% after the announcement.  As I mentioned in the past post, we have owned CI Financial in our discretionary model since our initial purchase in February 2023 at around $15.30/share. Since then, we added to CIX several times at prices ranging between $12.48 to $15.20 as our thesis that the market was severely undervaluing the stock remained undeterred. For clients that have been with us since we first bought CIX in February 2023, this equates to well over a 100% gain on the stock in less than two years (before including the healthy dividend it paid along the way).  Since the stock didn’t start its major rise until last month, even clients that have only been with us a short time would have participated significantly in this positive development. Please reach out to us a https://lnkd.in/g8vatpq to learn more about how we manage money for our clients. #investing #portfoliomanagement #stocks #ordprivatewealthmanagement

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There are a lot of articles and headlines being written about the impact of the middle east conflict on #oil prices but the price chart "zoomed out" tells a slightly different story. #inflaiton #investing

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Join us to discuss #Neom and other Arms of the PIF at Strong AI Summit. Sanabil commits approximately $3 billion annually to private investments, Sanabil allocates 50% of its portfolio to venture capital, 30% to private equity. In a strategic move on August 7, 2024, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman issued a decision to transfer 4% of the state's ownership in Saudi #Aramco to Sanabil Investments, valued at $77.3 billion. 🔅 Sanabil's Partnerships and Investments: 🔹️ Strategic Partnerships: Sanabil collaborates with over 50 leading venture capital and private equity firms, including Blackstone, KKR, Andreessen Horowitz, and General Atlantic. 🔹️ Diverse Investment Portfolios: Sanabil actively invests in multiple asset classes: ✔️ Venture Capital Portfolio: Allocating $2 billion annually, Sanabil is committed to fueling growth in startups and innovative enterprises. ✔️ Private Equity Portfolio: Sanabil's investments include industry leaders across various sectors, fostering sustainable growth. ✔️ Liquid Assets Portfolio: Sanabil ensures liquidity and stability by investing in quickly convertible assets. 🔅 Sanabil's Strategy: 🔹️ Focus on Innovation and Growth: Sanabil targets early-stage investments, with a particular focus on high-growth sectors such as technology and healthcare. 🔹️ Future Vision: Since its founding in 2009, Sanabil has embraced a forward-looking investment approach, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 by pursuing higher-risk, higher-return opportunities. 🔹️ Seizing Global Opportunities: Sanabil is strategically positioned to capture and maximize value from the most promising global investments, contributing to accelerated economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Credits Mohammed AlQahtani Read books of Winston Ma, CFA Esq. , moderator of Strong AI Summit and this Mastermind https://lnkd.in/dfQMNSKJ #venturecapital #pif #investment

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Demystifying Private Credit: #VentureDebt lending peaked in MENA last year, following four years of consecutive growth. But why? Next week I will discuss this and a lot more around Private Credit with Nathan Yonghyun Kwon from Shorooq Partners. As MAGNiTT continues to develop its coverage across Emerging Market Private Capital, Private Credit is a key pillar that has been historically under represented. Attend our upcoming conversation where we will: - Delve deep into the dynamics of #privatecredit - What role venture debt plays in the #MENA region - Identify the opportunities and challenges in a high interest environment - Examine the key trends and developments shaping the private credit market Do you have a question you want me to ask? Let me know below 👇 Make sure to save your spot for June 5th at 3PM: https://lnkd.in/dMrjdKXB #webinar #venturecapital #venturedebt #startups

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While the west has almost completely halted capital investment in China, Middle East sovereigns continue to be active as Qatar's sovereign wealth fund Qatar Investment Authority acquires a 10% stake in China Asset Management Co., Ltd. Co., one of the nation’s largest mutual fund firms. The stake will be sold by leading Chinese private equity fund manager Primavera Capital Group, creating a rare exit in the current China private equity market! The Chinese mutual fund industry expanded to more than 30 trillion yuan ($4.1 trillion) in April even after a stock-market rout earlier in the year, and is poised to continue to achieve attractive forward growth driven by domestic demand, in spite of the slowdown in global foreign capital. The Qatari's, alongside sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to actively deploy capital into China and there is no evidence of this slowing anytime soon. #china #sovereignwealthfunds #capitalmarkets #qatar #saudiarabia #unitedarabemirates #middleeast #mutualfunds https://lnkd.in/gBqqVSCH

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Hello (again) from the Qatar Economic Forum! A few points, let’s jump right in on some tech- and AI-thoughts: - The Qatar Investment Authority looks for long-term, mostly minority partner investments. The GCC’s financial negotiation power has increased over the past 18 months. Super open and highly sophisticated team - My back of the envelope: a staggering +3 trillion USD AUM of US/EU-based asset manager CEOs/CIOs came to Doha this week (plus SWFs on top), including: - EQT Group (CEO Christian Sinding): "European tech is currently not competitive with American tech, esp. since Silicon Valley benefits from the entire value-chain ecosystem". EQT likes tech service AI infrastructure, as only a few have the competence, but most companies will need them. Great to see a strong European player in Doha! - Brookfield Asset Management (CEO Bruce Flatt): look at their USD 10-12bn investment with Microsoft for green power generation assets in the US (in addition/my thought: look at Sam Altman’s SPACs “AltA” now trading under Oklo Inc) - Qatar Minister of Communications: we are working on Arabic LLMs. “Like in a restaurant, noone wants to see the kitchen, but everyone likes to eat the food.” - HSBC (CEO Noel Quinn): “build relationships, transactions will follow” after his 37 years at HSBC, a phenomenal career. Last but not least: Thank you to an unbelievably talented, hard-working and happy team of 700 team-members of the QEF who made this week so special. You guys actually defined what a “world class event” is, you created opportunities for us 2,000 delegates from all over the world to meet, discuss and think together – a big, big Thank You to all of you! #QatarEconomicForum #QEF2024 #Bloomberg

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Equity Distributions with High Cash Flow CLO Equity is having another stellar year. Reported IRRs for CLO Equity: ~15% YTD for many of the top CLO managers. CLOs start with a warehouse line allowing CLO managers to accumulate/ramp their BSL portfolio of performing & highly diversified loans (~200 BSLs when CLO is priced). The most favorable CLO warehouse lines have non-marked-to-market facilities with roughly 4x leverage. Bank facilities provided with favorable terms are about SOFR +125 to +150bp range. During the warehouse ramp, equity seeks to earn 20-30% IRR, but this can vary widely, however it’s for a short period (~3 – 6 months), so the MOIC is low as it’s just a component that drives the overall CLO equity return. The BSL market is performing well. I expect the credit markets to perform well in this environment with default rates for BSL declining in the coming year, which should prove positive for CLOs debt and equity. AAA CLO tranches represent about 60% of the CLO cap stack and AAA’s have tightened to ~+130 from its wide earlier this year of S+150. The CLO equity arb is driven by the difference between the rate earned on the BSL portfolio vs. the liability costs (and admin costs). Holding all things constant, tighter liability costs are accretive for CLO equity investors. Credit selection and asset management is critical to performance as the best CLO managers employ dedicated teams of investment professional’s expert in loan underwriting, building, and managing highly diversified CLO portfolios. Strong credit profile is key to maintain low default rates, and its best to avoid CCCs, as mitigating risk is critical to performance. CLO equity also benefits from reinvestment during the investment period, active management that can add alpha via relative value, and repricing/extensions of CLO liabilities later in the CLO life span. CLO equity holders earn strong current cash distributions for well performing deals, with the potential to earn mid-teens IRRs, strong DPI and MOICs. The added kick is when the CLO manager shares a portion (10-20%) of its management fees they earn from managing the CLO (~40 bps) with the CLO equity investors. This fee sharing arrangement was first introduced post-GFC when CLO managers raised CLO equity funds required under risk-retention requirements as The Volcker Rule was introduced. Since the Volker rule no longer applies to U.S. CLOs, fee sharing arrangements are less prevalent today, but available from select managers. For these reasons and more, I am a proponent of CLO Equity and believe there is a place within in broader portfolio to hold these high yielding assets. Big shout out to Marathon Asset Management's CLO team who just closed Bryant Park 2024-24, a $405M CLO yesterday, bringing Marathon’s CLO capital market transactions to $2.4B YTD.

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The prevailing zeitgeist around UAE capital markets is too short-sighted. Breathless ‘boomer’ commentators now wax eloquent about each day’s gyrations (for instance, that of Phoenix), along with corporate moves such as restructurings (by Drake & Scull, Uniion Properties) and buybacks (that by IHC). We await with bated breath from the same boomer analysts to point out that more than a third of returns in the domestic markets have been in the form of dividends, and not reflected in the stock price. My column for Gulf News today explores the shortcomings of the prevailing market 'wisdom' as it pertains to the fixation on UAE IPOs and first day gains. #economics #business #uae #dubai #gulfnews #news #businessnews #macroeconomics #dubaibusiness #dubaibusinessnews #finance #dubaifinance #financenews #uaenews #uaebusiness #uaeeconomy #dubaieconomy #assetprices #inflation #interestrates #moneysupply #propertymarket #dubaipropertymarket #realestate #dubairealestate #offplan #uaeinterestrates #markettrends #economictrends #banking #uaebank #centralbank #paymentplans #assetmarket #supplychain #economicgrowth #inventory #mortgagerate #uaemortgagerate #dubaimortgage #sameerlakhani #globalcapitalpartners #recession #boom #bust #monetarypolicy #uaemonetarypolicy #analysis #economicanalysis #marketanalysis #primarymarket #secondarymarket #ipo #adx #dfm #capitalmarket #capitalasset #stockmarket #stocks #uaestocks #dubaistocks #loans #credit #trading #leveragedtrading #fertiglobe #dewa #borouge #tecom #alansari #yahsat #valuation #value #alef #phoenix #crypto #alef #education #ai #artificialintelligence #dividends #capitalgains #returns #dividendreturns #capitalreturns #returnoninvestment #investindubai

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From the fad of meme stocks to the recent trend of real estate launches with alluringly favorable payment plans, it seems that all investment common sense has been thrown out the window. My column in Gulf News today discusses the issues with this current market zeitgeist, and can be found here: https://lnkd.in/d9HUqwa4 #uae #dubai #economics #business #businessnews #news #finance #financenews #market #capitalmarkets #markettrends #memestocks #stockmarket #equity #equityfinance #investing #investment #roaringkitty #valuation #valueinvesting #growth #capitalassets #inflation #realestate #realestatemarket #property #propertymarket #dubairealestate #dubairealestatemarket #dubaiproperty #dubaipropertymarket #paymentplan #ipo #dubaiipo #uaeipo #primarymarket #secondarymarket #portfolio #wealth #value #valuecreation #wealthmanagement #warrenbuffet #us #usa #america #artificalintelligence #ai #speculation #salik #parkin #auction #marketplace #romanempire #rome #history #analysis #bubble #socialmedia #media #interestrates #monetarypolicy #aesop #pricegrowth #price #growth #gcp #globalcapitalpartners #sameerlakhani #gulfnews

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October 8, 2024 *Yields stabilizing* The bond market rally is taking a breather for now, especially in the aftermath of rising conflicts in the middle east. As a result, the bond prices have stopped increasing. As implied in my note at the start of this month, https://lnkd.in/dgFcwnav the long-term bonds prices have more than incorporated the current and expected improvements in economy, whereas prices of short-term bonds offer better investment opportunity. Therefore, the difference between both ends should continue to narrow down by decline in price of longer-term bonds and increase in prices of short-term bonds. Besides direct investors, anyone invested indirectly through Shariah compliant / conventional Income/Money Market Funds, should watch weighted average time to maturity to estimate their forecast returns.

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Asking for money is hard. If you add the Tower of Babel into the equation, well, getting it is almost impossible. The article could be titled: 'The world is flocking to where the money currently is, but a lack of understanding of how to obtain it makes it a close to impossible task Last year, I spoke with a high-profile EU political and financial advisor in Abu Dhabi, and he was close to despair at how hard-headed some of his EU-based clients are in not understanding that... well, you need to understand and learn the principles of the fountain from which you want to drink. The Tower of Babel is not only about language; it's about cultural differences. Expecting the world to always adapt to you, even when you need the world, doesn't work like this. #culture #business #investing #uae

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